February 26, 2004

The Rebound Efficiency Theory

Most basketball statistic analysts would measure a team’s rebounding ability by rebound margins, which is the average rebounds per game subtracted by opponent average rebounds per game. Although effective to some point, I believe there is a better way to gauge such statistics. I believe in the Rebound Efficiency. Using the number of rebounds divided by the rebound opportunity, I have devised a more accurate way of analyzing team rebounding comparisons. The rebound opportunity is accumulated by adding the number of missed field goals by the team and its opponents. Dividing the total rebounds by this number will give a value between 0 and 1. This method of analyzing team rebounding can be utilized in other ways to figure out offensive and defensive rebounding efficiencies. I believe this is superior to rebounding margins since it measures rebounding efficiency independent of field goal percentage (as we know, teams tend to get more rebounds when missing many shots). Let’s see the top NBA rebounding teams using the two different approaches as of February 25, 2004. Rebound Margins:


Team Reb Opp Reb Reb Margin

1 Utah 40.881 36.356 4.525
2 Cleveland 46.534 42.431 4.103
3 San Antonio 45.702 42.246 3.456
4 Houston 43.193 39.807 3.386
5 L.A. Clippers 44.357 41.000 3.357
6 Detroit 43.400 41.067 2.333
7 Portland 41.860 39.737 2.123
8 Indiana 42.105 40.456 1.649
9 Dallas 45.500 44.250 1.250
10 Minnesota 42.034 41.259 0.775
11 Miami 41.224 40.483 0.741
12 New York 42.305 41.661 0.644
13 New Orleans 42.667 42.632 0.035

Rebound Efficiency:


Opp Opp Opp Reb
Team Fg Fg Att Fg Fg Att Reb Reb Opportunity Reb Eff

1 San Antonio 1945 4501 1804 4472 2605 2408 5224 0.4987
2 Utah 1947 4432 1866 4267 2412 2145 4886 0.4937
3 Cleveland 2042 4788 2082 4817 2699 2461 5481 0.4924
4 L.A. Clippers 1948 4535 2100 4577 2484 2296 5064 0.4905
5 Dallas 2216 4924 2125 4663 2548 2478 5246 0.4857
6 Houston 1874 4286 1778 4467 2462 2269 5101 0.4827
7 Indiana 1900 4425 1836 4288 2400 2306 4977 0.4822
8 Detroit 1984 4650 1987 4727 2604 2464 5406 0.4817
9 Portland 2045 4535 2066 4552 2386 2265 4976 0.4795
10 Miami 1898 4487 1900 4360 2391 2348 5049 0.4736
11 New York 2058 4647 2009 4724 2496 2458 5304 0.4706
12 Minnesota 2178 4647 1955 4682 2438 2393 5196 0.4692
13 New Orleans 1958 4639 1982 4500 2432 2430 5199 0.4678

Rebound efficiency compared to opponent rebound efficiency:


Opp
Team Reb Eff Reb Eff Ratio*

1 Utah 0.4937 0.4390 1.1245
2 Cleveland 0.4924 0.4490 1.0967
3 Houston 0.4827 0.4448 1.0851
4 L.A. Clippers 0.4905 0.4534 1.0819
5 San Antonio 0.4987 0.4609 1.0818
6 Detroit 0.4817 0.4558 1.0568
7 Portland 0.4795 0.4552 1.0534
8 Indiana 0.4822 0.4633 1.0408
9 Dallas 0.4857 0.4724 1.0282
10 Minnesota 0.4692 0.4605 1.0188
11 Miami 0.4736 0.4650 1.0183
12 New York 0.4706 0.4634 1.0155
13 New Orleans 0.4678 0.4674 1.0008

*Ratio=Reb Eff divided by Opp Reb Eff

February 23, 2004

Field of 65



As February comes to an end, we sport fans has only one thing on mind, March Madness, baby! I will present you with my list of the 65 teams that will make it to the Big Dance, but before that, I’ll take a look at who’s in and who’s on the bubble.

Locked Teams (56 teams)



Single-team Conferences (22 teams) – These are the conferences who will be represented by one team, the conference champion. You never know what could happen in conference tournaments. Don’t forget how Prairie View squeezed into the NCAA Tournament despite a losing record by winning its conference championship. No question, the championships of mid-major conferences are much more important than the major conferences since only one team will come out of those conferences. Here is my prediction of the champions of one-team conference.




AMERICA EAST Boston

ATLANTIC SUN Belmont

BIG SKY Eastern Washington

BIG SOUTH Liberty

BIG WEST Utah St.

COLONIAL ATHLETIC Drexel

HORIZON Illinois (Chicago)

IVY Princeton

MAAC Manhattan

MID CONTINENT IUPUI

MAC Kent St.

MEAC Coppin St.

MISSOURI VALLEY So. Illinois

NORTHEAST Monmouth

OHIO VALLEY Austin Peay

PATRIOT Lehigh

SOUTHERN East Tenn. St.

SOUTHLAND Sam Houston St.

SOUTHWESTERN ATHLETIC Miss. Valley St.

SUN BELT Louisiana-Lafayette

WCC Gonzaga

WAC Rice



Multi-team Conferences (34 teams)– These are conferences who will send multiple teams to the NCAA championships. Most are major conferences, but a few mid-majors will send two teams.




A-10 St. Joseph’s, Dayton

ACC Duke, Georgia Tech, NC St., UNC, Wake Forest

BIG 12 Oklahoma St., Texas, Kansas, Texas Tech

BIG EAST Uconn, Pittsburgh, Providence, Seton Hall, Syracuse

BIG TEN Michigan St., Illinois, Wisconsin

CONFERENCE USA Memphis, Cincinnati, Charlotte, Louisville, UAB

MOUNTAIN WEST Air Force, Utah, BYU

PAC 10 Stanford, Arizona

SEC Miss. St., Kentucky, South Carolina, LSU, Vanderbilt



Bubble Teams (9 spots)


(team, RPI ranking, record)

Florida, 17, 15-8 – Once the number one team in America is on the bubble now. However, with the high RPI ranking and strong strength of schedule (4th), Florida should be in the tournament.

Boston College, 22, 18-8 – BC beat Seton Hall twice, NC State, Notre Dame, and Rutgers and can boast about their top 25 RPI and 10th hardest schedule in the nation. They were also tied with Pittsburgh and led Connecticut by one at half time before losing both games. Enough said.

Oklahoma, 35, 16-7 – All of OU’s conference wins came against bottom-feeders with the exception of Texas Tech. At 6-6 in the Big 12, I believe OU needs to win their remaining four games for them to qualify for the NCAA Tournament.

Rutgers, 39, 15-9 – The only impressive win for the Scarlet Knights is an 11-point victory over Notre Dame. However, they did beat Providence by one and lost to Connecticut and Syracuse by a combined three points. But then again, they can be really bad at times, losing to UTEP by 26, Seton Hall by 27, and Boston College by 32.

Florida St., 41, 18-9 – The Seminoles have four wins against top 25 opponents including wins against Wake Forest, North Carolina, and Georgia Tech, all bound for the NCAA tournament. However, they are only 6-7 in the ACC and have three extremely tough games left at Wake, vs. Duke, and at Georgia Tech. If FSU can win one of the three and bring their record to 19-11, they stand a good chance of being selected.

Richmond, 44, 16-10 – 23rd in strength of schedule, the Spiders beat Kansas and Colorado out side of the A-10, not to mention 8-5 within the conference.

Missouri, 46, 13-10 – The Tigers struggled early in the season, but are on a four game winning streak now. Their remaining schedule is a head ache with three top 25 teams. If they finish strong, expect them in.

Western Michigan, 47, 20-3 – The win against College of Charleston might be enough to secure an at-large bid for the Broncos.

Michigan, 50, 15-8 – The win versus Wisconsin over the weekends is huge. If Michigan does well in the Big Ten tournament, they could be in.

Xavier, 53, 16-9 – Despite the struggles of star Romain Sato, XU managed to win six straight including victories over Richmond and Dayton.

Colorado, 54, 15-8 – Colorado will be in if they can win three of their remaining four games.

Notre Dame, 55, 13-10 – The Irish has to beat Providence to be considered for the tournament. The three game win streak against UConn, Seton Hall, and Syracuse was impressive, but Notre Dame had a three-game losing streak twice during the season.

Hawaii, 58, 17-7 – The “Rainbow” Warriors are sliding badly, losing three of the last four, but there are still five games left against formidable opponents.

DePaul, 61, 15-8 – If they can beat Louisville or Cincinnati, they are in. In January, DePaul lost to Cincy by 25.

George Washington, 63, 16-8 – GW is on a roll. Upcoming games against Richmond and Xavier will tell all.

St. Louis, 65, 14-9 – Just as SLU seemed to be out of it by losing four straight, they came back with a three game winning streak. They will need to keep it up against Cincinnati and Louisville.

Creighton, 67, 19-5 – The twelve game winning streak to begin the season including a win against Nebraska is behind the Bluejays. Now it’s all about the showdown against Southern Illinois on Tuesday, February 24!

Troy St., 70, 19-5 – Troy State is leading the Atlantic Sun Conference so maybe they will get the automatic bid in the end.

Iowa, 73, 14-9 – Only thing that hurts the Buckeyes is their strength of schedule (75).

Central Florida, 85, 20-5 – The Golden Knights have a good record but are jammed in the same conference as Troy State and Belmont.

Out of the bubble teams, here are the nine teams who I think will eventually make it to the NCAA Tournaments: Florida, Boston College, Oklahoma, Florida St. Richmond, Western Michigan, Xavier, Colorado, and St. Louis.

February 14, 2004

Most Undeserving Award Winners



10) Steve Carlton – Cy Young 1982, Philadelphia Phillies
During Carlton’s magnificent career which included four Cy Young Awards, the one in 1982 might have been the least deserving. Carlton led the National League in complete games, shutouts, innings pitched, strikeouts, and wins, but he also became the only NL Cy Young winner with 10+ losses and a 3.00+ era.



YEAR G GS CG SH IP H ER BB SO W L SV ERA


1982 38 38 19 6 295.2 253 102 86 286 23 11 0 3.11



9) Willie McCovey – ROY 1959, San Francisco Giants
McCovey had an illustrious career as a San Francisco Giant, but his rookie season was far sub-par from what he is capable of doing. McCovey barely qualified for the award with 192 at-bats (150 minimum). McCovey had 13 homeruns and 32 RBI in his first season, but for a career that includes 521 homeruns and 1555 RBI, which ranks 14th and 33rd of all time respectively, those first year numbers look abysmal. It is hard to imagine anyone winning the Rookie of the Year award now with those numbers.

McCovey’s Rookie Statistics



YEAR G AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG


1959 52 192 68 9 5 13 32 38 22 35 2 .354 .429 .656



8) Karl Malone – NBA MVP 1997, Utah Jazz
Michael Jordan should have won the award. For the 1996-1997 season, Jordan played more minutes, had more points, shot better from the free throw line, had more 3-pointers, more steals and less turnovers than Malone. The Bulls also had a better team record than the Jazz. Despite all this, I guess the voters are just too reluctant in re-crowning the 4-time MVP and went with the new face in Malone.

The 1996-1997 Season Statistics:



G Min Pts PPG FGM FGA FGP FTM FTA FTP 3PM 3PA 3PP REB RPG AST APG STL BLK TO


Malone 82 2998 2249 27.4 864 1571 .550 521 690 .755 0 13 .000 809 9.9 368 4.5 113 48 233

Jordan 82 3106 2431 29.6 920 1892 .486 480 576 .833 111 297 .374 482 5.9 352 4.3 140 44 166



7) Tim Duncan – NBA MVP 2002, San Antonio Spurs
The rightful choice for MVP should have been Jason Kidd, who made a miraculous turnaround of the New Jersey Nets' franchise in his first season with them. I have never been more shocked when the MVP award winner was announced! While Kidd led the Nets to a 26 game improvement almost single handedly, Duncan had the help of David Robinson in securing the Midwest crown.

Although lacking in scoring compared to Duncan, Kidd was the floor leader who controlled the tempo of the games. Despite handling the ball more, Kidd only had 23 more turnovers than Duncan. Kidd was also the leading assist-man in the league and the top rebounding guard in the NBA.

The 2001-2002 Season Statistics:



G Min Pts PPG FGM FGA FGP FTM FTA FTP 3PM 3PA 3PP REB RPG AST APG STL BLK TO


Duncan 82 3329 2089 25.5 764 1504 .508 560 701 .799 1 10 .100 1042 12.7 307 3.7 61 203 263

Kidd 82 3059 1208 14.7 445 1138 .391 201 247 .814 117 364 .321 595 7.3 808 9.9 175 20 286



6) Jerome Walton – ROY 1989, Chicago Cubs
Walton had a short big leagues career. After winning the Rookie of the Year in 1989, Walton’s numbers started to decline. Walton didn’t hit for great power, and didn’t have blinding speed, but his five homeruns, 64 runs, and 24 stolen bases were enough to secure him the award.

Walton’s Rookie Statistics



YEAR G AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG


1989 116 475 139 23 3 5 64 46 27 77 24 .293 .335 .385



5) Chris Carrawell – Consensus First Team All-American 2000, Duke Blue Devils
Johnny Dawkins, Danny Ferry, Christian Laettner, Bobby Hurley, Grant Hill, Elton Brand, Shane Battier, Jason Williams, and Chris Carrawell? Hmmm, which name doesn’t seem to belong here? Following great names is never easy for an athlete, but it proved beneficial in Carrawell’s case. Hey if you led Duke in scoring, you must be a consensus All-American right?

4) The Frances Pomeroy Naismith Award
This award is given to the best 6-foot and under college player. Past winners include future NBA stars such as Tim Hardaway, Tyrone “Mugsy” Bogues, Tyus Edney, and Earl Boykins, but come on, an award based on one’s physical dimensions? You don’t see an award for best white baskeball player, that would be reverse racism, so why should there be a 6-foot under award? Although some people see this award as a symbol of hope for the little guys, I think it’s just plain stupid. If such an award exists, then there should be an award for the best player less than 150 pounds, best left-handed player, best player born outside of the United States, best player with impared vision....the list goes on-and-on.

3) Brent Barry – Slam Dunk Champion 1996, LA Clippers
Barry won the 1996 Slam Dunk contest as a rookie with the “free throw-line dunk”. Although he did the dunk in his warm-ups, the free-throw dunk is the most overrated dunk in my opinion. Any long jumper could do the same. It belongs in the Summer Olympic Games, not the hardwood. I think the NBA was pressured into awarding the Slam Dunk crown to a white person to avoid criticism.


2) Mark Moseley – NFL MVP (AP, “The Sporting News”) 1982, Washington Redskins
How many people heard of the name of Mark Moseley? If you don’t know who he is, Moseley was a teammate of Joe Theismann, who won the MVP from Maxwell’s Club in 1982 and the MVP from Pro Football Writers Association of America, AP, and Newspaper Enterprise Association in 1983. John Riggins, the Hall of Fame running back also played with Moseley and won the Maxwell’s Club MVP in 1983. You must be thinking, “Moseley must have had a huge year in 1982 to outshine two Hall of Famers!”, right? What position did he play and what were his stats?

Kicker, 20/21 field goals made, 16/19 PATs, for a combined of 76 measly points. You can argue that these stats are from an abridged 1982 strike-shortened season (9 games played), and you can argue that the 95.2% in field goals is the best mark for a kicker. But in the end, it all comes down to one reality: he’s a kicker!

1) Charles Woodson – Heisman Trophy 1997, Michigan Wolverines
The 1997 Heisman Trophy voting represented everything that the Heisman should not have been, a junior over a senior, a one-year-wonder over a four-year-starter, a defensive back player over a quarterback. Woodson did have a good year with seven interceptions, but Manning was literally a living legend in Big Orange Country. By giving the Heisman to Woodson instead of Manning, the NCAA discouraged all underclassmen from returning for their senior season and passing up the NFL.

The only good thing out of the 1997 Heisman voting is that Manning was spared from the disappointments caused by the list of Heisman-winning quarterbacks in the NFL. Manning went on to win the NFL MVP in 2003 while Woodson was best known for his locker room rampage about head coach Bill Callahan.

Honorable Mention:
Any NCAA football Consensus All-American from an Ivy League School. Yale, Harvard, and Princeton ranks one, three, and six respectively, in the number of consensus All-Americans list of all time, in front of traditional powerhouses like USC, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Texas, and Tennessee. Yet, out of the 254 All-Americans, only 12 were from 1925 or later. The last Ivy League consensus All-American was Stas Maliszewski from Princeton in 1965.

Harvard had at least one consensus All-American from 1889-1916, Yale can say the same thing with the exception of 1915. In that same span, Yale had at least three consensus All-Americans in 19 of the 28 seasons, including having seven All-Americans twice in the same season (1900, 1902). Harvard had a record of eight All-Americans in 1901.

A list of all time All-Americans by school.



School Selections Players


1. Yale 100 69

2. Notre Dame 94 78

3. Harvard 89 59

4. Michigan 68 56

5. Ohio State 68 53

6. Princeton 65 49

7. USC 63 56

8. Oklahoma 59 49

9. Nebraska 52 43

10. Pittsburgh 48 41


February 10, 2004

Top Ten Best and Worst Dressed Coaches



Coaches are as flashy as players, sometimes even more flashy. But then there are the deadbeat guys who patrol the sidelines, looking like bums of the street rather land leaders of a group of super-athletes. Here are the best and worst dressed coaches.

Slick Ricks



5) Steve Lavin (UCLA basketball) – Lavin might possibly be the Westwood wizard with the most jizz … in his hair, that is. Lavin’s hair is notoriously known for it’s There’s Something About Mary-ish hold. Too bad it isn’t strong enough for him to hold on to his job despite recruiting top prep-stars in the Los Angeles area.

4) Quinn Snyder (Missouri basketball) – This sorority-favorite coach is known for his golden locks. His hair rubbed off on player Wesley Stokes who is also known more for his hair than his game.

3) Rick Pitino (Louisville Basketball) – The Italian Stallion of college basketball is one of the best coaches in the NCAA. He’s probably so in-love with himself that he made a clone of himself and named him Billy Donovan. Come on, both are great coaches and both have great hair! If he ever gets tired of coaching, there already is a leading role reserved for him on Godfather, Part IV. Wouldn’t Pitino make a great Don Corleone?

2) Jimmy Johnson (Dallas Cowboys) – This successful coach of the Cowboys’ back-to-back championship teams in the mid 90s looks like the most friendly guy in the world. Don’t mess with the hair though, or he might just drop kick your ass. In Johnson’s entire coaching and broadcasting career, I have never seen his hair move one bit. If it weren’t for Charles Haley who messed up Johnson’s hair in celebration after their Superbowl win, I would have thought they are made of steel.

1) Pat Riley (Los Angeles Lakers, New York Knicks, Miami Heat) – Riley is more than a Hall of Fame coach, he’s got glamour to go with it. You can’t blame the coach for his Armani suits and his oily, combed-back hair, after all, you can’t just show up when you coach in Los Angeles, New York, or Miami. You have to show up with style.

Street Bums



5) Jeff Van Gundy (Houston Rockets) – This defensive-loving, droopy-looking, hair-lacking, player-backing basketball coach evolved into one of my favorites. He’s so down with the players that once in a playoff game, he grabbed Alonzo Mourning’s leg while Zo duked it out with Larry Johnson. Out of all the people who loved the incident, the mop-boys had to be the happiest since they didn’t have to mop anything after Zo mopped the hardwood with Van Gundy’s limp body on his leg.

4) Bill Belichick (New England Patriots) - Simply know as a ball-coach, Belichick is starting his own dynasty with the blue-collared Patriots of New England. His unattractive clothing, stern emotions, and monotone interviews make him an all-time least favorite among the media reporters.

3) Bum Phillips (Houston Oilers) - The well-liked hometown coach of the oilers has to be on the list with a name like Bum. Not only is the name bum-ish, the buzz-cut hair, beer belly, and tight cowboy jeans also have extremely high bum-qualities.

2) All Baseball Coaches - One of the nastiest things you can see at a baseball game is the managers dressed in full baseball tights. One rule Major League Baseball should enforce is to forbid managers and coaches from wearing baseball uniforms during games. They can wear them all they want in the off season, during weekends, and in their closets, but please spare the fans and their stomachs. Back then, managers and coaches wore uniforms, because they might need to play in place of players. They don’t have that obligation anymore, so strip them of the uniforms! Some notable worst-of-the-worst freak-shows include: Don Zimmer, Jack McKeon, Tommy Lasorda, Bobby Cox, Lou Pinella (in his hat-kicking posture), and if Cecil Fielder and Kirby Puckett are coaching somewhere, they should be on this list too.

1) John Chaney (Temple basketball) - You have to love Chaney’s energy on the sidelines. Starting the game in suit and tie, Chaney would often look like he just came back from the chain-gang after the game. Chaney’s appearance after a Temple basketball game usually consists of rolled-up sleeves, shirt pulled out with only one or two buttons buttoned in the middle, tie unraveled around the neck, and a sweat soaked body. Slaves working in the cotton field can’t have looked more miserable than Chaney.

Site Meter