College Football Preview – Part 3/7, PAC 10

PAC 10

At first glance, the Pac 10 looks like a 2-team race with a bunch of mid-major level teams fighting for 3-10. However, upon closer examination, there could be 6 bowl-eligible teams as well as some teams capable of making dramatic turn-arounds. Without a doubt, USC is the Goliath in this conference, having the edge in every unit from head coaches to special teams. Many predicts Cal to have a rebuilding year, but I believe they won't miss a beat on offense despite losing their big 3, but the defense is definitely vulnerable. Arizona State, Oregon, Oregon State, and UCLA makes up the 2nd tier. Each of those teams are 1 upset away from challenging USC and Cal. Arizona is a potential surprise team entering Mike Stoops' 2nd year. I think they could make it to a bowl game this year. Stanford, Washington, and Washington State wraps up the bottom. All 3 teams return many starters, so they are all capable of making some noise this year. Stanford and Washington have 1st year coaches in Walt Harris and Ty Willingham, 2 proven winners in the past. In this day and age, it seems like head coaches achieve great things in the 1st 3 years with a program (see Bob Stoops, Larry Coker, Urban Meyer, and Pete Carroll).

ARIZONA

Offense
The offense will be headlined by senior running back Mike Bell (#9 RB). Bell is a proven runner with 2 decent seasons for the Wildcats. Terry Longbons (#16 RB) is a good recruit who might see some action in his freshman year. Richard Kovalcheck will return as the lone starting quarterback as Kris Heavner leaves. Kovalcheck is only a sophomore and could develop into a good quarterback this season; however, back problems have kept him out of the spring, but I expect him to be ready for the season opener. The WR group was dropping balls left and right last year. Although 3 of the top 5 receivers left, BJ Vickers, a JC transfer, showed flashes of brilliance in the spring. Mike Jefferson and Syndric Steptoe also return with experience as starters. The offensive line won’t be spectacular with only 1 player starting all the games in redshirt freshman Peter Graniello. New comer Adam Hawes, a JUCO transfer, is a good talent who can be impressive as the blindside tackle. Like any coach looking to turn around a program, Mike Stoops brings in several JUCO players who can make an immediate impact, a method he learned from brother Bob Stoops.

Defense
This is the side of the ball that I expect to see the most improvement given that Mike Stoops was Oklahoma’s defensive coordinator before last year. His DC will be brother Mark Stoops. It seems like coordinating defense runs in the blood (Bob was DC for Florida and KState before headcoaching Oklahoma). Let us start with the defensive backs since Mark specializes in DBs plus the fact that all 4 starters return with another talent to back them up in JC transfer Michael Johnson (#4JC DB). CB Antoine Cason is only a sophomore but started all 11 games as a true frosh recording an impressive 70 tackles and 4 INTs. Cason is a potential all-conference player who has the size and speed for the NFL. His counterpart CB Wilrey Fontenot was also a freshman starter from last year looking to build on a solid rookie campaign. The 2 safeties are both seniors in Lamon Means and Darrell Brooks. Johnson might see some time at the strong safety position and might even challenge Means for some starts. On the D-line, 2 starters return in Marcus Smith and Paul Philipp. The two combined for 23 starts last year and will be aided by JC transfer nose tackle Byron Smith and end Copeland Bryan who started 10 games in 2003. The linebackers are very young having the only returning starter be a sophomore in Dane Krogstad. Patrick Howard leaves the MLB position for Ronnie Palmer, a redshirt freshman; however, Spencer Larsen or true frosh Adrian McCovey (#37 LB) might challenge Palmer for the position.

Prediction
I like Arizona’s chance for a turnaround season in 2005. The defense is definitely in the upper half of the Pac10 and will keep the Cats in a lot of their games. The schedule is brutal for the first 5 games (at Utah, Cal, and USC and vs Purdue at home), but if they can muster 2 wins out of the 5, they will have a much easier schedule in October and November.

ARIZONA STATE

Offense
The ASU offense will need sometime to gel, provided senior quarterback Andrew Walter graduated in the offseason. Sam Keller, who had decent numbers in limited action last year, will become the starter. He will have one of the best targets in the country to throw to in senior WR Derek Hagan. Coming off of a season where he had 83 receptions, 1248 yards, and 10 TDs, Hagan is surely an All-American prospect. Other than Hagan, the top 6 in receiving yards return from last year, one of them being star TE Zach Miller (#1 TE) who is only a sophomore. Hakim Hill and Loren Wade will need to be replaced as the RBs, both of whom were injured during parts of 2004. Wade put the ASU program in a cloud of dust when he was charged of murder. He has since been kicked off of the team. The early favorite for the position is Randy Hill, followed by Rudy Burgess, who had 404 yards last year. Burgess became the starter late last year and put up big numbers as a runner and as a pass catcher out of the backfield, but is likely to return to the WR position this year, although using him in a Reggie Bush-type way isn’t out of the question. Regardless of who becomes the starter, the running game won’t likely be much of a factor this year. The offensive line has been young and hurt the last few years. This year, the line returns 3 starters and despite losing C Drew Hodgdon (5th round pick HOU), this unit is the best in 3 years. I don’t expect them to pave the way for more than 4.0 ypc in the running game due to the lack of a RB, but I do expect them to proteck Keller in 2005.

Defense
On the defensive line, Kyle Caldwell (#15 DL) looks to build upon a 7-sack season in 2004. The Sun Devils lost 2 starters and several backups on the DL, but Will Kofe and Shannon Jones comes in as JC transfers and should provide immediate help along with seniors Mike Talbot and DeWayne Hollyfield. DT Jordan Hill also had 7 sacks last year and should improve exponentially provided he is fairly new to the position (recruited as a LB out of high school). The linebacking unit is well off with senior starters Jamar Williams and Dale Robinson. Both Williams and Robinson had over 80 tackles last season. Backing them up is a talented youngster Mark Washington (#31 LB) who could see playing time beside Williams and Robinson if Lamar Baker fails to deliver as an undersized 3rd linebacker. The secondary will miss 1st team Pac10 SS Riccardo Stewart. His shoes will be filled by sophomore Josh Barrett who started in place of Stewart in the four games he missed. However, Barrett will be challenged for playing time by first year JC transfer Zach Catanese and Maurice London (#19JC DB). FS Emmanuel Franklin has good speed and can provide deep coverage. If RJ Oliver can return from injury, he would be the #1 coverage corner for the Sun Devils. Josh Golden is a returning starter who should be solid as the other CB. A new defensive coordinator takes over this year in Bill Miller, who has 27 years of coaching experience including stops at top programs Oklahoma State, Michigan State, Miami (FL), and Florida. His presence will definitely help improve the defense, but another aspect is how quickly will they adapt to his schemes.

Prediction
Last season’s 8-3 was very impressive considering the Sun Devils blew out two non-conference bowl teams early in the season (UTEP and Iowa). However, ASU were blown out twice themselves against Pac10’s top two teams (USC and Cal). This season’s schedule includes LSU, a national title contender, in the second game. As if beating LSU isn’t hard enough, they’ll have to travel to Baton Rouge to do so. Arizona State will miss Cal this year, but will have to play USC and Oregon on back-to-back weekends. If it is any consolation, those games are both at home, where the Sun Devils are undefeated in their last 7 games dating back to the last game of 2003. The season will be a success if the Sun Devils can finish 2nd in the Pac10 and make it to the Holiday Bowl, however, they won’t settle for anything less than 3rd.

CALIFORNIA

Offense
The Golden Bears lose all three of their big weapons on offense in QB Aaron Rodgers, RB JJ Arrington, and WR Geoff McArthur. Many people will consider this a rebuilding season on that reason alone, but don’t be fooled, I think this year’s team might even be better offensively! In 2003, Aaron Rodgers stepped in as the starting quarterback coming from the JUCO ranks. A similar situation is in store for 2005 as highly touted JC QB Joseph Ayoob (#6JC QB) takes over for Rodgers, who was drafted in the 1st round of the NFL draft. Provided with head coach Jeff Tedford’s track record, which he proved that he can turn anyone from JC transfers (Aaron Rodgers) to high school phenoms (Kyle Boller) into productive college QBs, Ayoob should be in good hands. Nathan Longshore (#18 QB) and Kyle Reed (#18 QB) are a pair of good talents out of high school who could be Cal’s future QB. Last year, Arrington rushed for an amazing 2018 yards with a 7.0 average, but what few people realize is that his true frosh backup, Marshawn Lynch (#23 RB), averaged an amazing 8.8 ypc on 71 carries, yielding 645 yards. Part of that can be attributed to the offensive line, but for any freshman to do what Lynch did is just impressive. Backing up Lynch are Jr. Marcus O’Keith (#26 RB) and Sr. Terrell Williams, who averaged 5.3 and 8.4 ypc last year respectively. The receiving corps was hit hard last season by injuries, but still helped Cal to a successful season. There are a lot of new faces this year at WR, but all bring a ton of talent to the table. DeSean Jackson is this year’s #1 receiving recruit who could win a starting job. Lavelle Hawkins (#5 WR) is a heralded LSU transfer who is only a sophomore. Also in the mix are a trio of young speedsters in So. Sam DeSa (4.45 speed), So. Noah Smith (4.29 speed), and rFr. Robert Jordan (4.45 speed). Another sophomore will start at TE in Craig Stevens who is a good blocker. Despite the youth of the receiving corps, they should put up better numbers than the injury-plagued group from last year. Despite all the weapons on offense, the most important and underrated part to both last year’s and this year’s team is the offensive line. The OL only loses 1 starter as the other 4 combined for 48 starts last year! That converted to an amazing 6.1 ypc for the offense and only allowed 25 sacks all year. The scary part is that this line returns practically in tact and might be the best offensive line in the country. They might not have the star power of the USC or Texas lines, but this group can put up numbers with the best in the country. With all that talk, I forgot to introduce the line which is made up of C Marvin Philips (1st team Pac10), RG Aaron Merz, LG Erik Robertson (only non-returning starter), LT Andrew Cameron, and the star of them all RT Ryan O’Callaghan. This line is what allowed Aaron Rodgers to complete 23 consecutive passes against USC and JJ Arrington to rush for over 2000 yards, and they are going to make Joseph Ayoob and Marshawn Lynch look like gold this year.

Defense
The defense suffers even heavier losses than the offense this year, returning only 3 starters from a year ago; however, they won’t have the same caliber of replacements that the offense enjoys. The DL returns only one starter in Brandon Mebane and will have to replace their sack leader Ryan Riddle (14.5 sacks). The replacements consist of talented Matthew Malele (#14 DL), Phillip Mbakogu (#11 DL), and Nu’u Tafisi (#21JC DL), so the question should be when they will mature, not if they will mature. All 3 starting linebackers are gone from 2004. They will be replaced by talented JC linebackers Desmond Bishop (#3JC LB) and Mickey Pimentel (#24JC LB). Bishop moves extremely well from sideline-to-sideline while Pimentel is a good pass rusher on the weak side. The third linebacker is senior Ryan Foltz who is a converted safety. The secondary could be very vulnerable at times last year as seen in the game against Texas Tech. On the year, Cal gave up a whopping 238 passing yards per game. That should improve with both starting corners return this year in Daymeion Hughes and Harrison Smith. Both guys are huge (6-2) for cornerback standards. Donnie McCleskey returns after an injury-plagued season and looks to return to the 102-tackle season he had in 2003. The defense lost a lot, but considering most replacements are talented JUCO players, they bring a certain level of experience and should be a solid group considering there are more overall talent and depth compared to last year.

Prediction
Under Jeff Tedford, California is steadily turning into a powerhouse on the college football scene. Despite garnering attention as a mentor for successful quarterbacks (Joey Harrington, David Carr, Kyle Boller, and Aaron Rodgers), Tedford is also churning out productive running backs in Adimchinobe Echemandu, JJ Arrington, and now Marshawn Lynch. Based on this year’s recruits, it seems like the Cal program is here to stay. For the 2005 season, anything less than 10 wins will be considered a disappointment. The Pac10 will once again be a two-horse race between USC and Cal with the winner of their November 12 game the likely conference champions. One potential upset for Cal will be the road game at Oregon the week before facing USC. As we all know, Oregon’s Autzen Stadium is a hostile place for any visiting team.

OREGON

Offense
The QB shuffle finally ended last year when Jason Fife graduated, giving Kellen Clemens (#7 QB) the starting job all to himself. He struggled at times, but completed 60% of his passes with a 22-10 TD-INT ratio which isn’t bad at all. This year will be Clemen’s last year, and I expect him to live up to the expectations from the day he stepped on campus. Another highly touted prospect, Dennis Dixon (#10 QB) will back him up. Even with the impressive 1164 yard season averaging 5.7 ypc in 2004, senior incumbent Terrence Whitehead might not have the starting RB job at the beginning of the season. He is being pushed by blue chipper true frosh Jonathan Stewart (#1 RB), who chose Oregon over other national powerhouses such as USC, Cal, Tennessee, Ohio State, Nebraska, and Notre Dame. With the success of true frosh Adrian Peterson last season, Oregon won’t hesitate to have Stewart carry the load early on. Head coach Mike Bellotti will be extremely pleased that he will have the 5-10 220-pounder with 4.5 speed for at least 3 seasons. While all the talk is about Stewart, don’t forget about Terrell Jackson (#17 RB) who redshirted last year. A very solid receiving corps returns to Eugene. Led by Demetrius Williams, the WRs return practically everyone including TE Tim Day, who is a tremendous pass catcher and NFL prospect. Day had 8 TD catches last season and averaged 13.1 yards per catch. James Finley (#1JC WR) and Cameron Colvin (#6 WR) will provide size and speed respectively as wide receivers. The offensive line might be the weakest link on the Oregon offense. Not only did the line give up 41 sacks last year, they also lose 3 starters from last year. The replacements will be talented but inexperienced Aaron Klovas (#7 OL) at LT, sophomore Geoff Schwartz at RT, and JC transfer Palauni Ma Sun (#26JC OL) at LG. The three are very inexperienced, but are all big men, averaging 6-6, 340lb per body. If Klovas or Schwartz struggle, another youngster Jacob Hucko (#30 OL), who is a redshirt freshman, will see some action.

Defense
The Oregon defense has an excellent defensive line led by blue-chipper Jr. DT Haloti Ngata (#1 DL) and Devan Long. Ngata is the type of big and strong interior lineman that NFL teams love for stopping the run. Long combined for 18 sacks the previous two years at the end position. Sophomore David Faaeteete (#33 DL) played as a true frosh and will start at DT beside Ngata. And it seems like DT Matt Toeaina will move over to the end position and become a starter. It won’t be Oregon football unless at least 2 of the starting linebackers need to be replaced from the previous year. Top tacklers Jerry Matson and Ramone Reed depart as 2 of the team’s top 3 tacklers from 2004. Since Oregon plays a 4-2-5, that means there is almost no experience at the linebacker position considering the replacements, AJ Tuitele and Brent Haberly, have 2 starts between them. Chris Vincent, the RB transfer from LSU, and Justin Andrews will also see time at LB. Every starter from the secondary returns this year. Aaron Gipson and Jackie Bates are a pair of fine cornerbacks who are as good as any duo in the conference. Bates is only a sophomore who started 6 games as a true frosh. Willie Glasper (#7 DB) was a highly recruited prospect last season and could form a formidable pair at CB with Bates for years to come. Anthony Truck is more of a “tweener”, playing both linebacker and strong safety last year. Justin Phinisee is a good corner as well as a solid safety. Being a 4-2-5 system, there are plenty of chances for Phinisee to get on the field.

Prediction
This team is much better than the 5-7 team from 2004. Other than the OL and LB positions, this is a very good team who will be looking to getting back to the form of the 2001 Ducks when they were 11-1. Although they are not on the same talent level as USC, Oregon will definitely battle for 2nd place in the Pac10 with Cal and ASU. The schedule opens with fairly easy opponents and should lead to a 2-0 start. Many experts pick Oregon to upset USC and their 20+ game winning streak when the Trojans visit Eugene. Cal also visits Autzen Stadium this year, so Oregon has the chance, although slim, to tear down the goal post twice this year. 3 of the 4 conference road teams are against the bottom teams in the conference; therefore, there is no question that scheduling is on the Ducks side. I wouldn’t be surprised if Oregon goes undefeated on the road, yet be only 3-3 at home.

OREGON STATE

Offense
The Beavers lose their all-time leading passer Derek Anderson. The former UCLA Bruin Matt Moore (#19 QB) will get the first shot at QB followed by Ryan Gunderson. While Gunderson served as Anderson’s backup last year, Moore came in from the JC ranks and was impressive during the spring. The leading returning rusher, Yvenson Bernard only had 20 yards on 6 carries last year. Scout team MVP Jimtavis Walker and Bernard are both back and should improve upon last year. After all, you can’t do any worse than 2004 when they finished last in the country in rushing! The receiving corps is the strength of the offense and should help out either Moore or Gunderson dramatically. All three starters return including Mike Hass, the senior leader of the team. Hass, the former walk-on, is a deep threat (23.0 ypc in 2003 and 16.0 ypc in 2004) despite having average speed and also has sound techniques in route-running and pass-catching (44 catches in 2003 and 86 catches in 2004). He will be flanked by returning starters Anthony Wheat-Brown at flanker and Marcel Love in the slot. Overall, the top 4 pass catchers from 2004 returns. Joe Newton (#12 TE) caught 56 passes at the TE position last year and is one of the many talented Pac10 TEs (Dominique Byrd – USC, Marcedes Lewis – UCLA, Tim Day – Oregon, Zach Miller – ASU, and Troy Bienemann – WSU). The offensive line was, without a question, a horrible squad, giving up 37 sacks and only yielding 2.2 ypc on the ground. This year, 3 starters return for a combined 36 starts last year and should improve dramatically.

Defense
The defensive front 7 looks very good while the secondary needs someone to step up. Bill Swancutt had 11.5 sacks last season and will leave large shoes to fill as he was drafted in the 6th round by the Lions. Three returning starters in Joe Lemma, Ben Siegert, and Sir Henry Anderson return. Jeff Van Orsow, Derek Hall, and Anderson will battle for the end position while Alvin Smith looked impressive enough during the spring to lock up the DT position beside Siegert. A solid Beaver linebacking group revolves around MLB Trent Bray, who had 122 tackles last year, and Keith Ellison (#15JC LB). Chaz Scott is the other starter with some starting experience last year filling in for the injured Jonathan Pollard. The secondary only returns one starter, albeit a good one in SS Sabby Piscitelli. Brandon Browner and Aric Williams left as the starting cornerbacks from 2004. It will be hard to replace two all-conference players at such a crucial position, but Oregon State has talent ready to step in with JC transfers Aaron Miller (#8 DB), who signed with Oklahoma out of high school, and Edorian McCullough (#10 DB), who signed with Texas out of high school. Keenan Lewis and Gerard Lawson will be keeping the positions warm while Miller and McCullough get ready.

Prediction
Despite the gut-wrenching OT loss to LSU in the season opener and the sluggish 1-4 start last year, Mike Riley rallied the troops for a 5-1 record in the last 6 games. The Beavers will need the Portland State game to break in their new quarterback, it being Matt Moore or Ryan Gunderson, because the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th games will be a tough stretch against Boise State, Louisville, and Arizona State. Although Oregon State doesn’t have to face USC, their last 6 games include 4 on the road which is tough for anybody not to mention 2 of those road games are against Cal and Oregon. This season will be a success if the Beavers can win 7 games, and for that to happen, the quarterback and cornerback situations need to be solidified early in the season.

STANFORD

Offense
This is an offense as impotent as any in the last few weeks of the season. For the last 5 games, the Cardinal had -8, 83, 37, 1, and 24 yards rushing for the entire team! The passing game also failed to complete 50% of their passes in the last 3 games, combining to go 42 for 108 (38.9%). The offensive line allowed 41 sacks including 10 by Oregon alone and only 2.5 yards per carry. The only bright spot for this year’s offense is that there are 10 returning starters. QB Trent Edwards (#5 QB) was a heralded recruit by former head coach Buddy Teevens. He hasn’t lived up to the high expectations, but new head coach Walt Harris has a proven record in producing quality passing games at Pittsburgh. Much like Edwards, JR Lemon (#20 RB) was also a high recruit who has failed to produce at the college level. He has the rare combination of size (6-1, 225) and speed and showed what he can do when he ran for 96 yards and a TD on only 10 carries in the close game against USC. All the WRs return except for Greg Camarillo. Evan Moore is a 6-7 leaper and former Cardinal basketball player who quit basketball to further concentrate on football. Mark Bradford (#13 WR) was the 1st Cardinal to lead the team in receiving as a true frosh in 2003. Gone is TE Alex Smith, a 3rd round NFL draft pick, but Walt Harris signs prospect Jim Dray (#10 TE) this year. While Dray develops, Matt Traverso (#25 TE), Patrick Danahy, and Michael Horgan could all see playing time. The entire OL returns and combined for 52 starts last year. Although there aren’t any big names there, experience and familiarity with each other speaks volumes when it comes to OL play.

Defense
This defensive line is due to bust out for a big season. Julian Jenkins (#7 DL) leads the unit as a senior while getting plenty of help from Babatude Oshinowo. There are also a trio of prep superstars who comes to Palo Alto in Ekom Udofia (#3 DL), James McGillicuddy (#24 DL), and Matt Kopa (#33 DL). Being a 3-4 defense, the Cardinal LB unit will be crucial this year led by Jon Alston. Kevin Schimmelmann returns from an injury and will rack up plenty tackles for his senior season. Michael Craven (#1 LB), a blue chipper prospect missed most of last year due to injuries. If he can make a comeback, that will give Stanford 3 potential all-conference players at the LB position. After giving up 249 passing yards per game in 2004, the secondary is further diminished with only 1 starter returning. I don’t expect this unit to improve having to play trigger-happy offenses like USC, Cal, Oregon, and Washington State.

Prediction
Tyrone Willingham might be the most famous 1st year Pac10 coach with a chip on his shoulder, but we have another one on hand in Walt Harris. After re-establishing a Pittsburgh program, Harris was all but booted out the door following their BCS bowl appearance last year. It will be tough to recruit and win at Stanford, but it seems like he has already mastered the 1st part of that with a decent 2005 class. Stanford will have plenty of time to tinker with their team having only 2 games in September against weak opponents in Navy and UC Davis. However, Stanford won’t enjoy another bye week for the rest of the year. A 5-0 start isn’t out of the question, but it will be hard to finish the season strong with games at USC, at Oregon State, against Cal, and Notre Dame in November. Provided that There aren’t too much expectation to win right away, I believe Harris has some good pieces to build upon for the future.

UCLA

Offense
UCLA is the prototypical Pac10 team in many people’s minds, which is all offense and no defense. The Bruins had one of the most prolific running machines averaging 185 yards per game on the ground headed by Maurice Drew. In only 8 starts, Drew had over 1000 yards including school record 322 yards against Washington. Manuel White had 764 yards behind Drew. Despite these numbers, UCLA was only able to squeeze out 79 and 17 rushing yards against Pac10’s elite teams Cal and USC respectively. This year, Drew will return, and provided he is healthy the entire season, should be one of the nation’s best backs. Quarterback Drew Olsen returns for his senior year and will be challenged by incoming redshirt freshman Ben Olsen (#1 QB). Ben formerly committed to BYU, but chose UCLA after coming back from a 2-year mission. Drew and Ben are not related. Junior Taylor (#11 WR) returns as the go-to wide receiver. He will be joined by Joe Cowan, Marcus Everett who played last year as a true frosh, Alex Ghebreselassie, and Ryan Graves. However, their most dangerous receiving weapon is TE Marcedes Lewis who turned down the NFL for his senior season. Lewis led the team with 7 touchdown receptions last year and is expected to be decorated by multiple awards at season’s end. The offensive line returns 3 starters including Shannon Tevaga at guard, who started the last 6 games last year as a true frosh. There is a lot of talent on the offense. I look for the passing game to develop more this year, Karl Dorrell’s 3rd season at the helm.

Defense
Now let’s talk about the ugly side, the defense. Last year’s squad gave up 210 rushing yards and 223 passing yards per game. This year, 8 starters return and should improve on those numbers. The defensive line lacks a pass rusher, generating only 20 sacks for the entire year. The fact that all 4 starters departed from the 2003 season contributed to the poor performance. With last year’s experience, I expect ends Brigham Harwell and Kyle Morgan and tackles Kevin Brown and Kenneth Lombard to be more assertive this year. The linebackers are extremely talented and experienced. Wesley Walker, Spencer Havner (#39 LB), and Justin London (#16 LB) are all senior returning starters. Havner is the gem of the group after recording 125 tackles and 2 INTs in 2004. Other than the trio, their backups are composed of sophomores with little experience. The secondary is weak at both cornerback positions, Marcus Cassel will start on one side while Rodney Van and Trey Brown battle for the other position. Regardless of who starts, this will be a weak unit, especially when the line has trouble getting to the quarterback. The only person saving this unit is Sr. SS Jarrad Page (#19 DB) with 79 tackles last year. Chris Horton is at FS with highly touted Dennis Keyes (#17 DB) backing him up. This year’s Bruin defense has a good chance of improving provided the tremendous linebackers they have, but the key to improvement is the D-line. It will be up to them to provide QB pressure to support the passing D and prevent opposing offensive linemen from latch onto the linebackers for the rushing D.

Prediction
UCLA needs improvement on defense, while maintaining the fire power on offense. The schedule will be difficult with non-conference opponent Oklahoma and 3 of the last 4 games on the road. Finishing the season on a good note has been a tough task for Dorrell’s Bruins after going 0-4 and 2-4 to finish the 2003 and 2004 regular seasons respectively. This year could be no different and might end up costing Dorrell’s job.

USC

Offense
Wow, where do we begin? Should we start with the absurd amount of talent on the team or should we focus on how the Trojans are going to replace a few of their coaches? Let’s begin with one of the most shocking decisions in college football last year when Heisman Trophy winner Matt Leinart decided to return for his senior season. Leinart, unlike Jason White, was considered to be the #1 pick in the NFL draft if he leaves school, but returned for one last year. I was definitely shocked as a Trojan alumnus and fan. Leinart comes back with nothing more to prove on the gridiron. Despite stronger support from the rest of the offense, offensive coordinator and close mentor Norm Chow is gone. I expect Leinart to have a drop-off in productions due to those reasons. In fact, I wanted Leinart to leave so he can capitalize on his Orange Bowl performance and be making Alex Smith-type money in the NFL. Another reason is so his backup John David Booty (#1 QB), who would start for any other program in America, and Rocky Hinds gets to become the next Trojan great. Since Leinart is back, Booty will be the backup while Hinds elected to transfer. Another hot recruit, Mark Sanchez (#2 QB), comes in this year at QB and likely will red shirt. Both Reggie Bush (#5 RB) and LenDale White (#7 RB) return from last year’s running back corps. White has eligibility problems and might miss part or all of 2005, but Bush is more than capable to do it all by himself. Desmond Reed and Chauncey Washington are both explosive runners who would start for anybody but USC. Last year’s receiving corps was the weak link in the USC offense after both starters, Mike Williams and Keary Colbert, were gone. After breaking his leg, Steve Smith (#3 WR) did a great job during the 2nd half. True freshman Dwayne Jarrett (#4 WR) came out of nowhere last year to lead the team in receptions, yards, and touchdowns. The two will be backed up by Whitney Lewis (#2 WR) who was supposed to be the replacement for Colbert last year. Recruit Patrick Turner (#3 WR) could be this year’s Mike Williams and Dwayne Jarrett, but I would rather red shirt him with the loaded WR position. I was very high on true frosh WR Fred Davis last year, but he was converted to TE, where Dominique Byrd (#4 TE) will man. Byrd’s ability to make acrobatic catches makes him a dangerous down-the-field target. The offensive line returns every starter from last year plus Winston Justice, who was a starter in 2003, but missed last year due to suspension. Fred Matua (#12 OL) was a freshman All American at guard while Jeff Byers (#1 OL) started 4 games at LG last year despite being recruited as a center. Sam Baker (#15 OL) replaced NFL draft pick Jacob Rogers at LT last year as a redshirt freshman. He did a marvelous job by being selected to 2nd team PAC 10. The RT position was filled by Taitusi Lutui (606, 370) last year after Justice was suspended. Justice’s return means that Lutui will be backing him up, but don’t expect Lutui to sit on the bench all year. The Trojans don’t have to replace much on offense since everyone returned, but OC Norm Chow departed for the NFL. Leinart was obviously not happy with Chow’s decision as he flirted with entering the supplementary draft, but was persuaded to return in the end. This year’s OC position will be shared by TE coach Lane Kiffin and QB coach Steve Sarkisian. Sarkisian is Chow’s protégé, having played and coached under Chow.

Defense
Unlike the offense, USC’s defense suffered considerable loss during the off season. Of the 7 leading tacklers from 2004, only 2 return (Darnell Bing and Dallas Sartz). Defensive leaders Shaun Cody (#1 DL), Mike Patterson, Lofa Tatupu, and Matt Grootegoed are all gone. It is hard to replace 2 All-Americans on the DL in Cody and Patterson, but I really believe Frostee Rucker and Lawrence Jackson (#6 DL) will more than hold their own this season. Sedrick Ellis (#8 DL), Jeff Schweiger (#3 DL), Chris Barrett (#10 DL) and this year’s recruits (Walker Lee Ashley, Kyle Moore, and Averell Spicer) will get their chance to shine as most of these guys have All-American abilities. The DL will be a lot more solid if Manuel Wright would have come back, but instead, Wright was drafted in the supplemental draft by the Miami Dolphins. Wright is a physical specimen who has a very quick 1st step. The linebacking crew lost 2 key members in Grootegoed and Tatupu, but could even be better this year. Pete Carroll’s recruiting abilities over the past few years allow USC to stock up in all areas including linebackers. Dallas Sartz is a returning senior starter. He will be joined by highly-recruited Keith Rivers (#2 LB) and JC transfer Ryan Powdrell (#6JC LB). I was very high on Rivers from the moment he stepped on campus, but he didn’t get much playing time last year. There is no doubt in my mind that he will be a good one on the weak side. Another talented prospect Thomas Williams (#8 LB) will be lurking for playing time at the outside linebacker positions. Powdrell is a talented senior with no experience, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he shares time with younger players such as true frosh Rey Maualuga (#1 LB) and junior Oscar Lua. Maualuga is a tackling machine and this year’s best prospect at linebacker out of high school. Other than Maualuga, Brian Cushing (#5 LB), Luthur Brown (#6 LB), and Kaluka Maiava are all talented true frosh who will be impact players in the future. The defensive backfield provides experienced safeties, but the cornerbacks could be vulnerable. Hard hitting Darnell Bing, who wears the proud retired #20 of USC athletic director and former Heisman winner Mike Garrett, will be everyone’s All-American. Scott Ware (#1JC DB) will try to stay healthy replacing Jason Leach at the FS position. Part of the problems for USC cornerbacks is the dismissal of Eric Wright. He will likely be replaced by youngster Terrell Thomas, who has good speed and size. Justin Wyatt will be the other CB returning for his senior season. Some true frosh might be able to step in immediately; they are Will Harris (#21 DB), Kevin Thomas (#23 DB), and Cary Harris (#25 DB). Count on identical twins Brandon and Ryan Ting to get at least a few tackles each this season as safeties or special teamers. Hey, I gotta show some love to my fellow Asians. Like the offense, the defense also loses a valuable coach in DL coach Ed Orgeron who helped cultivate what was nicknamed “The Wild Bunch II”, consisting of Kenechi Udeze, Omar Nazel, Shaun Cody, and Mike Patterson, 3 of whom were 1st or 2nd round NFL draft picks. Despite the loss, the defense should be fine since head coach Pete Carroll is the mastermind of the Trojan defense.

Prediction
USC will be the unanimous pre-season #1 going into 2005. Only 2 teams have ever gone wire-to-wire as national champs, the 1999 Florida State Seminoles and last year’s USC Trojans. They have an even scarier offense this year, but will be offset by the loss of Norm Chow and a weaker defense. Looking at the schedule, there really is no one who can challenge SC. The game at Cal will be big, but Cal will be dealing with its own player-replacement problems with departed QB Aaron Rodgers, RB JJ Arrington, WR Geoff McArthur, and a defense that lost its top 6 tacklers. 5 of the 1st 7 games will be on the road, which might lead to an eventual upset. I don’t like the road game against Hawaii to kick off the season since the players will tend to go on vacation rather than take care of business; however, they do have a bye week after that trip to get their minds back to football. Arkansas visiting Memorial Coliseum will not be just another spanking (just ask the 2003 Texas Longhorns about that!). The most likely upset will be against Oregon or Arizona State. Both offenses are capable in challenging a USC defense looking to replace Cody, Patterson, Tatupu, and Grootegoed. The games will be that much tougher being on the road. After a home game against the much improved Arizona Wildcats, the Trojans have two straight road games against Notre Dame and Washington. The Trojans must also not over look Stanford before their showdown for the PAC 10 title against Cal. Fresno State is a good mid-major team that might surprise a Trojan team that comes off of the big game against Cal. And of course, there is always the rivalry game against UCLA. Don’t forget UCLA only lost by 5 points last year. Maybe I am over-analyzing the schedule, but I think there are potential landmines all over it. However, if the defense led by Pete Carroll can get into high gear early, there isn’t a schedule hard enough for these Trojans. Better make room in Heritage Hall, since there will be a throng of hardware coming in after this season.

WASHINGTON

Offense
Last year was a nightmare season for the Huskies. After being a dominating presence in the college football landscape for much of the 80s and 90s, Washington fell to a 1-10 record in 2004 and went winless in Pac10 play. No one on the offense rushed for more than 800 yards, pass for more than 1500 yards, or caught over 500 yards on the season. Kenny James led the team with only 5 touchdowns while QB Casey Paus had an absurd TD-INT ratio of 5-17. Last year saw 3 QBs in action (Paus, Carl Bonnell, and Isaiah Stanback), all of whom returns this year. Isaiah Stanback (#11 QB) is a good runner while the other two are pocket QBs. Former Oregon QB Johnny DuRocher (#13 QB) will also be in the mix as he comes in from the JUCO ranks. I expect either Paus or DuRocher to get the starting job, which means Stanback might bring his 4.4 speed to WR. Kenny James (#23 RB) led the team in rushing last year while Chris Singleton was injured. This year, I expect James to start, but both Singleton and Shelton Sampson will get carries. Also keep an eye on true frosh JR Hasty (#26 RB). A pair of freshmen saw time at WR last year and will be starters this year. Corey Williams and Craig Chambers both have the speed and size to make big plays. Chambers was amazing during the last 4 games, gathering 488 yards with a 21.5 average despite the poor QB play. The entire offensive line returns, all of whom are juniors or seniors. If not for the talent, this unit should improve based on experience and continuity.

Defense
This defense returns the top 6 tacklers from 2004. The Huskies surprisingly led the conference in passing yardage defense, only yielding 186 passing yards per game, but I guess when your opponents rush for 184 yards per game, they won’t need to pass the ball. The starting front 7 returns, including Manase Hopoi (2nd Team Pac10) at DT, Evan Benjamin, and Joe Lobendahn at LB. Hopoi (on the Lombardi watch list) had 9 sacks last year and will receive help from 2nd year player Greyson Gunheim, senior Mike Mapuolesega (#9JC DL), and Brandon Ala. Benjamin and Lobendahn enter their senior season after having 100 tackles each in 2004. Scott White had 83 tackles as the 3rd LB. This should be one of the best LB units in the Pac10. Roy Lewis and Matt Fountaine come in to replace a pair of good CBs in Sam Cunningham and Derrick Johnson. The Safeties combined for 20 starts last year and will be solid again. FS Dashon Goldson (#9JC DB) is a good cover guy while SS CJ Wallace provides ample run support.

Prediction
Tyrone Willingham comes into town after a wrongful dismissal by Notre Dame. The 1-10 Huskies looked dreadful last year on the field, but could be a vastly better team this year due to Willingham and the throng of returning players. 10 starters return on offense with the departing player being a TE. 9 starters return on defense including a very solid front 7. The biggest question mark is who will start at QB and will he improve upon the combined 8-24 TD-INT ratio from last year’s QBs. If the QB situation is settled, being a Willingham-believer, I think the Huskies might make a push for a bowl game. That might sound like a huge task, but if Willingham can lead that Notre Dame team to a 10-2 record in 2002, including victories over Maryland, Purdue, Michigan, Michigan State, Pittsburgh, and Florida State, then surely he can beat the likes of Air Force, Idaho, Notre Dame, Oregon State, Arizona, and Washington State. Not only will the players’ experience come through for the Huskies this year, so will Willingham’s experience in the Pac10 (He coached at Stanford before going to Notre Dame, remember?). The Huskies gets both Cal and USC at home this year, but I believe the most important game will be when Notre Dame comes into town in late September.

WASHINGTON STATE

Offense
Bill Doba will enjoy an offensive unit that returns 9 starters from last year, including all the position players. However, the only 2 losses are both all-conference offensive linemen. Josh Swogger is back as the starter after suffering an injury plagued season where he split time with redshirt freshman Alex Brink. Swogger is more of a pro-type quarter back having a 6-5, 238 frame much like former WSU quarterbacks Matt Kegel, Ryan Leaf, and Drew Bledsoe. Brink is more along the lines of Jason Gesser at 6-2, 208. At running back is Jerome Harrison (#21JC RB) who led the team in rushing with 900 yards last year including a 247 yard effort against UCLA late in the season. Behind Harrison are some very young and inexperienced backs, so it will be crucial for Harrison to stay healthy. The top 6 pass catchers from last year return, including starters Michael Bumpus (#8 WR), Jason Hill, and Chris Jordan. Bumpus enters his 2nd year and is expected to have a big season as WR and punt returner. TE Troy Bienemann is a great player looking to get back to his 2003 form when he was 2nd team Pac10. He will be overlooked in a conference where the TE position is stacked with talent. An experienced center returns, but the rest of the line are either breaking in new starters or having old starters at new positions. Bobby byrd was a good redshirt freshman last year, but will move to LT from LG. Norvell Holmes started at RG last year and will move to LG. Riley Fitt-Chappell and Charles Harris will get 1st stabs at the RG and RT positions respectively.

Defense
Doba was an excellent defensive coordinator at WSU before becoming the head coach in 2003. His signature is a tenacious DL that put up huge sack numbers (55 in 2002 and 50 in 2003). Last year, the Cougars only had 32 sacks, but I expect that to increase with 3 returning starters on the DL. Mkristo Bruce and Adam Braidwood are a pair of pass rushers who could have big years while Aaron Johnson is a rising star in the middle against the run. Will Derting returns as the all-conference linebacker and leader of the defense. He will be joined by Scott Davis who had 86 tackles in 2004. There aren’t a lot of depth pass the starters, and like the RB position, could be a problem if injury strikes. Alex Teems will be solid as one of the cornerbacks, but the rest of the secondary is extremely green. JC transfer Tyron Brackenridge will be counted on as the other corner while Omowale Dada battles him for the position. Many will be given the shot at the safety positions including DeWayne Patterson, Husain Abdullah, Eric Frampton, and Dada.

Prediction
The sophomore slump for Bill Doba might not be a fluke, especially with depth-issues and inexperience on the defense. Washington State gets a much needed easy early schedule as they face Idaho, Nevada, and Grambling State. The Cougs should be able to develop some depth and season the secondary in these games before taking on their Pac10 slate. The first 3 conference games are all winnable games before back-to-back road nightmares to Cal and USC. I don’t expect these 2 games to make or break WSU’s season since Cal and USC are head-and-shoulders above everyone else in the Pac10 (well, maybe not Cal). The key to the season are the 3 games that immediately follow those 2 games to end the season when they face Arizona State and Oregon at home, plus the rivalry game against Washington. Both ASU and Oregon are expected to finish in the top 4 in conference play, so to beat them would be huge for WSU. The Apple Cup will be huge for bragging rights and recruiting in the state of Washington.