November 15, 2006

Big Game Preview



Michigan vs. Ohio State, I'm sure, is on the minds of all college football fans right about now. But the game that could be just as big in determining who appears in the national title game is California vs. Southern California. There are an ample of other good games including the two games, Maryland vs. Boston College and Virginia Tech vs. Wake Forest, that will decide who will meet Georgia Tech in the ACC Championship Game. Alabama will try to upset Auburn in the traditional Iron Bowl. Some might be indifferent, but I am interested in seeing how the big 3 in the Big East, Rutgers, Louisville, and West Virginia, will do in their games this week. As for the other national title contenders, Notre Dame, Florida, Arkansas, Wisconsin, and LSU, they'll be playing Division II schools (yes, I count Buffalo as a D-II school), a military institute, and really bad Mississippi teams.

Michigan at Ohio State


It seems like years ago that Michigan beat then-number-two Notre Dame at South Bend and Ohio State demolished then-number-two Texas in Austin. The two schools have ever since disappeared from the headlines despite being number one and number two. There were some close calls, but there was never a doubt that the matchup in Columbus on November 18 was going to be the unprecedented regular season finale of a #1 Ohio State team against a #2 Michigan team. This game has built up enough hype to unseat the Texas vs. USC game earlier this year as the most hyped game ever! However, I will enjoy watching this game to the fullest while eating pre-Thanksgiving turkey and drinking beers with my friends. Sorry, but I’m not a big enough fan to dissect this game like the way I did the Texas/USC game. Let me just point out a few things that came to my head while thinking about this game.

1. Could there be a rematch in January?


We all know the winner is guaranteed a spot in the National Championship game, but few of us realize that the loser is not necessarily out of the national championship picture! The last time something like this happened was when Florida lost to Florida St. in the 1996 finale, but beat the Seminoles in the Sugar Bowl to clinch the national title. Since the Michigan/Ohio State game will be the last game of the regular season for both sides, there are plenty of opportunities for other teams vying for the second spot to be beat, especially considering most of those teams will have to play a conference championship game.

Here’s the remaining schedule of other teams with a chance to play in the BCS Championship game:
1. Florida – at Florida State, SEC Championship game
2. USC – vs Cal, vs Notre Dame, at UCLA
3. Notre Dame – at USC
4. Arkansas – vs LSU, SEC Championship game
5. Rutgers – at West Virginia
6. West Virginia – vs South Florida, vs Rutgers
7. Louisville – at Pitt, UConn

Let’s assume the loser of the Michigan/Ohio State won’t drop lower than 5th behind Florida, USC, Notre Dame, and Arkansas in the AP and USA Today polls (ahead of Rutgers, West Virginia, and Wisconsin), the following scenario will ascend the losing team back into the #2 spot by bowl season: If Florida loses to Arkansas in the SEC Championship game, Arkansas loses to LSU prior to the matchup against Florida, Notre Dame loses to USC, USC loses to Cal or UCLA. Although it seems like a complicated what-if-situation, all those things are very likely to happen; there aren’t any David vs. Goliath events that need to happen.

But when the above happens, there will be a debate of whether an unbeaten Rutgers deserves to go to the national championship game. Well, the easiest solution is if Rutgers to lose to West Virginia in Morgantown, however, if Rutgers win, it will be a strong resume-building win against a top-10 team on the road. Wisconsin will also have a legit bid at the #2 BCS spot only if Ohio State loses to Michigan. Since Michigan beat Wisconsin earlier, the Wolverines will without a doubt be on top of the Badgers if both are one-loss teams.

2. Is this where the Heisman is won or lost?


Troy Smith has been the hands-down favorite to win the 2006 Heisman Trophy from day one. Many people think the Michigan game will make or break his quest for the Heisman, but I think he’s already won it. The closest competitions are Notre Dame’s Brady Quinn and Michigan’s Mike Hart. Quinn has good stats in every game this year and has only thrown interceptions in two games, but Notre Dame has a loss and three close wins (against Georgia Tech, Michigan State, and UCLA) where as Ohio State’s only close call was against Illinois. Hart is enjoying a fine junior season, but having to give up some carries to Kevin Grady and Jerome Jackson might have cost him some votes.

Rutgers’ Ray Rice and Arkansas’ Darren McFadden will also garner attention from Heisman voters, but neither players play at high-profiled football programs like a Ohio State, Notre Dame, or Michigan. That doesn’t mean they don’t have a chance, but both players will likely need to win out their remaining games and post monstrous numbers against tough opponents (Rice against West Virginia and McFadden against LSU and Florida). One or two more 200-yard, 3 touchdown performances by either backs will significantly help their causes. But even then, Troy Smith will need a 3 for 20, 5 interception-caliber game to open the door for Quinn, Hart, McFadden, and Rice.

3. I told you so!


Ok, I have to blow my own horn a little here. If you have read my season preview back in September, you would’ve known that I had Ohio State #3 (only behind my beloved Texas and USC) and Michigan #13. I don’t ask for credit picking Ohio State high since everyone had them as the favorites since pre-season, however, not the same with Michigan. Even though I had Michigan outside the top 10, they were my dark horse pick. Here’s what I wrote about them:

Prediction – Many suspects that Lloyd Carr’s job is in jeopardy after a 7-5 season in 2005 and losing to Ohio State for the 4th time in 5 tries. This will be a crucial year for Carr, and I think he will respond positively by challenging Ohio State for the Big Ten championship. I predict Michigan to lose road games at Notre Dame, Penn State, and Ohio State, but all those are definitely winnable games. Michigan is my dark horse pick for the National Championship since they are much like the 2004 Auburn Tigers coming off of a disappointing season. As you remember, the 2004 Auburn team went from preseason favorites to win the championship to a 7-5 squad at the end of the year. No body really expected much out of them the following year despite having the core of the group back. Head coach Tommy Tuberville’s job was also in limbo after rumors that Louisville head coach Bobby Petrino will take his job. All Auburn did was going 13-0 in 2004. The most obvious similarities between the 2006 Wolverines and the 2004 Tigers is that both has a very good QB, 2 dominating running backs, an All-American caliber corner, and head coaches on the hot seat.

Well, that’s all from me. ENJOY THE GAME!

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