August 31, 2005

College Football Preview – Part 4/7, BIG TEN



BIG TEN


I expect this to be a big year for the Big Ten. 4 teams will battle for the conference championship in Iowa, Michigan, Ohio State, and Purdue. Michigan and Ohio State has the most talent while Purdue has an easier schedule and the fact that they lost 5 games last year (see Purdue’s Prediction for more info). I think Iowa Michigan and Ohio State will beat each other up enough for Purdue to sneak in to win the Big Ten. The second tier teams this year will be Penn State, Michigan State, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. Northwestern, Illinois, and Indiana once again wraps up the bottom. Illinois and Indiana are both breaking in new respectable coaches, so I look for them to improve in the next few years.

This should be know as the linebacker conference. AJ Hawk (OSU), Anthony Schlegel (OSU), Bobby Carpenter (OSU), Abdul Hodge (Iowa), Chad Greenway (Iowa), Dan Connor (PSU), Paul Posluszny (PSU), Tim McGarigle (NU), and Pierre Woods (UM) are all capable of winning awards by the end of the year. There are also some very electrifying athletes on offense such as Ted Ginn of Ohio State and Steve Breaston of Michigan, 2 athletes who can change the game in a flash of the eye whether it is on a punt return, reverse, or a reception. There are a wealthy amount of young guns behind center too. Chad Henne had a remarkable freshman year as did Drew Tate. Brandon Kirsch has some high expectations as the 1st year starter at Purdue. It won’t be the Big Ten without an ample of running backs. Michael Hart and Laurence Maroney are both capable of rapping up multiple 200 yard games and are head and shoulders above the other running backs in the conference.

ILLINOIS



Offense
Illinois was pretty much a door mat for the Big Ten. Then in 2001, led by QB Kurt Kittner, they had a 5-game turnaround to go 10-1 and went to the Sugar Bowl. Since that season, Illinois has reverted back to its door mat ways going 1-11 in 2003 and 3-8 last year which led to the firing of head coach Ron Turner. Ron Zook starts anew after a tumultuous tenure at Florida. There will be a QB battle heading into the new regime with Tim Brasic being the mobile QB while Kisan Flakes, Chris Pazan, Billy Garza are more drop-back QBs. Brasic will be the early favorite for having some experience and being the type of mobile QB Zook likes. The focal point on offense will be Pierre Thomas (#32 RB) who had 893 yards, 8 TDs, and an impressive 5.9 ypc last year. EB Halsey is a dependable backup to Thomas having led the team in rushing in 2003. The 2 backs are down right scary if both can remain injury-free for 2005. Due to Thomas and Halsey, true frosh Rashard Mendenhall (#8 RB) might not see any action this year. Due to the QB rotation and injuries, the receiver production was meager. Jason Davis the FB was 2nd on the team in receptions. WR Kendrick Jones had a fine season despite all that having 47 catches. Jones returns as well as DaJuan Warren, a promising sophomore, and Lonnie Hurst, a dependable receiver coming back from injury. Also in the mix is last year’s recruit Derrick McPhearson (#23 WR) who spent last year at Fork Union Military Academy. Melvin Bryant lines up at TE with some speed to burn. The O-line loses a draft pick and an all-conference honorable mention. Guard Matt Maddox moves to center to replace Duke Preston (4th round pick). Martin O’Donnell (#7 OL) is only a sophomore and looks to improve on his 10-start redshirt freshman season.

Defense
The line was simply appalling in 2004 giving up 194 rushing ypg and only recording 12 sacks. 3 starters return this year, and they also add a good player in Ismail Abdunafi (#5JC DL). Chris Norwell moved to the D-line from the O-line and had a fine season last year with 40 tackles. Abdunafi and Norwell should hold down the inside and cut down on that 194 rushing yards allowed per game. Sophomore Xavier Fulton and Scott Moss need to put more pressure on the opposing QB for this line to improve. The Illini loses leading tackler and sack leader Matt Sinclair at LB and also Mike Gawelek and his 73 tackles. So. J Leman does return to build upon a 56-tackle freshman campaign. He will be joined by plenty of youth in redshirt freshman Sam Carson (#23 LB), Remond Willis, and sophomore Anthony Thornhill. A solid secondary returns 3 starters, but loses leader Kelvin Hayden who was a 2nd round NFL draft pick. Justin Harrison and Morris Virgil returns as the leading tacklers at SS and FS respectively. Travis Williams is a solid backup with starting experience. Alan Ball will be joined by speedy Charles Bailey at the cornerback positions. With the returning starters and Coach Ron Zook’s defensive background, this defense should put up much better numbers this year.

Prediction
Ron Zook never got a shot with the Florida fans down in Gainsville. Despite his recruiting efforts, which Florida ranked 7th, 2nd, and 13th in 2004, 2003 and 2002, he never managed less than 4 losses a season. It’s tough to get 10-win seasons when you have to face Tennessee, Georgia, and Florida State on a yearly basis, so I don’t think there’s anything wrong with Zook’s win-loss record at Florida. He inherits a bad team at Illinois, but does have some weapons in Pierre Thomas, EB Halsey, and Kendrick Jones on offense and Justin Harrison and Morris Virgil on defense. There are some tough out of conference games to be played against Rutgers and at California. The Big Ten schedule is also very tough going on the road against 3 top teams in the conference in Iowa, Ohio State, and Purdue. I look for another sub-.500 season until Zook gets the program under his full grasp within 2 or 3 years. I think Zook is a terrific pickup for the Illini and fully believe that he will succeed at Illinois.

INDIANA



Offense
This is an offense depleted of its skilled position players from a year ago. The line comes back in tact with center Chris Jahnke leaving; however, Chris Mangiero is back after starting the first 4 games before getting hurt last year. He will be joined by seniors Brandon Hatcher, Adam Hines, Isaac Sowells, and junior Justin Frye. Sowells is a monster at 6-3, 330 pounds and squats close to 700 pounds! 2 years on the line together should have gelled this unit enough to improve upon the 27 sacks given up last year and only 3.2 yards per carry on the ground. QB Matt LoVecchio graduated, leaving the job to sophomore Blake Powers who saw some action last year. Powers, 6-4 228, is similar in size to Ben Roethlisberger who 1st year head coach Terry Hoeppner had as his QB at Miami (OH). Mike Vlahogeorge and Graeme McFarland are also in the mix at QB. Leading rusher BenJarvus Green-Ellis had 794 yards last year, but transferred to Mississippi during the off season. 2 seniors in Chris Taylor and Yamar Washington will both get playing time at RB this year. Washington had a serious knee injury in 2003 and should be back to full strength for 2005. I believe Indiana will put up solid rushing numbers provided the depth at both RB and OL. Courtney Roby will be missed with 55 catches for 810 yards and 7 TDs in 2004, but senior Jahkeen Gilmore definitely has the ability to be the go-to receiver with his sub-4.4 speed. Marcus Thigpen and Courtney Clency add more speed to the position while James Hardy has a 6-7 frame and soft hands to boot. A drop in production is expected when you lose the school’s all time receiving yards leader in Roby.

Defense
The defense returns 9 starters. Combine that with new defensive coordinators Brian George and Joe Palcic, Indiana should finally see improvement from a defense that allows 5.0 ypc rushing and only having 52 sacks for the previous 3 seasons. Victor Adeyanju, Kenny Kendal, and Ben Ishola are all capable of putting pressure on the QB from the end position. Kyle Killion is the leader of this defense having 107 tackles and 5 sacks as an outside linebacker last year. John Pannozzo moves over from FB to fill the middle LB position while Jake Powers plays on the weak side. The defense gave up 256 passing yards per game last year as one of the worst passing defenses in the nation. 3 starters return to the secondary including young corners Leslie Majors and Tracy Porter, who made Big Ten’s all freshmen team last year. Buster Larkins starterd all 11 games last year and should provide consistency for the pair of sophomores in Majors and Porter. Aaron Mitchell is undersized while Will Meyers is coming back from an injury. The two will battle for the SS position while Will Lumpkins is the senior starter at FS replacing Herana-Daze Jones.

Prediction
Out is Jerry DiNardo, who always seems to be coaching BCS conference door mat teams in Indiana and Vanderbilt, and in is Terry Hoeppner, who helped put the other Miami (of Ohio) on the college football map. Don’t put much hope in an Indiana turnaround for this year due to the lack of position players on offense. Terry Hoeppner will need a few years to transform this into his team. Even Antwaan Randle El couldn’t do better than a 5-6 record at Indiana, so have patience.

IOWA



Offense
It is amazing that Iowa was 10-2 last year despite a non-existent running game (871 yards (2.0 ypc) on the season and 214 of those came in the opener against Kent State!). QB Drew Tate (#18 QB) basically had to put the team on his shoulders being a 1st year starter. All he did was throw for 2,786 yards on 62.1% completion rate and a 20-14 TD-INT ratio, good enough for 1st Team Big Ten. Tate and the Iowa wrapped up 2004 in fine fashion when he hit Warren Holloway for a 56-yard touchdown while time ran out to beat LSU 30-25. The Iowa running backs should provide more support this year for Tate after an unbelievably injury-plagued 2004. Cory Mack was dismissed and Shonn Greene didn’t qualify before the season even started. FB AJ Johnson was suspended for the season. His backup Marcus Schnoor tore his ACL against Kent State while RBs Jermelle Lewis, Albert Young, Champ Davis, and Marques Simmons all got hurt, leaving 6th string RB Sam Brownlee as the leading rusher in 3 games. Simmons returns as the starter with Damian Sims and true frosh Corey Robertson (#30 RB) as his backups. Don’t expect the Hawkeyes to rush for less than 1,000 yards on the season again. Capital One Bowl hero Warren Holloway is gone, but the top 3 receivers return in Clinton Solomon, Ed Hinkel, and TE Scott Chandler. Trey Stross (#24 WR) and Marcus Wilson are this year’s key recruits at WR. The offensive line looked horrible on paper last year, allowing 40 sacks and only paving the way for 2.0 ypc on the ground, but we all know the running backs were all hurt, allowing opposing D-lines to tee-off on Drew Tate. Head coach Kirk Ferentz is a great OL coach and always does a fine job with the line. This year’s line features talented Mike Jones (#2 OL), Brian Ferentz (Kirk’s son), and Mike Elgin as the starters while highly talented Seth Olsen (#47 OL) and Marshal Yanda (#65JC OL) backs them up. This year’s recruits on the OL are one of the best groups in the nation and should be fabulous 2 or 3 years down the line. This group includes Dan Doering (#3 OL), Dace Richardson (#5 OL), Rafael Eubanks (#16 OL), and Kyle Calloway (#70 OL).

Defense
Drew Tate shouldn’t take all the credits for Iowa’s 2004 season. The defense was spectacular for most of the season. They lose 7 starters including a pair of all-conference linemen in Tim Roth and Jonathan Babineaux, a pair of NFL draft picks. All 4 starters are gone, and almost all of the backups are underclassmen. At this point, all I can say is that Richard Kittrell (#32 DL), George Eshareturi, Matt Kroul, Kenny Iwebema, Ted Bentler, Ryan Bain, and Alex Kanellis will be in the mix for the line, since there aren’t any experience here. Iwebema will be counted on to make an immediate impact as a pass rusher. With this young line, the linebackers will be counted on for leadership, and there are plenty of talent with leading tacklers Abdul Hodge and Chad Greenway who had 116 and 113 tackles last year respectively. Both are all-conference for the past 2 years. The secondary returns 3 starters including 2 senior cornerbacks. Jovon Johnson and Antwan Allen both had 4 picks last year. Marcus Paschal returns at SS as the 3rd leading tackler on the team last year, but will have to battle a torn ACL suffered in the bowl game last year. If he can’t comeback in time, Miguel Merrick and Charles Godfrey will be the safeties.

Prediction
Sometimes the numbers just don’t tell the whole story. Iowa finished 117th in rushing in Division I-A last year, yet was an amazing 10-2. In their only 2 losses, the Hawkeyes only had 354 yards. Despite only 168 yards against Penn State, they won with the bizarre score of 6-4. In another game against Minnesota, the defense gave up 337 yards on the ground alone, yet was able to muster out a 29-27 win. Call it luck or the Ferentz-factor, either way, Iowa is the anti-Purdue, in other words, they find a way to win close games. The offensive output should increase this year, but the D-line is very vulnerable. Every one of their in-conference opponents are capable of putting up 200 yards on the ground against Iowa, especially Minnesota and Michigan. Both of those games are at home, so at least that helps a little. Faced with one of the tougher schedules in the Big Ten, I expect Iowa to lose at least 3 games this year, but this should be a year when both the O-line and D-line matures for 2006.

MICHIGAN



Offense
After starting QB John Navarre and starting RB Chris Perry departed after the 2003 season, 2004 looked very cloudy for the Wolverines. No doubt, there were QBs and RBs battling for playing time during the first few weeks, but after the dust was settled, two true frosh had very good seasons as the starters in QB Chad Henne (#1 QB) and RB Mike Hart (#11 RB). Henne grasped the college game very fast and is expected to do great things in just his 2nd year. His backup was last year’s starter (but never played due to injury), Matt Gutierrez (#12 QB) who has more speed. You would think a running back with 1455 yards from the previous season will be a lock at starter; however, this is not the case for Mike Hart. He will have the upper hand in winning the starting RB job, but will have to fend off true frosh phenom Kevin Grady (#2 RB). Grady is 230 pounds, but has 4.5 speed. Also in the mix is last year’s 2nd leading rusher Max Martin (#21 RB). With the departure of All-American Braylon Edwards, there will definitely be a drop off in talent, but Jr. Steve Breaston, who is already a great return man, and So. Adrian Arrington (#10 WR) look to become the next generation of great Michigan WRs. Sr. Jason Avant (#10 WR) is a seasoned receiver who will be counted on for big plays and leadership, especially early in the season. A top recruit WR will join the team this year in Mario Manningham (#6 WR), but I don’t expect him to see much time on the field (possibly redshirt). The offense will have another great line to work with despite losing All-American David Baas. Matt Lentz and Adam Stenavich are a pair of seniors who belong with the best of the OLs in the country. Jake Long made 2nd team all-conference despite being only a redshirt freshman last year.

Defense
The line will be strong this year led by seniors Gabe Watson (#5 DL) and Pat Massey (#7 DL). Watson is a tremendous NFL prospect who demands double teaming with his 6-4, 331 frame. Massey is a good rusher on the end who had 5 sacks last year. LaMarr Woodley (#2 LB) and Pierre Woods (#9 DL) are two players who can play either the end or outside linebacker positions. Both are good pass rushers as Woodley had 4 sacks and 12 tackles for loss last year while Woods had 7 sacks in 2003 before missing much of last year due to injuries. Scott McClintock (#9 LB) will be the seasoned veteran returning starter at the MLB position. He is good against the run and also covers well in passing situations. Prescott Burgess (#1 DB) is another blue chipper out of high school. He has been converted to the linebacker position after switching to the 3-4. There are also several blue chippers backing up the front seven such as Marques Slocum (#6 OL), Terrance Taylor (#11 DL), Jeremy Van Alstyne (#17 LB), Will Johnson (#29 DL), William Paul (#21 DL), Eugene Germany (#15 LB), and James McKinney (#13 DL) on the defensive line and Shawn Crable (#2 DL), Chris Graham (#30 LB), and Brandon Logan (#24 LB) for linebackers. Marlin Jackson and Ernest Shazor are gone, leaving 2 huge voids to fill on defense. Ryan Mundy (#5 DB)and Leon Hall (#23 DB) are back with their 21 combined starts last year at FS and CB respectively. Like the other positions, there is a plethora of talent in Morgan Trent (#19 WR), Charles Stewart (#26 DB), Darnell Hood (#33 RB), Anton Campbell (#33 RB), Brandon Harrison (#19 DB), and Antonio Bass (#22 DB).

Prediction
Do you want an interesting fact? Michigan has lost its 1st road game of the season for the last 5 years! They lost twice to Notre Dame (2002 and 2004), Oregon in 2003, Washington in 2001, and UCLA in 2000. Obviously, the Michigan AD is aware of this situation and did not schedule an away non-conference game this year. The Wolverines kick off conference play with two tough road games at Wisconsin and at Michigan State; both are games in which Michigan can be upset. There is more certainty on offense going into the season compared to last year, but the defense is somewhat questionable. Despite having tremendous talent on the DL, Michigan only had 21 sacks last year. The pass rush was almost nonexistent in the last 4 games having only 3 sacks. Part of the reason is that the final 4 opponents of ’04 averaged 257 rushing yards per game against Michigan, which is another doubt coming into the season, whether or not the run defense has the stamina to last an entire season. The rushing D was solid at the beginning of last season giving up only 71.6 yards per game over 8 games. In that stretch, only 2 teams managed more than 100 yards on UM. The DBs are also another concern for Michigan. A CB and SS need to step up and try to replace Marlin Jackson and Ernest Shazor, which are tough tasks to do. Despite these issues, there is no doubt that the offense will be solid and that the defense has enough talent to fix those problems. Don’t make the mistake of taking Michigan out of your national title contender conversations.

MICHIGAN STATE



Offense
With a mobile QB, the Spartans were able to rush for an impressive 2,862 yards on 5.7 ypc in 2004. 4 players rushed for over 600 yards, and 3 of them returns for this year, the only loss being DeAndra Cobb to the NFL. Jason Teague and Jehuu Caulcrick are back as dependable runners but lack the break away speed. Teague has the average RB body while Caulcrick is a load at 240 pounds. True frosh Javon Ringer (#27 RB) might see some time because of his 4.35 speed. QB Drew Stanton (#16 QB) had 687 rushing yards and 1600 more passing in 2004. He split time last year with Damon Dowdell and Stephen Reaves, both of whom are gone this year, so Stanton will be the definite starter. Backing him up will be redshirt freshman Brian Hoyer (#23 QB) and Domenic Natale, both of whom could see action provided Stanton was injury-prone in the past. Stanton will have a solid group of receivers to work with in Matt Trannon (#16 TE), Kyle Brown (#6 WR), Aaron Alexander (#20 QB), and Agim Shabaj. Trannon is a basketball player with good size and can be a good NFL prospect. Brown is a physical receiver with speed to burn. The line returns 3 starters on the left side while prospect Roland Martin (#2 OL) could fill the RG position as a redshirt freshman. The line was the Spartan’s strength last year paving the way for the running game and only allowing 8 sacks all year. This year should be no different with a mobile QB in Stanton.

Defense
The defense loses several impact players in Ronald Stanley, Jason Harmon, Roderick Maples, and Kevin Vickerson. Clifton Ryan and Brandon McKinney returns after allowing 172 rushing yards a game in 2004 with only 20 sacks. Domata Peko (#10JC DL) will be battling for the DT position with JC transfer Bobby Jones while Michael Bazemore, Ryan, and Nick Smith look to get into the backfield more often at the end positions. David Herron is a starter at LB who is back for another 90+ tackles season. He will be joined by Kaleb Thornhill and Sir Darean Adams, 2 sophomores looking to gain experience fast. Smith was a safety before being moved to a hybrid SS/LB position by head coach John L. Smith, but as of August 29, Smith was moved back to SS, probably due to the inexperience in the secondary where the lack of experience is the biggest concern. The only returning starter in the secondary, Jaren Hayes, was suspended indefinitely by Coach Smith so Demond Williams will take his spot while Aston Watson has the other CB position. Greg Cooper (#11 DB) won the job at SS over sophomore Michael Bell, while Cole Corey backs up Smith. If Hayes can’t return to the secondary in the near future, this could be a long and ugly season for the Spartans.

Prediction
Michigan State definitely has a season to look forward to with lots of excitement on offense. However, if the defense doesn’t mature in time, there could be a lot of shoot outs for Spartan fans. A key to success is the turnover margin. Michigan State had only 1 season with a plus turnover margin in the last 5 years. Not surprisingly, that was the year they had the best record within the 5 years, going 8-4 in 2003. The September schedule is fairly easy with a potential to go 4-0; however, it will be easy to overlook games at Notre Dame and at Illinois, since Michigan and Ohio State follow those games. The home game against Michigan will be huge. Despite all the national title talks by Michigan, I won’t be surprised if the Spartans pull a big upset against the Wolverines. I’m marking MSU down for a bowl appearance this year since it would be unusual for John L. Smith to go bowl-less for 2 straight years.

MINNESOTA



Offense
Head Coach Glen Mason has established Minnesota as having one of the best running systems in the nation. For 4 straight years, Minnesota has averaged more than 200 rushing yards per game. The Golden Gophers had 2 players rush for more than 1,000 yards in both 2003 and 2004. This year, RB Laurence Maroney will have the ball to himself with the departure of Marion Barber III. Maroney combined for 2,534 yards in his first 2 years and 22 TDs. I expect him to have at least 1,700 yards this year. He will get a lot of help from a small (no one over 300 pounds), but effective line including 1st team all-conference C Greg Eslinger and G Mark Setterstrom. The line paved the way for 5.4, 5.5, 4.7, and 5.1 ypc the previous 4 years, and should duplicate those numbers again this year. Bryan Cupito will start at QB although it doesn’t make much sense with Cupito being a pocket QB; however, the more mobile Adam Ernst gave up football due to injuries while John Carlson moved to DB. Mike Maciejowski will be Cupito’s backup. Maciejowski is a good leader who learns fast and can be the starter in the near future. 4 of the top receiving yards leaders return for 2005, but then again, this is Minnesota where they practically run on all 4 downs. Ernie Wheelwright and Jared Ellerson are a pair of receivers capable of going deep to stretch the defense. If needed, this is a receiving corps that is capable of scoring fast or run the 2 minute drill. Provided that QB Cupito has a strong arm, it’s not completely ridiculous to see Minnesota run for 300 yards and pass for 300 yards in the same game this year.

Defense
Despite having one of the best offenses in the Big Ten, the defense is porous if not down right awful in 2004. This is the defense that gave up 238 on the ground to Indiana and 372 passing yards to Illinois State! Sack leader Darrell Reid is gone with his 7.5 sacks, so either Keith Lipka or Eric Clark needs to step up with their game. Mark Losli and Anthony Montgomery should be fine in the middle against the run provided they combine for 52 starts at DT. LB Kyle McKenzie returns as the leading tackler last year. He was pushed by Leland Jones during the spring but his experience won the job in the end. Mario Reese will line up at LB this year despite playing as a DE last year. He could be used to pressure the QB in situations. John Shevlin has great speed being recruited as a DB. He had a good game in the Music City Bowl which should carry over into this season. There are also some real talents on the bench with Jones and Alex Daniels (#34 LB). Trumaine Banks is back as CB. He will be joined by Jamal Harris who saw time as a redshirt freshman last year. Last year’s starter at SS Terrance Campbell will be playing behind Brandon Owens who has 4.5 speed. John Pawielski is back as the FS and is very good against the run.

Prediction
Last year’s regular season ended in a bad fashion, losing to Iowa 27-29 when the Golden Gophers out rushed the Hawkeyes 337 to 6. Howevery, they put out a good effort in defeating Alabama in the Music City Bowl. Pretty much the same is expected this year for Minnesota. I don’t think they can touch the top 4 teams in the conference in Michigan, Ohio State, Purdue, and Iowa, where Minnesota has to play all 4. For the optimists, at least Minnesota controls their own destiny. I think Minnesota will be a fun team to watch with Laurence Maroney possibly chasing 2,000 yards. It will also be interesting to see how much passing Mason will do with a talented QB and receiving corps.

NORTHWESTERN



Offense
Brett Basanez (#24 QB) is a senior quarterback who is capable of doing some fine things with 3 of his top receivers back. Despite a career full of injuries and inconsistent play, Basanez needs just 529 yards to surpass Zak Kustok as Northwestern’s all time leading passer. He could be magnificent at times, throwing for 513 yards against TCU, but awful at other times, 1 for 15 with 3 INTs against Air Force in 2003. Mark Philmore, Kim Thompson, and Jonathan Fields all return at WR so Basanez will definitely have this group of experienced WRs to throw to. There are also depth at the position with last year’s starter Shaun Herbert and 6th leading receiver Brandon Horn coming off the bench. Brandon Robertson lines up at RB being only a sophomore. He beats out Terrell Jordan and Tyrell Sutton (#24 RB) who will be the main backup. This is a good line returning 2 from a squad that helped to 4.6 ypc and only 12 sacks. Zach Strief is a good talent with a 6-7, 335 pound frame.

Defense
DE Loren Howard (#33 DL) was a tackling machine at the end position but was hurt last year. He had 81 tackles as a true frosh, which is just unheard of for the DL. Barry Cofield also returns, but Luis Castillo (1st round NFL draft pick) is gone. Trevor Schultz and Corey Wootton are the other 2 starters on the DL. Leading tackler Tim McGarigle comes back with his NCAA-leading 151 tackles at MLB. The senior will be joined by experienced LB Nick Roach and Adam Kadela, who was injured for most of last season. The secondary was awful at the beginning of last year, but was able to hold Penn State, Michigan, and Illinois all under 200 yards passing towards the end. It would be a good finish leading into the off season if not for Hawaii, who torched the Wildcats for 405 passing yards. Herschel Henderson and Marquice Cole will be the starting CBs with Jeff Backes suffering shoulder injuries. Reggie McPherson and Frederic Tarver will be the FS and SS respectively.

Prediction
Randy Walker did a great job in 2000 followed by 2 sub-.500 seasons. Northwester is coming off of back-to-back 6-6 seasons which is really better than what it seems. No body would expect the Wildcats to win 6 games last year, but all they did was upset Ohio State and Purdue. They were in 4 overtime games last year, winning 3 of them. I don’t expect people to overlook Northwestern this year, and you can bet Purdue and Ohio State will remember the losses last year when the Wildcats travel to West Lafayette and Columbus.


OHIO STATE



Offense
After Craig Krenzel’s departure, two QBs, Justin Zwick (#7 QB) and Troy Smith (#31 QB), who he battled for the starting job in 2002 were fighting for his job in 2004. It was the classic case of the 6-4-NFL-type-gunslinger (Zwick) vs. the Michael-Vick-slashing-runner (Smith). Zwick won the starting job, but poor play and injuries opened the doors for Smith who did nothing but run and win. Smith was suspended for the bowl game, which forced Zwick to play through pain in order to preserve Todd Boeckman’s redshirt status. I think it will be another two-headed-monster this year with Smith getting most of the playing time; however, the coaching staff will not forget about what Zwick did for them last year and put him in a few key situations. Smith will be suspended for the 1st game of this season, so Zwick will open the season. Much of the ruckus at the RB position over the past 2 years has been the lack of Maurice Clarett. Now that Clarett finally got his wish after being drafted by the Denver Broncos in the 3rd round, we can finally move forward. Despite not having Clarett for 2003 and 2004, there were still a lot of talent for Ohio State at RB in Lydell Ross (#18 RB), Maurice Hall (#8 RB), and Antonio Pittman (#19 RB). Ross had a respectable 826 yards in 2003, but the trio were nevertheless labeled as underachievers after a 2004 season where no one rushed for more than 500 yards. Ross and Hall departed, leaving Pittman to battle redshirt freshman Erik Haw (#18 RB) for the job. Pittman will start the season due to his experience, but I expect Haw to be the starter by the time of the Michigan game. Haw is simply a tremendous blend of size and speed at 6-1, 210 lbs and 4.21 speed. True frosh Maurice Wells (#11 RB) will also be in the mix. The receiver position is very talented in Santonio Holmes, the dependable possession receiver, and Teddy Ginn (#1 DB), the raw, but speedy game-breaker. Holmes made 2nd team all-conference last year despite the QB shuffles. I expect him to improve this year with some QB stability. Ginn started the year as a DB in 2004, but it is undeniable that his shifty speed and vision is much better used on the offensive side of the football. It seems like every time Ginn touches the ball, he’s taking it to the house. This year, you can expect to see a ton of WR screens, reverses, direct snaps to Ginn, flea-flickers, and whatever other ways to get the ball to Ginn, who is also a dangerous punt returner (25.6 ave and 4 TDs). Almost the entire OL returns including team captains C Nick Mangold and RG Rob Sims. The LT needs a replacement, likely So. Steve Rehring, but two blue chippers are breathing down his neck in redshirt freshman Kyle Mitchum (#6 OL) and true frosh Alex Boone (#2 OL). This offense returns 9 starters from 2004, so it will definitely be consistent. Though, I wouldn’t expect them to be putting up 40 points per game, a feat the Buckeyes only accomplished once in the last 2 years (and that’s in 3 OTs).

Defense
Like the Offense, the defense returns 9 starters, as well as their top 11 tacklers from 2004! The star of the defense is senior linebacker AJ Hawk, the captain and leader of this team for the past 2 years. Hawk has been a tackling machine the past 2 seasons with 106 in 2003 and 141 in 2004. He should go down as one of the great Buckeye linebackers along with Chris Spielman, Pepper Johnson, and Andy Katzenmoyer. Bobby Carpenter and Anthony Schlegel are the other 2 linebackers and also are the 2nd and 3rd leading tacklers on the team. Without a question, this trio of linebackers are all tackling machines and the best unit in the country. Other than the three, their backups might be starters at any other college in America. John Kerr is a transfer from Indiana who had 114 tackles as a true frosh! Mike D’Andrea (#1 LB) was a tremendous recruit out of high school, but missed most of last year due to a torn knee. This prototypical linebacker needs a fine senior year to showcase himself to the NFL. Marcus Freeman (#8 LB) has a ton of talent, but unfortunately will have to pay his dues by sitting on the bench as a sophomore. Chad Hoobler (#4 TE) is new to the position in his 2nd year. It will be crucial for the defensive line to keep tackles off of this talented corps of linebackers. With 3 starters returning, they will have no problem doing that. There isn’t a beefy clog on the line (all are less than 300 pounds), but Marcus Green, Quinn Pitcock (#11 DL), and Mike Kudla (#23 LB) will make up for their size with experience. Either Jay Richardson or David Patterson (#11 DL) will fill in the other end position, but regardless of who is starting, there isn’t a lot of pass-rushing ability on this line. Cornerback Ashton Youboty (#30 DB) is back after breaking up 14 passes and picking off 4 others last year. Nate Salley is the senior co-captain on defense and hits hard from the FS position. SS Donte Whitner (#9 DB) was 4th on the team in tackles last year in only 6 starts. The problem will be finding a 2nd CB. Ted Ginn was starting at CB last year, but it is unlikely for him to play both ways. Tyler Everett (#24 DB) will start in this position, but I look for EJ Underwood (#17 DB), Sirjo Welch (#18 DB), and Brandon Underwood (#28 DB) to get playing time as well.

Prediction
Never underestimate a team that returns 18 of 22 starters. Kicker Mike Nugent will be missed sorely and is possibly the biggest loss to this team. Nugent has been to Ohio State what Adam Vinatieri is to the New England Patriots. I predict the Buckeyes to lose at least one game on a missed field goal this season. The non-conference slate is no walk-in-the-park this year. Although all three are home games, Miami (OH), Texas, and San Diego State are all tough opponents. Teams were torching the Buckeye secondary late in the 2004 season. I expect Miami (OH) to exploit that weakness with QB Josh Betts who had 3495 passing yards and 24 TDs last year. The Texas vs. Ohio State game will be the 1st clash of the titans in 2005. It will be interesting to see if Ohio State’s tackling machines on defense can contain the Houdini-esque Vince Young. San Diego State had Michigan upset last year only to miss 2 field goals late in the game and lost by 3. In their Big Ten scheduling, Ohio State misses 2 of the better teams in Purdue and Wisconsin. I think Ohio State is solid on both offense and defense, but lacks the big-play ability on both sides of the ball. The offense is another classic Jim Tressel team; one that does barely enough to win. The defense won’t put too much pressure on the opposing passer, has a questionable secondary, and wasn’t all that impressive against the run (allowing 130 yards per game in 2004) despite having wave after wave of tremendous tacklers. But those aren’t even the biggest questions Ohio State needs to answer in order to win the national title, the biggest question is how are they going to replace kicker Mike Nugent? I don’t think anyone will disagree when I say Nugent is as important as any special teams player are to their team in the last few years. The lack of his presence will be felt this year in close games. No matter what you say, it seems like Jim Tressel always has the ability to win close games. In his 4 years at Ohio State, he is 11-3 in games decided by less than 7 points. I think a large part of that and the national championship has to do with the talent that John Cooper recruited. We’ll see how he does with his players in this, his 5th, season.

PENN STATE



Offense
Zach Mills is gone at QB, leaving Michael Robinson as the most experienced QB and Anthony Morelli (#6 QB) the arm of the future. Robinson has great speed and a strong arm, but put up horrible numbers at QB. He also played receiver where he led the team in reception yards. I think WR is the most suitable position for Robinson while Morelli starts at QB; however, Robinson beat out Morelli for the starting job out of the spring. Tony Hunt led the team with 777 rushing yards last year when Austin Scott and Rodney Kinlaw were unable to perform due to various reasons including injuries and missing team meetings. Both Scott and Kinlaw are back this year to push Hunt for playing time. This unit should be solid. Hunt led the team in receptions, which goes to say how ineffective the receiving corps was last year. If Robinson moves to WR, this would be a very good group with Mark Rubin returning for his sophomore season and blue chip athlete Derrick Williams (#1 DB) likely to start as a true frosh. Williams has been compared to Ted Ginn with his 4.24 speed. The offensive line is composed of 5 returning starters who were all very highly touted recruits out of high school in C Ez Smith (#13 OL), RG Tyler Reed (#10 OL), LG Charles Rush (#4 OL), RT John Wilson (#28 OL), and LT Levi Brown (#47 DL). They will definitely improve upon the 3.9 ypc with 3 capable RBs returning this year.

Defense
The defensive line was pretty good against the run last year, yielding only 3.2 ypc, but only recorded 19 sacks all year. The line returns all 4 starters for the 2nd straight year and should once again be dominant in run defense, but ends Tamba Hali (#13 DL) and Matthew Rice (#34 DL) need to put more pressure on opposing QBs. This is yet another great Big Ten linebacking corps with starters Paul Posluszny (#32 LB), Dan Connor (#3 LB), and Tim Shaw, with reserves JR Zwierzynski (#16 RB), Tyrell Sales (#17 OL), Dontey Brown (#21 LB), and true frosh Jerome Hayes (#18 LB). Posluszny led the team in tackles including 12 tackles for loss in a breakout year in 2004. Dan Connor lived up to his hype, recording 85 tackles in only 4 starts. Despite injuries, Shaw had 50 tackles in limited playing time. The secondary gave up only 162 passing yards a game and had an amazing 5-16 TD-INT ratio, despite the front 7 only getting 19 sacks. 3 starters return plus Chris Harrell, who had 49 tackles in 2003, returns after missing all of last year. Alan Zemaitis brings his 4.3 speed back for his senior season as the top CB. His counterpart will be Anwar Phillips who had 10 passes broken up and 4 INTs last year as most teams picked on him rather than Zemaitis. Both are all-conference caliber athletes. Blue chipper Justin King (#4 DB) is a true frosh who might play CB or WR. Calvin Lowry (#28 DB) started all the games at SS last year and will complement Harrell at the FS spot. If this defense can put some pressure on the QB with around 30 sacks, it could be as much of a shut-down defense as there is in college football.

Prediction
It seems like yesterday that Penn State was going undefeated with Ki-Jana Carter and Kerry Collins, when the Nittany Lions whipped my Tennessee Volunteers in the Fiesta Bowl in the early 90s. Now it seems like they went from powerhouse to door mat in just a flash of the eye going 7-16 in the last 2 seasons. Could this be the year that Joe Pa brings Penn State back to glory? With a defense like this, anything is possible, just ask the 2002 Ohio State Buckeyes. The Lions play an easy schedule to open the season, facing South Florida, Cincy, and Central Michigan at home before opening Big Ten play. The back-to-back-to-back games against Minnesota, Ohio State, and Michigan will be huge. I think if Penn State can 2 of those games, their season would be considered a success. I even think they are capable of winning 9 games if, and only if Michael Robinson is moved to WR while Anthony Morelli starts at QB. I expect Penn State to be in every game for at least 3 quarters due to their defense.

PURDUE



Offense
Despite the departure of NFL draft pick QB Kyle Orton, this will be another offensively explosive Purdue team. Brandon Kirsch (#27 QB) is an experienced quarterback who didn’t just play mop-up minutes in the past. In 94 attempts, Kirsch managed to complete 61.7% of his passes for 711 yards, 7 TDs, and only 3 INTs. Backing him up will be Curtis Painter (#29 QB), a redshirt freshman who Joe Tiller is very high on. The strength of the offense will once again be the receivers. Taylor Stubblefield and John Standeford are gone, but returning starters Kyle Ingraham and Dorien Bryant (#11 WR) are more than capable themselves. Ingraham is a 6-9 giant who had 7 touchdowns last year. Bryant is a perfect complement to Ingraham being 5-10, 175 with 4.4 speed. Other contributors at WR include JC transfer Brian Hare, a dangerous deep threat (26.0 yards per catch in 2004), Ray Williams, and Kevin Noel (#25 WR). True frosh Selwyn Lymon (#11 WR) is the star of the future who has speed and size. With all this talent at WR, the leading receiver for 2005 might be TE Charles Davis (#22 TE) who is a sure-handed receiver and also a good 6-6 260 pound blocker. Jerod Void will spearhead the running game, but do expect him to split time with Brandon Jones. Void was solid last year, but only averaged 3.9 yards per carry. Redshirt freshman Kory Sheets has the homerun speed as the 3rd string back. The offensive line was good but not great last year; however, considering their youth, it was a pretty good season. Sophomore Jordan Grimes played as a true freshman, the first one to do so for Joe Tiller. Sean Sester is a redshirt freshman who might also play a lot of minutes, so expect some inconsistencies this year.

Defense
The Boilermakers are picked as the dark horse national title contenders by many due to their 11 returning starters on defense. The D-line was very young last year, but only gave up 3.1 rushing yards per carry, which is extremely up to satisfaction. DE Ray Edwards (#19 LB) led the team with 8 sacks last year while Anthony Spencer had 7.5 on the other side. The presence of these two talented ends means Rob Ninkovich, who had 4 sacks in one game last year, can only come off the bench. Brandon Villarreal and Brent Grover (#10 LB) are both excellent clogs against the run despite their less-than-prototypical size. This year’s class includes JB Paxson (#10 DL) and Jared Zwilling (#40 DL). Purdue did a good job replacing all 3 linebackers. George Hall stepped in at MLB and had 92 tackles. Stanford Keglar was excellent as a redshirt freshman starting all 12 games and had 61 tackles. Bobby Iwuchukwu and Cliff Avril were also contributors. This year’s group should be better with the returning experience and also added a super talent in Kyle Williams (#5 LB) who didn’t qualify at Iowa last year and ended up at Purdue. Brian Hickman and Paul Long are the starting CBs, but neither are very good, resulting in the Boilermakers giving up 240 passing yards a game last year. Long is only a sophomore so there is still room to grow. Fabian Martin might be counted on at corner. Bernard Pollard at SS led the team in tackles last year and has tons of experience starting since he was a true frosh.

Prediction
This is the dark horse for the Rose Bowl for several reasons. First, all the starters on defense return and 7 more return on offense. Second, the schedule looks very favorable, missing both Michigan and Ohio State for their conference games. Third, Purdue has the magical 7-5 record from last year. The 1997 Arizona Wildcats were 7-5 before going 12-1 in 1998; 2000 national champion Oklahoma Sooners were 7-5 in 1999; the 1999 Washington Huskies went 7-5 in 1999 only to turn in a 11-1 2000 campaign capped off with a Rose Bowl win; the 2002 national champion Ohio State Buckeyes were 7-5 in 2001; the Iowa Hawkeyes were 7-5 in 2001 before the stunning 11-1 regular season turnaround in 2002; the USC Trojans were 6-5 in the 2001 regular season before going 36-3 in the next 2 years including 2 national titles; the LSU Tigers were 8-5 in 2002 before winning a share of the title in 2003; the Auburn Tigers were 8-5 in 2003 before going 13-0 in 2004; the Virginia Tech Hokies were 8-5 in 2003 before winning the ACC title in their first year in the conference in 2004. Getting my drift? Better watch out for 5-loss teams based on these records. Purdue needs to concentrate on improving their pass defense which gave up way too many big plays in 2004. Pressure on the quarterback this year will improve which will directly affect the secondary performance. They won’t face any gunslinger quarterbacks other than Iowa’s Drew Tate and Notre Dame’s Brady Quinn, another reason why the passing defense should improve. The key games are road games at Minnesota and Wisconsin and the home game against Iowa; however, look out for the trip into the desert against Arizona. As you know, I think this is the Wildcats’ breakout year and could do so at Purdue’s expense. Another key issue is winning close games. Last year, Purdue got off to a 5-0 start before losing the next 4 games by 3, 2, 3, and 2 points. They have a great kicker in Ben Jones, who should help lift them in close games this year.

WISCONSIN



Offense
John Stocco had a steady but unimpressive 1st season as the starting QB. His inconsistency at the end of last year opened up the QB competition this year with sophomore Tyler Donovan and redshirt freshman Bryan Savage both in the mix. Anthony Davis had a ton of talent but was hurt most of the time in the last 2 seasons. He is gone this year and leaves the job for Brian Calhoun (#20 RB), who you might remember as part of the talented Colorado Buffaloes backfield in 2003. The sprinter has excellent speed either on a handoff or on a reception. Booker Stanley is the returning leading rusher on the team with 350 yards last year, but will mainly be used as a backup this year. Brandon Williams is the go-to receiver after hauling in at least 40 passes in all 3 years he’s been here. Owen Daniels is the next best receiver being the senior tight end who was converted from a QB. Jonathan Orr is another dependable WR who had a fabulous 2003 season with 842 receiving yards. The line was fairly impressive last year giving up only 22 sacks; however, 16 of the 22 came in the last 4 games including a season high of 7 in the bowl game against Georgia. The losses are heavy on the OL this year, but returns team leader C Donovan Raiola and NFL prospect Joe Thomas (#12 OL). There are potentially 2 freshmen who might get significant playing time in redshirt freshman Kraig Urbik and true frosh Andy Kemp (#13 OL).

Defense
How do you replace 4 NFL draft picks on the D-line alone? You don’t. Erasmus James was probably the most dominant defensive end in college football last year when he was healthy who is playing in the NFL now. There are some green talents on the line this year, most notably sophomores Nick Hayden (#14 DL) and Justin Ostrowski (#5 DL). Dontez Sanders leads a good linebacking unit which also includes Andy Crooks and Mark Zalewski. Sanders and Zalewski started every game last year. Crooks was a true frosh who started 5 games and should improve this year. High school phenom Travis Beckum (#4 LB) might play this year despite the talent and depth of the position. The secondary only returns 1 starter in Brett Bell (#10 DB) who plays cornerback. There aren’t much to be said about this defensive unit since they lost so much during the off season. I’m pretty sure someone will step up by the end of the season, but it is hard to say who right now.

Prediction
2004 ended in a sour note with a 3 game losing streak after beginning the season 9-0; however, it was still a nice turnaround from the 19-18 records over the previous 3 years. 2005 will be head coach Barry Alvarez’s last season as head coach who will remain the athletic director at Wisconsin. Bret Bielema is being tagged as the replacement who is the current defensive coordinator. He is familiar with the Big Ten after 9 seasons as an assistant at Iowa before going to Kansas State where he was the DC before coming to Wisconsin. This might be a down year for the badgers and it might take a few years for the program to bounce back due to coaching changes. I don’t expect Bielema to pull a Pete Carroll or Larry Coker or Jim Tressel since Wisconsin isn’t quite the recruiting hotbed as USC, Miami, and Ohio State are. Anyways, back to this year, a tough schedule from day one when Bowling Green’s high-octane offense comes to town. BG quarterback Omar Jacobs is on many people’s Heisman Trophy watch list. The Big Ten schedule doesn’t bet any easier, starting with Michigan and ending with Iowa, albeit both are at home. I don’t expect Wisconsin to challenge for the Big Ten title this year, but they will definitely upset one of the teams going for that honor in Michigan, Purdue, and Iowa.

August 22, 2005

College Football Preview – Part 3/7, PAC 10



PAC 10


At first glance, the Pac 10 looks like a 2-team race with a bunch of mid-major level teams fighting for 3-10. However, upon closer examination, there could be 6 bowl-eligible teams as well as some teams capable of making dramatic turn-arounds. Without a doubt, USC is the Goliath in this conference, having the edge in every unit from head coaches to special teams. Many predicts Cal to have a rebuilding year, but I believe they won't miss a beat on offense despite losing their big 3, but the defense is definitely vulnerable. Arizona State, Oregon, Oregon State, and UCLA makes up the 2nd tier. Each of those teams are 1 upset away from challenging USC and Cal. Arizona is a potential surprise team entering Mike Stoops' 2nd year. I think they could make it to a bowl game this year. Stanford, Washington, and Washington State wraps up the bottom. All 3 teams return many starters, so they are all capable of making some noise this year. Stanford and Washington have 1st year coaches in Walt Harris and Ty Willingham, 2 proven winners in the past. In this day and age, it seems like head coaches achieve great things in the 1st 3 years with a program (see Bob Stoops, Larry Coker, Urban Meyer, and Pete Carroll).

ARIZONA



Offense
The offense will be headlined by senior running back Mike Bell (#9 RB). Bell is a proven runner with 2 decent seasons for the Wildcats. Terry Longbons (#16 RB) is a good recruit who might see some action in his freshman year. Richard Kovalcheck will return as the lone starting quarterback as Kris Heavner leaves. Kovalcheck is only a sophomore and could develop into a good quarterback this season; however, back problems have kept him out of the spring, but I expect him to be ready for the season opener. The WR group was dropping balls left and right last year. Although 3 of the top 5 receivers left, BJ Vickers, a JC transfer, showed flashes of brilliance in the spring. Mike Jefferson and Syndric Steptoe also return with experience as starters. The offensive line won’t be spectacular with only 1 player starting all the games in redshirt freshman Peter Graniello. New comer Adam Hawes, a JUCO transfer, is a good talent who can be impressive as the blindside tackle. Like any coach looking to turn around a program, Mike Stoops brings in several JUCO players who can make an immediate impact, a method he learned from brother Bob Stoops.

Defense
This is the side of the ball that I expect to see the most improvement given that Mike Stoops was Oklahoma’s defensive coordinator before last year. His DC will be brother Mark Stoops. It seems like coordinating defense runs in the blood (Bob was DC for Florida and KState before headcoaching Oklahoma). Let us start with the defensive backs since Mark specializes in DBs plus the fact that all 4 starters return with another talent to back them up in JC transfer Michael Johnson (#4JC DB). CB Antoine Cason is only a sophomore but started all 11 games as a true frosh recording an impressive 70 tackles and 4 INTs. Cason is a potential all-conference player who has the size and speed for the NFL. His counterpart CB Wilrey Fontenot was also a freshman starter from last year looking to build on a solid rookie campaign. The 2 safeties are both seniors in Lamon Means and Darrell Brooks. Johnson might see some time at the strong safety position and might even challenge Means for some starts. On the D-line, 2 starters return in Marcus Smith and Paul Philipp. The two combined for 23 starts last year and will be aided by JC transfer nose tackle Byron Smith and end Copeland Bryan who started 10 games in 2003. The linebackers are very young having the only returning starter be a sophomore in Dane Krogstad. Patrick Howard leaves the MLB position for Ronnie Palmer, a redshirt freshman; however, Spencer Larsen or true frosh Adrian McCovey (#37 LB) might challenge Palmer for the position.

Prediction
I like Arizona’s chance for a turnaround season in 2005. The defense is definitely in the upper half of the Pac10 and will keep the Cats in a lot of their games. The schedule is brutal for the first 5 games (at Utah, Cal, and USC and vs Purdue at home), but if they can muster 2 wins out of the 5, they will have a much easier schedule in October and November.

ARIZONA STATE



Offense
The ASU offense will need sometime to gel, provided senior quarterback Andrew Walter graduated in the offseason. Sam Keller, who had decent numbers in limited action last year, will become the starter. He will have one of the best targets in the country to throw to in senior WR Derek Hagan. Coming off of a season where he had 83 receptions, 1248 yards, and 10 TDs, Hagan is surely an All-American prospect. Other than Hagan, the top 6 in receiving yards return from last year, one of them being star TE Zach Miller (#1 TE) who is only a sophomore. Hakim Hill and Loren Wade will need to be replaced as the RBs, both of whom were injured during parts of 2004. Wade put the ASU program in a cloud of dust when he was charged of murder. He has since been kicked off of the team. The early favorite for the position is Randy Hill, followed by Rudy Burgess, who had 404 yards last year. Burgess became the starter late last year and put up big numbers as a runner and as a pass catcher out of the backfield, but is likely to return to the WR position this year, although using him in a Reggie Bush-type way isn’t out of the question. Regardless of who becomes the starter, the running game won’t likely be much of a factor this year. The offensive line has been young and hurt the last few years. This year, the line returns 3 starters and despite losing C Drew Hodgdon (5th round pick HOU), this unit is the best in 3 years. I don’t expect them to pave the way for more than 4.0 ypc in the running game due to the lack of a RB, but I do expect them to proteck Keller in 2005.

Defense
On the defensive line, Kyle Caldwell (#15 DL) looks to build upon a 7-sack season in 2004. The Sun Devils lost 2 starters and several backups on the DL, but Will Kofe and Shannon Jones comes in as JC transfers and should provide immediate help along with seniors Mike Talbot and DeWayne Hollyfield. DT Jordan Hill also had 7 sacks last year and should improve exponentially provided he is fairly new to the position (recruited as a LB out of high school). The linebacking unit is well off with senior starters Jamar Williams and Dale Robinson. Both Williams and Robinson had over 80 tackles last season. Backing them up is a talented youngster Mark Washington (#31 LB) who could see playing time beside Williams and Robinson if Lamar Baker fails to deliver as an undersized 3rd linebacker. The secondary will miss 1st team Pac10 SS Riccardo Stewart. His shoes will be filled by sophomore Josh Barrett who started in place of Stewart in the four games he missed. However, Barrett will be challenged for playing time by first year JC transfer Zach Catanese and Maurice London (#19JC DB). FS Emmanuel Franklin has good speed and can provide deep coverage. If RJ Oliver can return from injury, he would be the #1 coverage corner for the Sun Devils. Josh Golden is a returning starter who should be solid as the other CB. A new defensive coordinator takes over this year in Bill Miller, who has 27 years of coaching experience including stops at top programs Oklahoma State, Michigan State, Miami (FL), and Florida. His presence will definitely help improve the defense, but another aspect is how quickly will they adapt to his schemes.

Prediction
Last season’s 8-3 was very impressive considering the Sun Devils blew out two non-conference bowl teams early in the season (UTEP and Iowa). However, ASU were blown out twice themselves against Pac10’s top two teams (USC and Cal). This season’s schedule includes LSU, a national title contender, in the second game. As if beating LSU isn’t hard enough, they’ll have to travel to Baton Rouge to do so. Arizona State will miss Cal this year, but will have to play USC and Oregon on back-to-back weekends. If it is any consolation, those games are both at home, where the Sun Devils are undefeated in their last 7 games dating back to the last game of 2003. The season will be a success if the Sun Devils can finish 2nd in the Pac10 and make it to the Holiday Bowl, however, they won’t settle for anything less than 3rd.

CALIFORNIA



Offense
The Golden Bears lose all three of their big weapons on offense in QB Aaron Rodgers, RB JJ Arrington, and WR Geoff McArthur. Many people will consider this a rebuilding season on that reason alone, but don’t be fooled, I think this year’s team might even be better offensively! In 2003, Aaron Rodgers stepped in as the starting quarterback coming from the JUCO ranks. A similar situation is in store for 2005 as highly touted JC QB Joseph Ayoob (#6JC QB) takes over for Rodgers, who was drafted in the 1st round of the NFL draft. Provided with head coach Jeff Tedford’s track record, which he proved that he can turn anyone from JC transfers (Aaron Rodgers) to high school phenoms (Kyle Boller) into productive college QBs, Ayoob should be in good hands. Nathan Longshore (#18 QB) and Kyle Reed (#18 QB) are a pair of good talents out of high school who could be Cal’s future QB. Last year, Arrington rushed for an amazing 2018 yards with a 7.0 average, but what few people realize is that his true frosh backup, Marshawn Lynch (#23 RB), averaged an amazing 8.8 ypc on 71 carries, yielding 645 yards. Part of that can be attributed to the offensive line, but for any freshman to do what Lynch did is just impressive. Backing up Lynch are Jr. Marcus O’Keith (#26 RB) and Sr. Terrell Williams, who averaged 5.3 and 8.4 ypc last year respectively. The receiving corps was hit hard last season by injuries, but still helped Cal to a successful season. There are a lot of new faces this year at WR, but all bring a ton of talent to the table. DeSean Jackson is this year’s #1 receiving recruit who could win a starting job. Lavelle Hawkins (#5 WR) is a heralded LSU transfer who is only a sophomore. Also in the mix are a trio of young speedsters in So. Sam DeSa (4.45 speed), So. Noah Smith (4.29 speed), and rFr. Robert Jordan (4.45 speed). Another sophomore will start at TE in Craig Stevens who is a good blocker. Despite the youth of the receiving corps, they should put up better numbers than the injury-plagued group from last year. Despite all the weapons on offense, the most important and underrated part to both last year’s and this year’s team is the offensive line. The OL only loses 1 starter as the other 4 combined for 48 starts last year! That converted to an amazing 6.1 ypc for the offense and only allowed 25 sacks all year. The scary part is that this line returns practically in tact and might be the best offensive line in the country. They might not have the star power of the USC or Texas lines, but this group can put up numbers with the best in the country. With all that talk, I forgot to introduce the line which is made up of C Marvin Philips (1st team Pac10), RG Aaron Merz, LG Erik Robertson (only non-returning starter), LT Andrew Cameron, and the star of them all RT Ryan O’Callaghan. This line is what allowed Aaron Rodgers to complete 23 consecutive passes against USC and JJ Arrington to rush for over 2000 yards, and they are going to make Joseph Ayoob and Marshawn Lynch look like gold this year.

Defense
The defense suffers even heavier losses than the offense this year, returning only 3 starters from a year ago; however, they won’t have the same caliber of replacements that the offense enjoys. The DL returns only one starter in Brandon Mebane and will have to replace their sack leader Ryan Riddle (14.5 sacks). The replacements consist of talented Matthew Malele (#14 DL), Phillip Mbakogu (#11 DL), and Nu’u Tafisi (#21JC DL), so the question should be when they will mature, not if they will mature. All 3 starting linebackers are gone from 2004. They will be replaced by talented JC linebackers Desmond Bishop (#3JC LB) and Mickey Pimentel (#24JC LB). Bishop moves extremely well from sideline-to-sideline while Pimentel is a good pass rusher on the weak side. The third linebacker is senior Ryan Foltz who is a converted safety. The secondary could be very vulnerable at times last year as seen in the game against Texas Tech. On the year, Cal gave up a whopping 238 passing yards per game. That should improve with both starting corners return this year in Daymeion Hughes and Harrison Smith. Both guys are huge (6-2) for cornerback standards. Donnie McCleskey returns after an injury-plagued season and looks to return to the 102-tackle season he had in 2003. The defense lost a lot, but considering most replacements are talented JUCO players, they bring a certain level of experience and should be a solid group considering there are more overall talent and depth compared to last year.

Prediction
Under Jeff Tedford, California is steadily turning into a powerhouse on the college football scene. Despite garnering attention as a mentor for successful quarterbacks (Joey Harrington, David Carr, Kyle Boller, and Aaron Rodgers), Tedford is also churning out productive running backs in Adimchinobe Echemandu, JJ Arrington, and now Marshawn Lynch. Based on this year’s recruits, it seems like the Cal program is here to stay. For the 2005 season, anything less than 10 wins will be considered a disappointment. The Pac10 will once again be a two-horse race between USC and Cal with the winner of their November 12 game the likely conference champions. One potential upset for Cal will be the road game at Oregon the week before facing USC. As we all know, Oregon’s Autzen Stadium is a hostile place for any visiting team.

OREGON



Offense
The QB shuffle finally ended last year when Jason Fife graduated, giving Kellen Clemens (#7 QB) the starting job all to himself. He struggled at times, but completed 60% of his passes with a 22-10 TD-INT ratio which isn’t bad at all. This year will be Clemen’s last year, and I expect him to live up to the expectations from the day he stepped on campus. Another highly touted prospect, Dennis Dixon (#10 QB) will back him up. Even with the impressive 1164 yard season averaging 5.7 ypc in 2004, senior incumbent Terrence Whitehead might not have the starting RB job at the beginning of the season. He is being pushed by blue chipper true frosh Jonathan Stewart (#1 RB), who chose Oregon over other national powerhouses such as USC, Cal, Tennessee, Ohio State, Nebraska, and Notre Dame. With the success of true frosh Adrian Peterson last season, Oregon won’t hesitate to have Stewart carry the load early on. Head coach Mike Bellotti will be extremely pleased that he will have the 5-10 220-pounder with 4.5 speed for at least 3 seasons. While all the talk is about Stewart, don’t forget about Terrell Jackson (#17 RB) who redshirted last year. A very solid receiving corps returns to Eugene. Led by Demetrius Williams, the WRs return practically everyone including TE Tim Day, who is a tremendous pass catcher and NFL prospect. Day had 8 TD catches last season and averaged 13.1 yards per catch. James Finley (#1JC WR) and Cameron Colvin (#6 WR) will provide size and speed respectively as wide receivers. The offensive line might be the weakest link on the Oregon offense. Not only did the line give up 41 sacks last year, they also lose 3 starters from last year. The replacements will be talented but inexperienced Aaron Klovas (#7 OL) at LT, sophomore Geoff Schwartz at RT, and JC transfer Palauni Ma Sun (#26JC OL) at LG. The three are very inexperienced, but are all big men, averaging 6-6, 340lb per body. If Klovas or Schwartz struggle, another youngster Jacob Hucko (#30 OL), who is a redshirt freshman, will see some action.

Defense
The Oregon defense has an excellent defensive line led by blue-chipper Jr. DT Haloti Ngata (#1 DL) and Devan Long. Ngata is the type of big and strong interior lineman that NFL teams love for stopping the run. Long combined for 18 sacks the previous two years at the end position. Sophomore David Faaeteete (#33 DL) played as a true frosh and will start at DT beside Ngata. And it seems like DT Matt Toeaina will move over to the end position and become a starter. It won’t be Oregon football unless at least 2 of the starting linebackers need to be replaced from the previous year. Top tacklers Jerry Matson and Ramone Reed depart as 2 of the team’s top 3 tacklers from 2004. Since Oregon plays a 4-2-5, that means there is almost no experience at the linebacker position considering the replacements, AJ Tuitele and Brent Haberly, have 2 starts between them. Chris Vincent, the RB transfer from LSU, and Justin Andrews will also see time at LB. Every starter from the secondary returns this year. Aaron Gipson and Jackie Bates are a pair of fine cornerbacks who are as good as any duo in the conference. Bates is only a sophomore who started 6 games as a true frosh. Willie Glasper (#7 DB) was a highly recruited prospect last season and could form a formidable pair at CB with Bates for years to come. Anthony Truck is more of a “tweener”, playing both linebacker and strong safety last year. Justin Phinisee is a good corner as well as a solid safety. Being a 4-2-5 system, there are plenty of chances for Phinisee to get on the field.

Prediction
This team is much better than the 5-7 team from 2004. Other than the OL and LB positions, this is a very good team who will be looking to getting back to the form of the 2001 Ducks when they were 11-1. Although they are not on the same talent level as USC, Oregon will definitely battle for 2nd place in the Pac10 with Cal and ASU. The schedule opens with fairly easy opponents and should lead to a 2-0 start. Many experts pick Oregon to upset USC and their 20+ game winning streak when the Trojans visit Eugene. Cal also visits Autzen Stadium this year, so Oregon has the chance, although slim, to tear down the goal post twice this year. 3 of the 4 conference road teams are against the bottom teams in the conference; therefore, there is no question that scheduling is on the Ducks side. I wouldn’t be surprised if Oregon goes undefeated on the road, yet be only 3-3 at home.

OREGON STATE



Offense
The Beavers lose their all-time leading passer Derek Anderson. The former UCLA Bruin Matt Moore (#19 QB) will get the first shot at QB followed by Ryan Gunderson. While Gunderson served as Anderson’s backup last year, Moore came in from the JC ranks and was impressive during the spring. The leading returning rusher, Yvenson Bernard only had 20 yards on 6 carries last year. Scout team MVP Jimtavis Walker and Bernard are both back and should improve upon last year. After all, you can’t do any worse than 2004 when they finished last in the country in rushing! The receiving corps is the strength of the offense and should help out either Moore or Gunderson dramatically. All three starters return including Mike Hass, the senior leader of the team. Hass, the former walk-on, is a deep threat (23.0 ypc in 2003 and 16.0 ypc in 2004) despite having average speed and also has sound techniques in route-running and pass-catching (44 catches in 2003 and 86 catches in 2004). He will be flanked by returning starters Anthony Wheat-Brown at flanker and Marcel Love in the slot. Overall, the top 4 pass catchers from 2004 returns. Joe Newton (#12 TE) caught 56 passes at the TE position last year and is one of the many talented Pac10 TEs (Dominique Byrd – USC, Marcedes Lewis – UCLA, Tim Day – Oregon, Zach Miller – ASU, and Troy Bienemann – WSU). The offensive line was, without a question, a horrible squad, giving up 37 sacks and only yielding 2.2 ypc on the ground. This year, 3 starters return for a combined 36 starts last year and should improve dramatically.

Defense
The defensive front 7 looks very good while the secondary needs someone to step up. Bill Swancutt had 11.5 sacks last season and will leave large shoes to fill as he was drafted in the 6th round by the Lions. Three returning starters in Joe Lemma, Ben Siegert, and Sir Henry Anderson return. Jeff Van Orsow, Derek Hall, and Anderson will battle for the end position while Alvin Smith looked impressive enough during the spring to lock up the DT position beside Siegert. A solid Beaver linebacking group revolves around MLB Trent Bray, who had 122 tackles last year, and Keith Ellison (#15JC LB). Chaz Scott is the other starter with some starting experience last year filling in for the injured Jonathan Pollard. The secondary only returns one starter, albeit a good one in SS Sabby Piscitelli. Brandon Browner and Aric Williams left as the starting cornerbacks from 2004. It will be hard to replace two all-conference players at such a crucial position, but Oregon State has talent ready to step in with JC transfers Aaron Miller (#8 DB), who signed with Oklahoma out of high school, and Edorian McCullough (#10 DB), who signed with Texas out of high school. Keenan Lewis and Gerard Lawson will be keeping the positions warm while Miller and McCullough get ready.

Prediction
Despite the gut-wrenching OT loss to LSU in the season opener and the sluggish 1-4 start last year, Mike Riley rallied the troops for a 5-1 record in the last 6 games. The Beavers will need the Portland State game to break in their new quarterback, it being Matt Moore or Ryan Gunderson, because the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th games will be a tough stretch against Boise State, Louisville, and Arizona State. Although Oregon State doesn’t have to face USC, their last 6 games include 4 on the road which is tough for anybody not to mention 2 of those road games are against Cal and Oregon. This season will be a success if the Beavers can win 7 games, and for that to happen, the quarterback and cornerback situations need to be solidified early in the season.

STANFORD



Offense
This is an offense as impotent as any in the last few weeks of the season. For the last 5 games, the Cardinal had -8, 83, 37, 1, and 24 yards rushing for the entire team! The passing game also failed to complete 50% of their passes in the last 3 games, combining to go 42 for 108 (38.9%). The offensive line allowed 41 sacks including 10 by Oregon alone and only 2.5 yards per carry. The only bright spot for this year’s offense is that there are 10 returning starters. QB Trent Edwards (#5 QB) was a heralded recruit by former head coach Buddy Teevens. He hasn’t lived up to the high expectations, but new head coach Walt Harris has a proven record in producing quality passing games at Pittsburgh. Much like Edwards, JR Lemon (#20 RB) was also a high recruit who has failed to produce at the college level. He has the rare combination of size (6-1, 225) and speed and showed what he can do when he ran for 96 yards and a TD on only 10 carries in the close game against USC. All the WRs return except for Greg Camarillo. Evan Moore is a 6-7 leaper and former Cardinal basketball player who quit basketball to further concentrate on football. Mark Bradford (#13 WR) was the 1st Cardinal to lead the team in receiving as a true frosh in 2003. Gone is TE Alex Smith, a 3rd round NFL draft pick, but Walt Harris signs prospect Jim Dray (#10 TE) this year. While Dray develops, Matt Traverso (#25 TE), Patrick Danahy, and Michael Horgan could all see playing time. The entire OL returns and combined for 52 starts last year. Although there aren’t any big names there, experience and familiarity with each other speaks volumes when it comes to OL play.

Defense
This defensive line is due to bust out for a big season. Julian Jenkins (#7 DL) leads the unit as a senior while getting plenty of help from Babatude Oshinowo. There are also a trio of prep superstars who comes to Palo Alto in Ekom Udofia (#3 DL), James McGillicuddy (#24 DL), and Matt Kopa (#33 DL). Being a 3-4 defense, the Cardinal LB unit will be crucial this year led by Jon Alston. Kevin Schimmelmann returns from an injury and will rack up plenty tackles for his senior season. Michael Craven (#1 LB), a blue chipper prospect missed most of last year due to injuries. If he can make a comeback, that will give Stanford 3 potential all-conference players at the LB position. After giving up 249 passing yards per game in 2004, the secondary is further diminished with only 1 starter returning. I don’t expect this unit to improve having to play trigger-happy offenses like USC, Cal, Oregon, and Washington State.

Prediction
Tyrone Willingham might be the most famous 1st year Pac10 coach with a chip on his shoulder, but we have another one on hand in Walt Harris. After re-establishing a Pittsburgh program, Harris was all but booted out the door following their BCS bowl appearance last year. It will be tough to recruit and win at Stanford, but it seems like he has already mastered the 1st part of that with a decent 2005 class. Stanford will have plenty of time to tinker with their team having only 2 games in September against weak opponents in Navy and UC Davis. However, Stanford won’t enjoy another bye week for the rest of the year. A 5-0 start isn’t out of the question, but it will be hard to finish the season strong with games at USC, at Oregon State, against Cal, and Notre Dame in November. Provided that There aren’t too much expectation to win right away, I believe Harris has some good pieces to build upon for the future.

UCLA



Offense
UCLA is the prototypical Pac10 team in many people’s minds, which is all offense and no defense. The Bruins had one of the most prolific running machines averaging 185 yards per game on the ground headed by Maurice Drew. In only 8 starts, Drew had over 1000 yards including school record 322 yards against Washington. Manuel White had 764 yards behind Drew. Despite these numbers, UCLA was only able to squeeze out 79 and 17 rushing yards against Pac10’s elite teams Cal and USC respectively. This year, Drew will return, and provided he is healthy the entire season, should be one of the nation’s best backs. Quarterback Drew Olsen returns for his senior year and will be challenged by incoming redshirt freshman Ben Olsen (#1 QB). Ben formerly committed to BYU, but chose UCLA after coming back from a 2-year mission. Drew and Ben are not related. Junior Taylor (#11 WR) returns as the go-to wide receiver. He will be joined by Joe Cowan, Marcus Everett who played last year as a true frosh, Alex Ghebreselassie, and Ryan Graves. However, their most dangerous receiving weapon is TE Marcedes Lewis who turned down the NFL for his senior season. Lewis led the team with 7 touchdown receptions last year and is expected to be decorated by multiple awards at season’s end. The offensive line returns 3 starters including Shannon Tevaga at guard, who started the last 6 games last year as a true frosh. There is a lot of talent on the offense. I look for the passing game to develop more this year, Karl Dorrell’s 3rd season at the helm.

Defense
Now let’s talk about the ugly side, the defense. Last year’s squad gave up 210 rushing yards and 223 passing yards per game. This year, 8 starters return and should improve on those numbers. The defensive line lacks a pass rusher, generating only 20 sacks for the entire year. The fact that all 4 starters departed from the 2003 season contributed to the poor performance. With last year’s experience, I expect ends Brigham Harwell and Kyle Morgan and tackles Kevin Brown and Kenneth Lombard to be more assertive this year. The linebackers are extremely talented and experienced. Wesley Walker, Spencer Havner (#39 LB), and Justin London (#16 LB) are all senior returning starters. Havner is the gem of the group after recording 125 tackles and 2 INTs in 2004. Other than the trio, their backups are composed of sophomores with little experience. The secondary is weak at both cornerback positions, Marcus Cassel will start on one side while Rodney Van and Trey Brown battle for the other position. Regardless of who starts, this will be a weak unit, especially when the line has trouble getting to the quarterback. The only person saving this unit is Sr. SS Jarrad Page (#19 DB) with 79 tackles last year. Chris Horton is at FS with highly touted Dennis Keyes (#17 DB) backing him up. This year’s Bruin defense has a good chance of improving provided the tremendous linebackers they have, but the key to improvement is the D-line. It will be up to them to provide QB pressure to support the passing D and prevent opposing offensive linemen from latch onto the linebackers for the rushing D.

Prediction
UCLA needs improvement on defense, while maintaining the fire power on offense. The schedule will be difficult with non-conference opponent Oklahoma and 3 of the last 4 games on the road. Finishing the season on a good note has been a tough task for Dorrell’s Bruins after going 0-4 and 2-4 to finish the 2003 and 2004 regular seasons respectively. This year could be no different and might end up costing Dorrell’s job.

USC



Offense
Wow, where do we begin? Should we start with the absurd amount of talent on the team or should we focus on how the Trojans are going to replace a few of their coaches? Let’s begin with one of the most shocking decisions in college football last year when Heisman Trophy winner Matt Leinart decided to return for his senior season. Leinart, unlike Jason White, was considered to be the #1 pick in the NFL draft if he leaves school, but returned for one last year. I was definitely shocked as a Trojan alumnus and fan. Leinart comes back with nothing more to prove on the gridiron. Despite stronger support from the rest of the offense, offensive coordinator and close mentor Norm Chow is gone. I expect Leinart to have a drop-off in productions due to those reasons. In fact, I wanted Leinart to leave so he can capitalize on his Orange Bowl performance and be making Alex Smith-type money in the NFL. Another reason is so his backup John David Booty (#1 QB), who would start for any other program in America, and Rocky Hinds gets to become the next Trojan great. Since Leinart is back, Booty will be the backup while Hinds elected to transfer. Another hot recruit, Mark Sanchez (#2 QB), comes in this year at QB and likely will red shirt. Both Reggie Bush (#5 RB) and LenDale White (#7 RB) return from last year’s running back corps. White has eligibility problems and might miss part or all of 2005, but Bush is more than capable to do it all by himself. Desmond Reed and Chauncey Washington are both explosive runners who would start for anybody but USC. Last year’s receiving corps was the weak link in the USC offense after both starters, Mike Williams and Keary Colbert, were gone. After breaking his leg, Steve Smith (#3 WR) did a great job during the 2nd half. True freshman Dwayne Jarrett (#4 WR) came out of nowhere last year to lead the team in receptions, yards, and touchdowns. The two will be backed up by Whitney Lewis (#2 WR) who was supposed to be the replacement for Colbert last year. Recruit Patrick Turner (#3 WR) could be this year’s Mike Williams and Dwayne Jarrett, but I would rather red shirt him with the loaded WR position. I was very high on true frosh WR Fred Davis last year, but he was converted to TE, where Dominique Byrd (#4 TE) will man. Byrd’s ability to make acrobatic catches makes him a dangerous down-the-field target. The offensive line returns every starter from last year plus Winston Justice, who was a starter in 2003, but missed last year due to suspension. Fred Matua (#12 OL) was a freshman All American at guard while Jeff Byers (#1 OL) started 4 games at LG last year despite being recruited as a center. Sam Baker (#15 OL) replaced NFL draft pick Jacob Rogers at LT last year as a redshirt freshman. He did a marvelous job by being selected to 2nd team PAC 10. The RT position was filled by Taitusi Lutui (606, 370) last year after Justice was suspended. Justice’s return means that Lutui will be backing him up, but don’t expect Lutui to sit on the bench all year. The Trojans don’t have to replace much on offense since everyone returned, but OC Norm Chow departed for the NFL. Leinart was obviously not happy with Chow’s decision as he flirted with entering the supplementary draft, but was persuaded to return in the end. This year’s OC position will be shared by TE coach Lane Kiffin and QB coach Steve Sarkisian. Sarkisian is Chow’s protégé, having played and coached under Chow.

Defense
Unlike the offense, USC’s defense suffered considerable loss during the off season. Of the 7 leading tacklers from 2004, only 2 return (Darnell Bing and Dallas Sartz). Defensive leaders Shaun Cody (#1 DL), Mike Patterson, Lofa Tatupu, and Matt Grootegoed are all gone. It is hard to replace 2 All-Americans on the DL in Cody and Patterson, but I really believe Frostee Rucker and Lawrence Jackson (#6 DL) will more than hold their own this season. Sedrick Ellis (#8 DL), Jeff Schweiger (#3 DL), Chris Barrett (#10 DL) and this year’s recruits (Walker Lee Ashley, Kyle Moore, and Averell Spicer) will get their chance to shine as most of these guys have All-American abilities. The DL will be a lot more solid if Manuel Wright would have come back, but instead, Wright was drafted in the supplemental draft by the Miami Dolphins. Wright is a physical specimen who has a very quick 1st step. The linebacking crew lost 2 key members in Grootegoed and Tatupu, but could even be better this year. Pete Carroll’s recruiting abilities over the past few years allow USC to stock up in all areas including linebackers. Dallas Sartz is a returning senior starter. He will be joined by highly-recruited Keith Rivers (#2 LB) and JC transfer Ryan Powdrell (#6JC LB). I was very high on Rivers from the moment he stepped on campus, but he didn’t get much playing time last year. There is no doubt in my mind that he will be a good one on the weak side. Another talented prospect Thomas Williams (#8 LB) will be lurking for playing time at the outside linebacker positions. Powdrell is a talented senior with no experience, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he shares time with younger players such as true frosh Rey Maualuga (#1 LB) and junior Oscar Lua. Maualuga is a tackling machine and this year’s best prospect at linebacker out of high school. Other than Maualuga, Brian Cushing (#5 LB), Luthur Brown (#6 LB), and Kaluka Maiava are all talented true frosh who will be impact players in the future. The defensive backfield provides experienced safeties, but the cornerbacks could be vulnerable. Hard hitting Darnell Bing, who wears the proud retired #20 of USC athletic director and former Heisman winner Mike Garrett, will be everyone’s All-American. Scott Ware (#1JC DB) will try to stay healthy replacing Jason Leach at the FS position. Part of the problems for USC cornerbacks is the dismissal of Eric Wright. He will likely be replaced by youngster Terrell Thomas, who has good speed and size. Justin Wyatt will be the other CB returning for his senior season. Some true frosh might be able to step in immediately; they are Will Harris (#21 DB), Kevin Thomas (#23 DB), and Cary Harris (#25 DB). Count on identical twins Brandon and Ryan Ting to get at least a few tackles each this season as safeties or special teamers. Hey, I gotta show some love to my fellow Asians. Like the offense, the defense also loses a valuable coach in DL coach Ed Orgeron who helped cultivate what was nicknamed “The Wild Bunch II”, consisting of Kenechi Udeze, Omar Nazel, Shaun Cody, and Mike Patterson, 3 of whom were 1st or 2nd round NFL draft picks. Despite the loss, the defense should be fine since head coach Pete Carroll is the mastermind of the Trojan defense.

Prediction
USC will be the unanimous pre-season #1 going into 2005. Only 2 teams have ever gone wire-to-wire as national champs, the 1999 Florida State Seminoles and last year’s USC Trojans. They have an even scarier offense this year, but will be offset by the loss of Norm Chow and a weaker defense. Looking at the schedule, there really is no one who can challenge SC. The game at Cal will be big, but Cal will be dealing with its own player-replacement problems with departed QB Aaron Rodgers, RB JJ Arrington, WR Geoff McArthur, and a defense that lost its top 6 tacklers. 5 of the 1st 7 games will be on the road, which might lead to an eventual upset. I don’t like the road game against Hawaii to kick off the season since the players will tend to go on vacation rather than take care of business; however, they do have a bye week after that trip to get their minds back to football. Arkansas visiting Memorial Coliseum will not be just another spanking (just ask the 2003 Texas Longhorns about that!). The most likely upset will be against Oregon or Arizona State. Both offenses are capable in challenging a USC defense looking to replace Cody, Patterson, Tatupu, and Grootegoed. The games will be that much tougher being on the road. After a home game against the much improved Arizona Wildcats, the Trojans have two straight road games against Notre Dame and Washington. The Trojans must also not over look Stanford before their showdown for the PAC 10 title against Cal. Fresno State is a good mid-major team that might surprise a Trojan team that comes off of the big game against Cal. And of course, there is always the rivalry game against UCLA. Don’t forget UCLA only lost by 5 points last year. Maybe I am over-analyzing the schedule, but I think there are potential landmines all over it. However, if the defense led by Pete Carroll can get into high gear early, there isn’t a schedule hard enough for these Trojans. Better make room in Heritage Hall, since there will be a throng of hardware coming in after this season.

WASHINGTON



Offense
Last year was a nightmare season for the Huskies. After being a dominating presence in the college football landscape for much of the 80s and 90s, Washington fell to a 1-10 record in 2004 and went winless in Pac10 play. No one on the offense rushed for more than 800 yards, pass for more than 1500 yards, or caught over 500 yards on the season. Kenny James led the team with only 5 touchdowns while QB Casey Paus had an absurd TD-INT ratio of 5-17. Last year saw 3 QBs in action (Paus, Carl Bonnell, and Isaiah Stanback), all of whom returns this year. Isaiah Stanback (#11 QB) is a good runner while the other two are pocket QBs. Former Oregon QB Johnny DuRocher (#13 QB) will also be in the mix as he comes in from the JUCO ranks. I expect either Paus or DuRocher to get the starting job, which means Stanback might bring his 4.4 speed to WR. Kenny James (#23 RB) led the team in rushing last year while Chris Singleton was injured. This year, I expect James to start, but both Singleton and Shelton Sampson will get carries. Also keep an eye on true frosh JR Hasty (#26 RB). A pair of freshmen saw time at WR last year and will be starters this year. Corey Williams and Craig Chambers both have the speed and size to make big plays. Chambers was amazing during the last 4 games, gathering 488 yards with a 21.5 average despite the poor QB play. The entire offensive line returns, all of whom are juniors or seniors. If not for the talent, this unit should improve based on experience and continuity.

Defense
This defense returns the top 6 tacklers from 2004. The Huskies surprisingly led the conference in passing yardage defense, only yielding 186 passing yards per game, but I guess when your opponents rush for 184 yards per game, they won’t need to pass the ball. The starting front 7 returns, including Manase Hopoi (2nd Team Pac10) at DT, Evan Benjamin, and Joe Lobendahn at LB. Hopoi (on the Lombardi watch list) had 9 sacks last year and will receive help from 2nd year player Greyson Gunheim, senior Mike Mapuolesega (#9JC DL), and Brandon Ala. Benjamin and Lobendahn enter their senior season after having 100 tackles each in 2004. Scott White had 83 tackles as the 3rd LB. This should be one of the best LB units in the Pac10. Roy Lewis and Matt Fountaine come in to replace a pair of good CBs in Sam Cunningham and Derrick Johnson. The Safeties combined for 20 starts last year and will be solid again. FS Dashon Goldson (#9JC DB) is a good cover guy while SS CJ Wallace provides ample run support.

Prediction
Tyrone Willingham comes into town after a wrongful dismissal by Notre Dame. The 1-10 Huskies looked dreadful last year on the field, but could be a vastly better team this year due to Willingham and the throng of returning players. 10 starters return on offense with the departing player being a TE. 9 starters return on defense including a very solid front 7. The biggest question mark is who will start at QB and will he improve upon the combined 8-24 TD-INT ratio from last year’s QBs. If the QB situation is settled, being a Willingham-believer, I think the Huskies might make a push for a bowl game. That might sound like a huge task, but if Willingham can lead that Notre Dame team to a 10-2 record in 2002, including victories over Maryland, Purdue, Michigan, Michigan State, Pittsburgh, and Florida State, then surely he can beat the likes of Air Force, Idaho, Notre Dame, Oregon State, Arizona, and Washington State. Not only will the players’ experience come through for the Huskies this year, so will Willingham’s experience in the Pac10 (He coached at Stanford before going to Notre Dame, remember?). The Huskies gets both Cal and USC at home this year, but I believe the most important game will be when Notre Dame comes into town in late September.

WASHINGTON STATE



Offense
Bill Doba will enjoy an offensive unit that returns 9 starters from last year, including all the position players. However, the only 2 losses are both all-conference offensive linemen. Josh Swogger is back as the starter after suffering an injury plagued season where he split time with redshirt freshman Alex Brink. Swogger is more of a pro-type quarter back having a 6-5, 238 frame much like former WSU quarterbacks Matt Kegel, Ryan Leaf, and Drew Bledsoe. Brink is more along the lines of Jason Gesser at 6-2, 208. At running back is Jerome Harrison (#21JC RB) who led the team in rushing with 900 yards last year including a 247 yard effort against UCLA late in the season. Behind Harrison are some very young and inexperienced backs, so it will be crucial for Harrison to stay healthy. The top 6 pass catchers from last year return, including starters Michael Bumpus (#8 WR), Jason Hill, and Chris Jordan. Bumpus enters his 2nd year and is expected to have a big season as WR and punt returner. TE Troy Bienemann is a great player looking to get back to his 2003 form when he was 2nd team Pac10. He will be overlooked in a conference where the TE position is stacked with talent. An experienced center returns, but the rest of the line are either breaking in new starters or having old starters at new positions. Bobby byrd was a good redshirt freshman last year, but will move to LT from LG. Norvell Holmes started at RG last year and will move to LG. Riley Fitt-Chappell and Charles Harris will get 1st stabs at the RG and RT positions respectively.

Defense
Doba was an excellent defensive coordinator at WSU before becoming the head coach in 2003. His signature is a tenacious DL that put up huge sack numbers (55 in 2002 and 50 in 2003). Last year, the Cougars only had 32 sacks, but I expect that to increase with 3 returning starters on the DL. Mkristo Bruce and Adam Braidwood are a pair of pass rushers who could have big years while Aaron Johnson is a rising star in the middle against the run. Will Derting returns as the all-conference linebacker and leader of the defense. He will be joined by Scott Davis who had 86 tackles in 2004. There aren’t a lot of depth pass the starters, and like the RB position, could be a problem if injury strikes. Alex Teems will be solid as one of the cornerbacks, but the rest of the secondary is extremely green. JC transfer Tyron Brackenridge will be counted on as the other corner while Omowale Dada battles him for the position. Many will be given the shot at the safety positions including DeWayne Patterson, Husain Abdullah, Eric Frampton, and Dada.

Prediction
The sophomore slump for Bill Doba might not be a fluke, especially with depth-issues and inexperience on the defense. Washington State gets a much needed easy early schedule as they face Idaho, Nevada, and Grambling State. The Cougs should be able to develop some depth and season the secondary in these games before taking on their Pac10 slate. The first 3 conference games are all winnable games before back-to-back road nightmares to Cal and USC. I don’t expect these 2 games to make or break WSU’s season since Cal and USC are head-and-shoulders above everyone else in the Pac10 (well, maybe not Cal). The key to the season are the 3 games that immediately follow those 2 games to end the season when they face Arizona State and Oregon at home, plus the rivalry game against Washington. Both ASU and Oregon are expected to finish in the top 4 in conference play, so to beat them would be huge for WSU. The Apple Cup will be huge for bragging rights and recruiting in the state of Washington.

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