November 23, 2005

USC vs. Texas – Game of the Century



God forbids me even mentioning “USC vs. Texas” one week away from December, but after the fall of Alabama, UCLA, and Virginia Tech in recent weeks, the Trojans and the Longhorns are the only unblemished teams in Division I-A. Each team has its own worries as USC has to play 9-1 UCLA, while Texas tries to stay motivated against huge underdog opponents (Texas A&M and Colorado/Iowa State). Provided that everything goes as planned, this USC, Texas matchup in the Rose Bowl should be without a doubt the Game of the 21st Century. Being an alumnus and an ardent fan of both schools, I have followed both teams very closely since the beginning of summer. Let’s take a look at this potential matchup.

USC



Strength
USC is riding a 33-game winning streak (would be 34 into the Rose Bowl). They are the two time defending AP national champions. They have been to big games and won them as both the favorites and the underdogs. Every starter on offense is a potential NFL draft pick. Pete Carroll keeps on rolling in top notch young talent who look impressive in mop-up duties (notably QB John David Booty and WR Patrick Turner). And if they do get into the Rose Bowl, the home field advantage of being only 10 miles away from campus will be huge.

One of the knocks on this Trojan team coming into the season was the departure of offensive coordinator Norm Chow, but the offense responded by averaging 48.5 points per game (2nd in the nation). People wondered if the two-time defending national champions plus a Heisman trophy winner, Matt Leinart, still had any hunger left for a third run. I think they answered that question in three comeback wins in hostile environments against Oregon, Arizona State, and Notre Dame. Another question was whether Carroll will have enough footballs to distribute among Reggie Bush, LenDale White, Dwayne Jarrett, and Steve Smith. Looking at the stat sheets can tell you he and his offensive coaches handled that extremely well (Bush and White both are over 1,000 yards rushing, Jarrett and Smith have 1,070 and 900 receiving yards respectively). This offense is as close to an NFL caliber offense as you get in college football. I would even dare to say the USC offense is better than at least ten NFL teams. Many people doubt the bend-but-don’t-break defense of USC, but with this offense, their defense won’t have to win the game for them.

Weakness
No matter how good the Trojans are, history doesn’t lie. No team has ever won 3 consecutive national championships. We can see why that is with the close games that USC has been in this year. However, USC went through the same last year with close wins against Stanford, California, Oregon State, and UCLA. In fact, that is eerily similar to this season. USC played in four close games in both 2004 and 2005 (the aforementioned four from 2004 and Oregon, Arizona State, Notre Dame, and Fresno State for 2005); exactly three road games and one home game both years; one game that came down to the last play in both years (defended against Cal in the redzone in 2004 and scored against Notre Dame in the redzone in 2005).

The special team ranks 85th in the nation in kickoff return defense and dead last in punt return defense. This could be an area opponents can pick on especially teams with good returners such as UCLA with Maurice Drew and Texas with Aaron Ross and Ramonce Taylor. In fact, the Trojan special team is so depleted of players that starter Darnell Bing is on some coverage teams to help boost their performance.

The departure of four All-Americans on defense knocked the elite Trojan defense to middle-of-the-pack this year. The Trojans hasn’t been able to keep any opponents in single digits scoring while giving up 42 in the previous week, the most by a Trojan team under Pete Carroll. Part of the reason is the youth on defense, and the other part is due to injuries. The secondary is especially ravaged with Eric Wright, Kevin Thomas, John Walker, and Terrell Thomas out for the season, leaving the CB position in a vulnerable state. Linebackers Keith Rivers, Dallas Sartz, Brian Cushing, Thomas Williams, and Rey Maualuga have all been banged up for most of the season.

Despite being the 44th ranked defense, you have to look at two important factors in who they play and whether they make big plays. Looking at USC’s schedule, the opposing offenses rank 3rd (Arizona State), 9th (Washington State), 10th (Notre Dame), 11th (Hawaii), 15th (Oregon), 29th (Cal), and 35th (Fresno State) in the nation in yards per game which is a tough slate for anybody. The Trojans would also have played five of the top ten teams in scoring offense by the end of the year! (Fresno State – 5th, UCLA – 6th, Notre Dame – 7th, Arizona State – 9th, and Oregon – 10th) If you looked at the numbers I just presented, the 44th ranked yards per game allowed and the 32nd ranked scoring defense doesn’t look that bad anymore.

Now looking at the big play factor on defense, USC is tied for 2nd in interceptions (22) and 16th in forced fumbles (12) on defense. That is 34 turnovers created (2nd in the nation) compared to only 13 turnovers made for an amazing +/- ratio of +21, which is number one in the country. So even though the defense is giving up a lot, they’re also creating lots of opportunities for the dynamic offense to get on the field.


TEXAS



Strength
Two words – Vince Young. Without a question the most mentally savvy player in college football, Young has become the next big thing out of Texas. Before Young took over as the full-time quarterback of the Texas Longhorns, most non-Longhorn fans in the country remember Texas as that team who lost five straight to Oklahoma including ugly scores such as 63-14 and 65-13; the team that blew a chance at a BCS game against Colorado in the 2001 Big 12 Championship game; and the team that started unproven freshman Chris Simms over record-setting veteran Major Applewhite. Since Vince Young took over, only positive things come to mind in the 28-point comeback in the 2nd half against Oklahoma State in 2004, the 4th-and-18 scramble for a 1st down against Kansas en route to the game winning touchdown late 4th quarter, the physics-defying highlights against Michigan in the 2005 Rose Bowl, the 4th quarter touchdown pass to beat Ohio State in 2005, and the 19-point comeback against Oklahoma State. Besides beating Oklahoma, Vince Young also provide a completely different aura around Mack Brown’s Texas football program, one of in-VINCE-ability. To tell you the truth, when Texas was down 28 to 9 in the 2nd quarter against Oklahoma State this year, I wasn’t worried one bit. If it were anyone else at QB, I would have been in a distraught state, but knowing Young’s track record and seeing his calm demeanor left no doubt in my mind that everything is going to be okay. Vince Young is one of the rare athletes in today’s world where you can use the word confident to describe instead of arrogant. You never see him make demeaning remarks, taunt opponents, or bring attention to himself despite having plenty of opportunities to do so. That quality isn’t only something that makes Vince a good person, it is also the essential ingredient of a leader, and that is what Vince Young is, the leader of the Texas Longhorns football team. His attitude and performance inspire the other players on the team to want to make that extra block, dive for that pass, and fight through that blocker. Sometimes those are the things that differentiate a 10-0 team and an 8-2 one. Despite the 513-yard performance from Reggie Bush, I still believe that Vince Young is the unquestionable Heisman trophy winner, since he is the most valuable player due to his performance and his effect on his teammates.

Young players on offense have stepped up for the Longhorns this year. Notably, true frosh running back Jamaal Charles and his shifty running has been a breath of fresh air for longhorn fans used to four years of the pounding ground game of Cedric Benson. The combination of Selvin Young, Charles, and Henry Melton for goal line situations has solidified the Benson-less backfield for Texas. Although Charles has been playing with injuries, he will get the chance to heal up before the bowl game. Young receivers also stepped up for Texas after having no one go over the 500 receiving yard plateau in 2004. For me, Billy Pittman has been a surprise, catching 686 yards with an amazing 23.7 yards per catch average to lead the team. Pittman was 3rd or 4th on the Texas depth chart during the preseason. Limas Sweed has also been clutch for Texas, making probably the most important catch of the season with the 24-yard touchdown catch in the Ohio State game while back-pedaling down the side of the endzone.

The Texas defense has great talent all around. Starting with the defensive line, Rod Wright is as good as they come. Aaron Harris is a tackling machine in the middle linebacker position. Michael Huff corners the secondary and is one of three finalists for the Thorpe Award for the best defensive back in the country. On the season, Texas has the 3rd best passing defense according to pass ratings and the 21st best rushing defense in the country. They only give up a meager 14.3 points per game, good for 5th in the country, including a shutout. You can’t say this defense boasted their stats against offensively-retarded teams such as Louisiana-Lafayette, Rice, and Baylor. Remember how Ohio State had the ball in the redzone four times and only came away with four field goals? I believe the defense is the main reason that Texas won that game for the reason I just mentioned. They kept Texas in the game, allowing Vince Young to win it in the 4th quarter. Then again in the showdown against Texas Tech, a team averaging 54 points per game going into the game, the Texas defense completely shut them down by allowing only 17 points. Although Tech had 529 yards in the game, Texas’ defense always shut things down once they get into the redzone, which is becoming a theme for this defense in 2005.

Weakness
Thinking about it, the Longhorns really have no crippling weakness. Coming into the season, critics ask the question whether Vince Young has the arm to match his legs. Most of those critics should be satisfied with 2414 passing yards, 62.5% completion, 22 TDs, and only 8 INTs. In fact, Young just had the most touchdown passes in a game for his career with four against Kansas last week. Let’s not talk about Vince Young’s passing, I think Young hasn’t had enough chances to run this year. Although he leads the team with 117 rushes and 774 yards, about 70% of the shotgun option plays that Texas run has the ball going to the running back. I think Young needs to keep the ball more and takeoff himself. Of course, this could just be a deception so Young can turn it around and keep 70% of those runs for the championship game.

Another issue regarding Young’s passing game is his awareness of the pass rush and protection of the football inside the pocket. Young has the improvisational skills to escape most of the time if a play blows up. He has only been sacked 10 times on the year. However, sometimes when wrapped up in the pocket, he will still try to make something happen by pumping the ball with two or three defenders on him. This has happened a few times this year, leading to fumbles and interceptions. Young needs to realize that sometimes, he has to give up on a play if the risk of a turnover is much costlier than going down for a sack. He also tends to take off with a passing grip on the ball even after he’s beyond the line of scrimmage. This has also led to a few fumbles. He needs to learn to better protect the ball after passing the line of scrimmage by tucking the ball under his arm or having both arms around it. Many times in the past, his superior athletic ability did not require him to do these things, but in order to play the perfect game against equally talented athletes, he has to beware of these little things.

THE MATCHUP



USC Offense vs. Texas Defense
We have seen USC’s Offense start games in a variety of ways, throwing seven consecutive screen passes to Jarrett or Smith, run the ball down the middle on every down with White and Bush, and throwing for the homerun ball early in the game. So what are they going to do against Texas? The game plan is to attack the weakness of the opposing defense. If a team lack speed, the ball goes deep or to Reggie Bush off-tackle, but if the opponents lack strength and size, LenDale gets the call. Texas has a very good defensive line and speed in the secondary, so it is unlikely for USC to pound the ball inside or open up deep passes. I expect some screen passes for Reggie Bush to begin the game as well as some short routes to Steve Smith to keep Texas’ defense honest. A good mix of play action passes is also a good idea. Another possibility is to motion Bush out of the backfield into the slot and have him create a mismatch against a linebacker/safety. USC’s offensive line is very good, but they’re not overwhelming in size, so I do not expect them to manhandle Texas.

Texas defensive coordinator Gene Chizik has faced USC twice in the past four years, so he has as good a chance as anyone at stymieing this amazing offense. He has the luxury of having Michael Huff, who has the ability to shutdown Dwayne Jarrett of the Trojans. The defense will not need to bring the safeties up because the front seven should be adequate in stopping LenDale White. They need to keep someone deep to prevent big plays by Reggie Bush and keep an eye on TE Dominique Byrd, who made some athletic deep catches against Oklahoma in last year’s championship game. The key for Texas is to force some turnovers early in the game. We have seen that if USC turns the ball over early, they can dig themselves a pretty deep hole (against Oregon). However, Texas has only had eight interceptions and ten fumble recoveries on the year.

Texas Offense vs. USC Defense
Texas has done a good job at setting up the run with the pass. I expect Texas to start the game against USC in the same way they did against Kansas, and that is to have Vince Young chug the ball deep. Considering how banged up the USC secondary is, there’s little doubt that Young will exploit them early, however, he will need to watch out for the double-edged blade since USC concedes big plays, but also has 22 interceptions by 16 different players. There is no doubt Texas is going to score off of USC’s defense, but they need to make sure each drive is long enough for USC’s offense to get out of sync. They also need to watch those turnovers as I stated before.

Pete Carroll has his work cutout for him in trying to figure out how to defend Vince Young. Should he blitz Darnell Bing? Or should he drop seven and keep a spy on Young? I have absolutely no idea how Carroll will pull this one off. His one luxury is that everyone on defense has good enough hands to make interceptions. If fortunate enough, the USC defense can also force some turnovers if Young become passive about protecting the football. We’ve seen it a couple of times this year when USC is able to break opposing offensive momentums with timely turnovers early against Hawaii, Notre Dame, Washington, Washington State, Stanford, and Cal. Pete Carroll shocked everyone when he shutdown Oklahoma’s dynamic offense last year. I won’t be surprised if he surprises everyone again despite having a less talented defense to work with.

Wrap Up



That’s all that I have to say about these two tremendous teams. I know that I pointed out more positives than negatives for both teams, but it happens when you are biased. At this point, I’m sure many of you are asking “Who are you going to root for if USC really does play Texas?” I can’t answer that question because I don’t know myself. I went to Texas for four years and went to numerous games home and away, pep rallies, and even watched the 2001 Hex Rally from on top of the Main Building. There is no doubt that I have burnt orange blood in me, it is just that recently, it’s been turning a little cardinal and gold with the winning streak and personalities on the USC team. I have only been at USC for one and a half years, but it is a much smaller campus so I felt closer to the school and football team. Every afternoon in the fall, I can hear the band practicing while in class. I love the fact that Heritage Hall (where USC’s six Heisman Trophies reside) is so accessible to everyone. I know the players a lot better since LenDale White, Reggie Bush, and Matt Leinart all were 1st year starters when I was in my 1st year at SC. I watched them grow into the All-Americans they are today. Above all else, I love USC because of Pete Carroll. For those who haven’t met the guy, the charisma does not stop when the camera stops rolling. The guy is so friendly and approachable that he approached us when my Texas gear-wearing buddies and I were visiting Heritage Hall. As far as predictions, I’m sorry to disappoint you, but I am not offering one right now (back off Laura!) I just hope the two teams play a great game that will live up to all the hype that will be generated. Good luck, Longhorns and Trojans!

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