August 28, 2007

2007 College Football TOP 25 Predictions

Main factors going into my top 25 picks include the team’s talent, chemistry, and schedule. My predictions are for rankings at the end of the year, after all the bowl games. Regular season predicted records will be in parenthesis following the team names. Why should you believe in my predictions? Here is the track record of my predictions from 2005 and last year:

* In 2005, neither Alabama or Penn State were in the preseason top 25 of the AP and Coache’s polls, but I had them ranked #14 and 13 respectively in my rankings. They ended up finishing #8 and #3 respectively at the end of the year.

* Last year, I predicted that there might not be an undefeated National Champion. This happened to be the truth as Florida won the title despite a loss. Although I had Florida outside of the top 10, I predicted that they will improve in Meyer’s second year as head coach; however, nobody expected them to win the national title with such a brutal schedule!

* Texas was my pick for #1 last year. I expected them to lose one of the road games against Nebraska or Texas Tech, possibly Kansas State. Although Texas handled Nebraska and Tech, they did stumble against KSU as I predicted.

* I had USC losing to a weaker Pac 10 team on the road after demolishing Arkansas in the opener. Both happened, but instead of losing to Arizona according to my predictions, they lost to Oregon State.

* I had Louisville as a one-loss team in 2006 losing only to Rutgers. Louisville ended the season with a 12-1 record (including bowl game) with the only loss against, guess who? Rutgers.

* I expected Auburn to finish #5 with a 10-2 record (not including bowl). They finished #9 AP and #8 Coaches with an 11-2 (bowl) record. My predicted losses were against lesser opponents in South Carolina and Arkansas while beating powerhouses LSU and Florida. They managed to beat both LSU and Florida, lost to Arkansas, but unfortunately lost to Georgia instead of South Carolina for their second loss. Well, close enough.

* A list of big games that I predicted correctly: Louisville beat West Virginia, Louisville beat Miami, Tennessee beat California, Auburn beat LSU, Auburn beat Florida, Florida State beat Miami, Florida beat LSU, Ohio State beat Michigan, Notre Dame beat Penn State, Ohio State beat Penn State. And what I considered to be major upsets: Rutgers beat Louisville, Arkansas beat Auburn, Arkansas beat Tennessee, Wisconsin beat Penn State, Boston College beat Virginia Tech.

* My preseason rankings for 2006 beat both Phil Steele and Athlon in terms of accuracy and only trailed Sporting News out of the three.

1. USC (12-0)

Strong offensive backfield and a stronger defense, need I say more? Prior to last season, USC has been in the +20s in turnovers, but only +4 last year, dropping them to a 2-loss season. Head coach Pete Carroll stresses forcing turnovers so I expect that number to jump up to the plus high-teens to the twenties again. Don’t be surprised if half of the Pac 10 All-Conference Defensive Team are Trojans by the end of the year. RB Emmanuel Moody (#6RB, meaning 6th ranked recruit at the RB position when he came out of high school) and Marc Tyler (#1RB) won’t play due to injuries (Moody will transfer), but nobody is losing sleep as the backfield is deeper than the Agent Smiths in whichever Matrix sequel that is. Sr. Chauncey Washington (#12RB) and so. Stafon Johnson (#3RB) should start the season, but freshman Joe McKnight (#3DB) might take over the tailback position by the end of the year. One interesting fact is freshman sensation QB Mitch Mustain of Arkansas transferred to USC during the offseason. Watch out for the game at Oregon right after going to South Bend. The game at Arizona State right before the grudge game against UCLA might also be dangerous. We’ve seen USC eat up non-conference BCS teams in the last five years, Nebraska should be no different this year.

2. Penn State (12-0)

You won’t see Penn State this high in any preseason polls, but this is a team that had their only losses come against top ten teams either at the time of the game or at the end of the season. Tony Hunt is gone at RB, but this will the Anthony Morelli’s (#6QB) breakout year. The Lions lose nearly 25 sacks on defense, but MLB Dan Connor (#3LB) leads a group of green yet talented defenders. The defensive backs are the best in the Big Ten with three returning starters and sophomore AJ Wallace (#4DB) is the projected corner replacement. CB Justin King (#4DB) will be a Thorpe Finalist and might notch a few receptions as a flanker. Penn State’s hardest game comes at Michigan, however I expect them to win against a worn down Wolverines team that faces Notre Dame and Oregon in the previous two weeks. The most dangerous game is the following week at Illinois, where a sleeper Illioni team might sneak up on a few of the big boys this year. Iowa, Wisconsin, and Ohio State all comes to the 100,000 plus Death Valley crowd. Penn State finishes the season with two road games, but against lowly Temple and lifeless MSU.

3. Virginia Tech (11-1) lose at Georgia Tech

No, Virginia Tech’s football team will not be better just because of what happened on campus in the spring. However, it might give the players a boost at the beginning of the season, but will take a mental toll towards season’s end. The offense returns virtually everyone and the defense returns all the key parts. QB Sean Glennon had a year to mature and will be complemented by RB Branden Ore. The strength of the defense resides in the linebacking core of Vince Hall and Xavier Adibi. They are joined by CBs Brandon Flowers and Macho Harris (#5) to form a terrific defensive back seven. Creating turnovers will be a key as last year, Virginia Tech combined for -7 in turnovers in their only three losses. I expect Tech to upset LSU early on and lose the road game to Georgia Tech for their only blemish.

4. Texas (10-2) lose to Nebraska, at Oklahoma State

Colt McCoy’s (#11QB) injury derailed Texas’ hope for the Big 12 Championship. They lose some linemen and DBs, but replaces them with more talented ones. The offensive line gets Cedric Dockery (#10OL) back from injury and Tony Hills. The defensive back unit could not have gotten any worse at the end of the year giving up five 300 yard passing game including 519 to Texas Tech. Defensive coordinator Gene Chizik left for Iowa State as Larry MacDuff and Duane Akina takes his place. The schedule is manageable, but suspensions in the offseason will affect the Longhorns on the field. Sergio Kindle (#1LB) and Henry Melton (#13RB) were arrested for driving under the influence and probably will be in Mac Brown’s dog house for the season. I expect a tough game early against TCU, followed by the showdown in Dallas against Oklahoma. The Longhorns should get through the first half, but will be upset at home by Nebraska and the following week against OSU. I expect them to be fully prepared for the game against A&M in College Station after having a week off.

5. Rutgers (11-1) lose at Louisville

Last year’s post game image at Rutgers Stadium after the win against #3 Louisville is what every fan wants to experience. Ray Rice and crew are back for more in 2007. They don’t have FB Brian Leonard anymore, but I think QB Mike Teel is ready to be a play maker instead of just someone to hand Rice the ball. They need to retool a bit on defense, but the first three games will allow them to do so. Two true freshmen might contribute right away in guard Anthony Davis (#7OL) and linebacker Manny Abreu (#15LB). The game against USF will be tough coming on a short week (the game is on Thursday). Then, West Virginia comes into town the following week. Even if Rutgers wins both, they still need to watch out for the game at Connecticut. There was a similar situation last year when the Scarlet Knights got blown out at Cincinnati one week after upsetting #3 Louisville and rising to #7 in the polls. The showdown in Louisville is the last game of the season after a bye week. The Cardinal offense might be too much for the defense to handle.

6. Michigan (10-2) lose to Penn State, at Michigan State

The offense returns with all the skills positions, but the defense loses key veterans. We all know what Chad Henne (#1QB), Mike Hart (#11RB), and Mario Manningham (#6WR) can do from the last few years. They receive protection from a solid line led by All-American candidate Jake Long. It seems like WR Adrian Arrington who had 8 TD receptions in 2006 will will start in the opener after being suspended for the spring. Main concern will be on the defense. The question is whether Michigan can reload after losing key players Prescott Burgess, Leon Hall, and LaMarr Woodley. Even with last year’s defense, the Wolverines surrendered 707 passing yards in the last two games against Ohio State and USC. The defense is why I do not have Michigan in the top 5. They can potentially go 0-3 in the last three games against Michigan State and Wisconsin on the road and Ohio State at home.

7. West Virginia (10-2) lose at South Florida, at Rutgers

The Mountaineers became everyone’s dark horse national title winner a year ago with the dynamic duo of Steve Slaton and Pat White. Their annual match up with Louisville is becoming a great rivalry since both teams are expected to be undefeated going into it. The personnel is pretty much in tack for another run at the championship, but I doubt if their defense will hold up. Last season, the Mountaineers surrendered an average of 315 passing yards per game in the last 6, going 4-2, but could easily be 2-4. I don’t think West Virginia will win the Big East due to their schedule. The season opens with four of the first six games on the road. They will lose against South Florida for the second year and expect Rutgers to take out the frustration from last year’s triple OT loss in this year’s game in New Brunswick. If not careful, Cincinnati might pull off an upset, catching the Mountaineers off guard after the victory vs. Louisville.

8. Georgia Tech (10-2) lose at Miami, Georgia

Reggie Ball and Calvin Johnson are gone, but coming back is a stout defense that held ten opponents under 92 yards rushing. Sr. linebacker Philip Wheeler leads the group that returns eight starters. Everyone expect Tech to have a drop off on offense, but I believe they’ll be better. RB Tashard Choice is coming off of a spectacular season. I expect him to be better in 2007 with the middle of the offensive line staying intact. QB Reggie Ball was a four-year starter, but his erratic 44.4% completions in 2006 won’t be missed. I expect Taylor Bennett to do a fine job stepping in. Another Johnson, James Johnson will be the go-to receiver. Although not the All-American Calvin was, he is good enough to keep the chains moving. Despite only a 9-5 record, last year was a tremendous success where the Yellow Jackets beat Virginia Tech and Miami while reaching the ACC Championship game. The blowout loss to Clemson was the only sore point as the defense yielded an uncharacteristic 321 rushing yards. The other four losses were 4 points to Notre Dame, 3 points to Georgia, 3 points to Wake Forest and 3 points in the bowl to West Virginia (despite giving up 311 rushing yards). In the last three losses to Georgia, WF, and WVU, Tech suffered -2 in turnovers in all three games. In 2007, Tech will avenge the losses to ND and Clemson, but will lose at Miami on the end of back-to-back away games. They will be fully prepared for Virginia Tech. Georgia will once again get the better of their in-state rivals, but Tech will capture the ACC by beating Clemson a second time.

9. Oklahoma (10-2) lose to Texas, at Texas Tech

This will be Oklahoma’s best team since 2004. Add a manageable schedule to that and you get another 10-win season and possibly a national title. I think the running back situation is actually pretty even with last year despite losing Adrian Peterson. Allen Patrick and DeMarco Murray (#5RB) will fill in and do well since there won’t be as much expectation. Patrick did a great job filling in for Peterson last year and will build upon that. The QB situation is still undecided, but this is a school where Jason White won the Heisman, so does it really matter who plays QB? As long as they’re surrounded by weapons in the form of All-American Malcolm Kelly (#4WR) and Juaquin Iglesias. Last year’s defense did not pressure the quarterback much with a season high of five against lowly Baylor. This year’s team loses Rufus Alexander, Zach Latimer, CJ Ah You, and Larry Birdine. Although they have one of the best secondaries in the country, it will mean nothing unless the front seven gels. In the last three games last year, OU narrowly escaped Oklahoma State and Nebraska, needing +5 turnover margin to beat Nebraska 21-7, before losing to Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl we all know too well. All the big games against Miami, Missouri, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma State are at home, with the annual Red River Rivalry against Texas at the neutral Cotton bowl. I expect OU to win all their home games although Miami, Missouri, and Texas A&M will all be tough ones. The Sooners will also lose in Lubbock where Texas Tech will pick apart the secondary without much pressure up front.

10. LSU (9-3) lose to Virginia Tech, at Kentucky, Auburn

Everyone wants to see a Les Miles vs. Pete Carroll media day right before the BCS Championship Game, but if you ask me, Miles isn’t even on the same level yet. He inherited a talented team and probably will win with Saban’s players much like Urban Meyer won with Ron Zook’s players, but as we saw last year, it’s hard to come up unscathed in the SEC, not to mention having a title contender as a non-conference game. I don’t expect a drop off at the QB position. This team does not appear to have any holes except for the lack of turnovers forced. All-American LaRon Landry leaves some big shoes to fill. Unlike QB JaMarcus Russell’s replacement Matt Flynn, who is a sr. with starting experience, Landry’s replacements Curtis Taylor and Danny McCray combined for 45 tackles in their entire career. However, the inexperience at safety will be made up by a pressuring defensive line and a pair of senior cornerbacks in the passing game. The running defense will be anchored by sr. tackle Glenn Dorsey (#7DL)and sr. linebacker Ali Highsmith. LSU finished last year at #3 in the polls after demolishing an overrated Notre Dame team 41-14. That is the only impressive win they had. Against the four ranked teams they played, they lost to Auburn 3-7 and Florida 10-23. They did beat Tennessee 28-24 and Arkansas 31-26, however, they could have lost to Tennessee if not for a TD with 9 seconds left. The Tigers also had to squeeze out a win in OT against lowly Mississippi at home. I expect them to lose to Kentucky led by gun-slinger QB Andre Woodson in a game sandwiched between games against Florida and Auburn. Despite two conference losses, I rank LSU above some two-loss teams since I expect them to win the SEC and go to the Sugar Bowl.

11. TCU (11-1) lose at Texas

This defense is good enough to maintain a .500 record in a BCS conference, not to mention the Mountain West Conference. It all starts with defensive ends Tommy Blake and Chase Ortiz, a pair of 1st Team MWC for the past two seasons. They will likely be first day draft choices in the next NFL draft. Other than Blake and Ortiz, there are seven more returning starters. This unit succumbed to only 61 rushing yards per game in 2007! While breaking in a new QB, the load will be on jr. running back Aaron Brown. The schedule pits TCU against three BCS conference foes in Baylor, Texas, and Stanford. I expect the Horned Frogs to breeze past Baylor and Stanford while losing a close one to Texas. The conference slate is not as easy as you might think. The game against Utah will likely determine the conference champs. The visit to Provo against BYU will also be crucial. TCU is my pick for the non-BCS conference team to make a BCS bowl game.

12. Florida State (10-2) lose at Clemson, at Virginia Tech

Unlike previous years, this Florida State team will not be expected to challege for the national title. However, I believe this team will do well without the expectations. We all know FSU is loaded with talent, so the change at offensive coordinator could rejuvenate the club. Jimbo Fisher comes over from LSU to groom Drew Weatherford and Xavier Lee. The offense should put up bigger numbers under Fisher while the defense is as stout as ever with eight returning starters. Safety Myron Rolle is one of the best and one of my favorite college players today. The schedule is pretty tough, opening on the road at Clemson as Labor Day Monday’s primetime featured game. After opening the season against Miami for the last few years, Clemson should not pose as a problem. However, Florida State will drop a pair on the road towards the end of the season. Boston College will sneak up on the Seminoles as they anticipate for Virginia Tech the following weekend.

13. Tennessee (10-2) lose at California, at Florida

Boy it was tough picking out the SEC East winner. Four teams were in consideration, but all four with doubts. Georgia has a young QB plus heavy losses on the defensive line and linebacker positions. Florida only returns two starters on defense. South Carolina is still unproven even though they’ve made big improvements under two years with Spurrier as head coach. Tennessee wins by default with the least amount of doubts. The only blatant weakness for the Volunteers is at wide outs. They lose the top three receivers including first round pick Robert Meachem, but then again, Tennessee has never had a problem finding the next go-to guy at WR. The defense should be a rock with an experienced linebacking crew headed by Jerod Mayo. They must improve on the 147 rushing ypg given up last year. With both starting DEs returning and a pair of upperclassmen (JT Mapu and Demonte Bolden) at DT, I expect production to improve. The schedule is brutal early on, but a lot better than the rest of the SEC West. Tennessee faced Cal and Florida on the road in September, but only has one tough road game the rest of the year at Alabama. The Crimson Tide had some players suspended at the beginning of the year so I expect Tennessee to exploit that in October. Georgia, South Carolina, and Arkansas all comes to Knoxville this season.

14. Missouri (10-2) lose at Oklahoma, Texas A&M

Everyone is talking about the Big 12 South since possibly five of the six teams from the South will make it to a bowl game. Nobody is talking about the North Division, and even if they are, Nebraska is headlining all the papers with a new-age aerial attack. Overshadowed by all of this is a solid Missouri team led by dark horse Heisman candidate Chase Daniels (#7QB). Daniels and RB Tony Temple (#4QB) will combine for more than 2,500 rushing yards in 2007. The three leading receivers also returns this season. There is no doubt Missouri can score with the best of them, but the defense returns only five starters while losing five of the top seven tacklers including Xzavie Jackson and Brian Smith who combined for 15 sacks. Despite that, the defensive line is still full of capable players such as Evander Hood and Lorenzo Williams. The schedule starts off with the potential of an upset by Illinois. The battle of the Big 12 North comes in a game against Nebraska. Since the game is in Columbia, MO following a bye week for Missouri, I’ll take them over the Huskers. The two losses will come against Big 12 opponents at Oklahoma and against Texas A&M.

15. Boise State (11-1) lose at Fresno State

Boise State will take a step back this year with the departure of Jared Zabransky, the top four leading receivers, and some key players on the defensive line. However, running back Ian Johnson is back to add to his 3rd Team All-American sophomoric performance from a year ago. The offensive line returns fairly intact to allow the new position players to settle down. The toughest games will be in-conference opponents Fresno State and Nevada. I don’t think another undefeated season is in the making due to so much personnel loss, but I do expect Boise State to beat their 3rd BCS Conference opponent in the last three years (Washington). An end-of-the-year trip to Hawaii might determine who goes to a BCS game.

16. Florida (9-3) lose at LSU, at South Carolina, Florida State

What Florida did last year is simply phenomenal. Urban Meyer’s Gators went from not even in the championship conversation to handing Ohio State a beat down for the ages. The defense surrendered 82 yards of total offense in the Championship Game! Unfortunately, that same defense only returns two starters, one being All-American candidate Derrick Harvey (#4DL). This year, Meyer will have his own QB (Tim Tebow) and RB (Kestahn Moore). We will see how his personnel fair compared to mostly Ron Zooks players from the previous two years. I don’t see a repeat champion as Florida has Tennessee, Auburn, and Florida State at home, LSU and South Carolina on the road, and Georgia at a neutral site. However, it’ll be interesting to see Urban Meyer sticking at a place for more than two years (left Bowling Green and Utah after two seasons prior to coming to Florida). Although Florida did win the national title last year, I can’t see why both polls have Florida in the top 10 (#6 in AP, #3 in USA Today). We’re talking about a team with only eight returning starters!

17. Iowa (9-3) lose at Wisconsin, at Penn State, Illinois

Iowa has been disappointing the last two seasons after finishing three years in a row in the top ten. Albert Young back at RB with talented Jake Christensen (#6QB) to lead a potent offense with a rebuilt offensive line. I am not concerned due to Ferentz’s background as an excellent offensive line coach. Plenty of blue-chippers will get a shot at starting on the line and will succeed at it. The defense returns eight, including leading tackler, Mike Klinkenborg. The team had -11 in turnovers last season. This should improve in 2007. Iowa definitely has the talent and the schedule to win it all (does not have to play Michigan or Ohio State). However, they do not get a bye week all year, ending the season on November 17th. We all saw what happened when Ohio State had the long layoff between last year’s Michigan game and the BCS Championship game. I expect Iowa to lose whatever bowl game they go to.

18. Ohio State (9-3) lose at Purdue, at Penn State, at Michigan

In 2007, everyone will remember the Buckeyes team that got lit up in the BCS Championship game instead of the one that went 12-0 and dominated the regular season. If not for the numerous weeks between the Michigan game and the National Championship game, I think Ohio State would have won the game easily (another reason for a conference championship game). Despite all that, we tend to forget what a great job head coach Jim Tressel and defensive coordinator Mark Dantonio did with a defense that returned only two starters! The Key to that defense, James Laurinaitis is back, as are most of the defensive backs. The offense loses Heisman winner Troy Smith, leading rusher Antonio Pittman, wide receivers Ted Gin and Anthony Gonzalez. The offensive line stars left tackle Alex Boone (#2OL) and should relieve some growing pains surely to be experienced by running backs Chris Wells (#1RB) and Maurice Wells (#11RB). Instead of the high-scoring offense seen last year, I expect Ohio State to play Tressel ball again, which is a sufficient offense based on a stout defense. In the close win against Michigan and the loss against Florida last year, Ohio State was -5 in turnovers while going +14 in other games. The schedule is harder this year, having key conference games against Penn State and Michigan on the road. The Buckeyes do get Wisconsin at home. I think anything more than 9 wins is just too much to ask for from this young offensive squad.

19. UCLA (9-3) lose at Utah, at Oregon St., at USC

UCLA has a very good returning defense for 2007. They only lose Justin Hickman who had 12.5 sacks last year, but Bruce Davis returns with his 12.5 sacks at the other DE position. Chris Horton returns as the leading tackler at the SS spot. The offense also returns 10 starters including former #1 prospect out of high school Ben Olson (#1QB). Lots of expectations are being built up for the 2007 Bruins. I don’t think they’ll respond well to the pressure, especially with two early games where BYU and Utah might sneak up on them. From previous years, we know that the Pac 10 is a pretty even conference. Even USC could not avoid unexpected upsets from Oregon State and UCLA last year. I won’t be surprised if the Bruins drop one to Washington, Washinton State, Arizona, or Arizona State.

20. Clemson (9-3) lose at Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, at South Carolina

I pick Clemson to be in the top 25 mainly due to the combo backs James Davis and CJ Spiller who combined for 2125 rushing yards last year. However, they must replace QB Will Proctor and unanimous All-American defensive end Gaines Adams. Cullen Harper is the starting QB for now until hot recruit Willy Korn (#2QB) gets a grasp of the offense. The defense returns five of the front seven. Replacing Adams is Ricky Sapp (#5LB) who had four sacks as a true frosh. Both CBs depart, but Clemson has a track record of finishing strong in the pass defense category. They were torched by the aerial attack of South Carolina and Kentucky last year, so I expect the unit to be weaker until the CB position gets more experience. The Tigers are set to start a pair of sophomores at CB against Florida State in Crezdon Butler and Chris Chancellor. The Florida State game is Clemson’s opener, and what a way to open the season than to play a division rival on Labor Day Monday night. I expect Clemson to squeeze by in a defensive struggle. The schedule then drifts off into three sub-par teams in Louisiana Monroe, Furman, and NC State before getting Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech back-to-back. The rest of the season should be no competition with the exception of Boston College and South Carolina. The Gamecocks had 492 yards on Clemson last year on a balanced attack (208 rushing, 284 passing) and should give them problems again in 2007.

21. Louisville (8-4) lose at Cincinnati, at West Virginia, at USF, Rutgers

Head coach Bobby Petrino is gone to coach the Vick-less Falcons, but Brian Brohm (#8QB) stayed for his senior year. He will be coached by former Tulsa HC Steve Kragthorpe who has a history of coaching QBs with the Buffalo Bills. Kragthorpe was able to turn the Tulsa squad around to three-eight win seasons after back-to-back one win seasons under previous coach Keith Burns. The offensive coordinators will be Brian’s older brother Jeff Brohm and Charlie Stubbs. Mario Urrutia will be Brohm’s main target while Anthony Allen will get the first shot to replace Michael Bush and Kolby Smith at running back. The defense loses four of the top five tacklers including first round pick Amobi Okoye. They do get Miami transfer Willie Williams (#1LB) at linebacker. I like the new head coach and the offense, but the defense is in for a struggle against offensive-minded teams like West Virginia and USF. The schedule is easy early on, with the potential of having Louisville in the top five with a 6-0 start. The game at Cincinnati is a potential upset with the Wildcats returning eight starters on either side of the ball. This is the team that only lost by six last year at Louisville. From there, the bottom might fall out with back-to-back road games against WVU and USF, not to mention Pittsburgh and Rutgers at home.

22. California (9-3) lose at UCLA, at Arizona St., USC

Jeff Tedford is an offensive-minded coach with all his weapons back in QB Nate Longshore, RB Justin Forsett, and WR DeSean Jackson (#1WR). Forsett was not a starter, but ran for 626 last year and 999 yards in 2005 behind Marshawn Lynch. However, the defense loses Desmond Bishop, Daymeion Hughes, and Brandon Mebane. Even with the defensive trio, the Golden Bears surrendered 366 ypg last year. I see California as the prototypical Pac 10 team in 2007; all offense and no defense. I’ll give them the opener vs. Tennessee, but they might not break .500 this year.

23. Miami (8-4) lose at Oklahoma, Georgia Tech, at Florida St., at Virginia Tech

The cupboard is full with 16 returning starters, nine on offense. QB Kyle Wright has one last shot at redemption being the number one QB prospect out of high school. Edgerrin James’ cousin Javarris James rushed for over 800 yards as a freshman and will be the featured back in 2007. Lance Leggett and Sam Shields can both run sub-4.4s at WR. The offensive line is massive with plenty of blue chippers. The defense is led by All-American candidates Calais Campbell at DE and Kenny Phillips (#2DB) at safety. All in all, this team is loaded with talent, but after a disappointing 7-6 season and a fired head coach, Miami needs to prove to everyone they can still dominate. The defense was solid all year long in 2006 giving up an average of 68 rushing ypg and 188 passing ypg. Against Miami's defense, nobody passed for more than 300 (including Brian Brohm of Louisville, only 294), and only Virginia rushed for over 100 yards. However, the offense only averaged 3.5 yards per carry on the year with 197 passing ypg. The team’s nose dive after the Duke game is mainly due to turnovers. In the last five regular season games, the Hurricanes had a -11 turnover ratio resulting in a 1-4 record. Even in the game against Duke where 13 players were suspended, Miami needed a +4 turnover ratio to barely beat the Blue Devils 20-15. I expect Miami’s defense to get them back to an eight-win team in 2007. Everyone on the schedule is beatable, depending mostly on the performance of the offense.

24. Oklahoma State (9-3) lose at Texas A&M, Nebraska, at Oklahoma

Bobby Reid (#5QB), Dantrell Savage (#11RB JC), and Adarius Bowman (#16WR) makes one of the best triumvirates in college football today. Keith Toston added 631 rushing yards as a true freshman running back last year and will provide Savage with plenty of support. The defense returns seven starters, but none on the front line. Nathan Peterson does return with eight sacks from last year at defensive end. This year’s star recruit Richetti Jones (#9DL) might see some time at end as well. The schedule starts on the road against Georgia and ends on the road against Oklahoma; it is not a walk in the park by any means. However, they do have Division I-AA Sam Houston State in between games with Texas Tech and Texas A&M. They have a terrific shot at upsetting Texas at home since they get the Longhorns after an off-week right after Texas’ tilt against Nebraska. I almost picked OSU to upset OU in their annual showdown, but looking back, OSU last beat OU in 2002 and that was in Stillwater. This year’s game is in Norman where OU dominated the last two games with a combined 94-23 scoring margin.

25. Illinois (9-3) lose to Missouri, Penn State, Michigan

Ron Zook’s recruiting prowess will have him beating Wisconsin and Ohio State this year. I expect Isiah “Juice” Williams (#11QB) to improve in his second year at QB along with blue-chip freshman Arrelious Benn (#1WR). Nine starters return on defense to form one of the more veteran squads in the Big Ten. Despite finishing last in the conference, Illinois actually outgained opponents by 24 ypg, which was 4th best in the conference! The Illioni suffered negative turnover ratios in the last five years. That has to change and will change in 2007 to make them a winning team. The team will struggle out of the gate against a top ten-caliber Missouri team, but they will shock everyone by beating Wisconsin at home and Ohio State on the road. The 4-0 finish according to my prediction will land them in a bowl and great momentum for 2008.

Site Meter