July 31, 2005

College Football Preview – Part 2/7, BIG 12



BIG 12



BAYLOR



Offense
Brand new season, same old results. The Bears aren’t going anywhere this season in the tough Big 12 South. Even though Oklahoma State will be down a little this year, Baylor is still the worst team by a long shot. The starting QB will be decided between Shawn Bell and Terrance Parks. Bell is mostly known for the upset of Texas A&M last year by completing 32 passes for a school record. Parks wasn’t even the starting QB in his high school as he backed up Reggie McNeal in Lufkin. Paul Mosley returns as the leading rusher while David Gettis fills in for departed WR Marques Roberts with a pretty good high school prospect in David Gettis (#37 WR) who is a true frosh with 4.3 speed. The O-line returns 3 starters and let’s not waste any more space or time on Baylor’s offense.

Defense
The defense returns with some experience with 8 returning starters. The D-line returns 3 and hopes to improve on the sack numbers from last year when their safety led the team in sacks with 3! The 4-2-5 defense loses both linebackers, but 2 seniors might get the starting jobs. The secondary should be stronger this year starting all juniors and seniors. Willie Andrews (#20 DB) at SS is the star of the defense and might garner some honors by season’s end.

Prediction
Guy Morriss turned around a Kentucky team in his 2nd season, so don’t count him out on doing the same at Baylor. He returns 14 starters from last year and could make some improvements. But if you look at who he is competing against (Texas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Texas A&M, and Okla. St.), you just can’t expect this team to win in the conference. In addition to the throng of road games to start the season, youth at QB will land Baylor another losing season.

COLORADO



Offense
Someone try and clarify for me why a program like Colorado football fails to recruit a bona fide quarterback. Joel Klatt is the returning senior starter who used to be a walk-on will be backed up by James Cox (#64 QB), Bernard Jackson (#59 QB), and Brian White (#83 QB). The Buffaloes were able to churn out awesome running backs since 2001’s duo of Chris Brown and Bobby Purify. This year’s RBs will be weaker after losing Purify. Hugh Charles will start as the speed RB while Lawrence Vickers will line up at VB, a position created for Vickers who can block and run. Byron Ellis is a youngster at RB with good speed and showed flashes of brilliance in the spring. There aren’t a lot of experience WR after Jeremy Bloom became ineligible. Blake Mackey returns after starting 2 games last year along with JC transfer Alvin Barnett. Dusty Sprague could develop into the WR of the future with good size (6-4, 190) and the ability to catch in traffic. Overall, the WRs are young, but have the potential to become good players. Tight end Joe Klopfenstein has the ability to turn into the next Daniel Graham. 3 offensive linemen return as starters with good talented back ups this year. Mark Fenton and Brian Daniels are a pair of juniors who provide consistency. On paper, the Buffaloes look average on offense. The run-oriented team will struggle unless a go-to back is found.

Defense
Colorado could see great improvement on the defense if based on continuity alone. The Buffs return 10 starters from last year’s team including 9 upperclassmen. 3 starters return to a D-line that is fast and quick. Alex Ligon, James Garee, Vaka Manupuna, and Abraham Wright can all provide good pressure, but will be challenged in stopping the run. Linebackers Jordon Dizon, Thaddaeus Washington, and Brian Iwuh were the top 3 tacklers on the team last year and combined for nearly 300 tackles (295 to be exact)! The starting CBs Lorenzo Sims and Terrence Wheatley combine for 9 interceptions last year. Wheatley is also a formidable kick returner. Safeties Dominique Brooks and JJ Billingsley wraps up the defense, although Billingsley needs to shake off some rust after not playing last year.

Prediction
Colorado can take charge of the Big 12 North with a so-so offense and a good defense, but the schedule looks brutal. I hate rivalry games kicking off the season which is exactly what will happen to Colorado and Colorado State this year. When most teams are opening the season by running drills against mid-major or I-AA teams, Colorado will be playing for in-state bragging rights. Then, in their 3rd game, the Buffs travel to Miami, Fl. Other road games include Oklahoma State, Texas, Kansas State, and Iowa State. Although Colorado misses Oklahoma and Texas Tech, I still think the schedule is too much for them.

IOWA STATE



Offense
Quarterback Bret Meyer did an admirable job last year as a redshirt freshman. Meyer has a good arm and is mobile. He even rushed for 122 yards in the bowl game against a stingy Miami, OH defense. I expect Meyer to further improve on his game as he will be helped out by WRs Todd Blythe and Jon Davis, the top 2 receivers from last year. There are an ample of running backs to choose from, but last year’s 1000-yard rusher Stevie Hicks will start with Jason Scales, Walter Nickel, and Greg Coleman backing him up. The offensive line is never the same after coach Steve Loney left for the NFL in 2002, but RT Aaron Brant and C Seth Zehr are back and will be aided by several JUCO transfers.

Defense
The defensive line returns 3 starters including Brent Curvey, Nick Leaders, and Shawn Moorehead. Jason Berryman had a tremendous 2003 season, but was red-shirted last year due to injury and might not be back this year either. Tim Dobbins returns as MLB with senior Jamarr Buchanan on his weak side; however, the strong side will be exploited by opponents where red shirt freshman Adam Carper takes over. Nik Moser is a former linebacker playing the strong safety position. He is definitely the team’s best defender and is joined by experienced DBs in Deandre Jackson and Steve Paris.

Prediction
No body expected a 7-5 season from Iowa State last year. After opening the season 2-4, the Cyclones won 4 straight conference games before losing 14-17 in OT in the finale against Missouri. A trip back to the bowls is very likely with a stable quarterback position and an easy schedule. I call it easy just because Iowa State draws the 3 weaker teams from the Big 12 South in Baylor, Oklahoma State, and Texas A&M. OSU and A&M are no push-overs, but I’m sure any team would rather face them than Texas, Oklahoma, or maybe even Texas Tech. If the Cyclones beat Nebraska on the road, They will have the inside track to winning the North crown.

KANSAS



Offense
I fully expected Mark Mangino to turn the Kansas program back to the June Henley era of the mid 1990s when he took the job in 2002. Mangino was a great offensive coordinator at Oklahoma and helped guide them to the 2000 National Championship. In 2003, the team improved their record by 4 wins, but slid back to a 4-7 record last year mainly due to the injury ravaged quarterback situation. Adam Barmann, Jason Swanson, Brian Luke, and John Nielsen all started as QB last year. The good thing about that is 3 of those 4 returns, so the QB position is fully experienced. Clark Green will return as the starting running back. He is a power runner as well as a good pass catcher as he looks to return to his pre-injured form in 2003. Jon Cornish could come in to be a surprise back if Green fails to impress. The receiving corps loses a lot of people but the senior Mark Simmons, junior Brian Murph (JC recruit), and sophomore Marcus Henry (6-4 195) could be better than last year’s squad. The line basically returns intact.

Defense
Although the Jayhawks loses 3 key players from a line that only gave up 3.3 ypc last year, Mangino thinks this year’s line could be the best in his tenure. Keep an eye on key JC recruit Rodney Allen. All but 1 of the back 7 starters return from last year, the only exception being the strong safety position. This group includes linebacker Nick Reid (2004 leading tackler with 12 tfl) and cornerback Charles Gordon (7 ints in 2004), who are both all-conference caliber players. This group could surprise many people in 2005.

Prediction
I think Mangino’s team has a chance at a bowl birth this year with an experienced defense and offensive line. The schedule should pave the way for a 3-0 start (versus Florida Atlantic, Appalachian State, and Louisiana Tech) which should infuse much needed confidence into the players. However, the 8 game Big 12 schedule is always brutal as they draw the 3 toughest opponents (Texas, OU, and Texas Tech) from the South as well as games at Colorado and Kansas State. This is also a crucial 4th year for Coach Mangino. A bowl birth would give him the chance to build the program by recruiting more high school prospects instead of relying on JUCO players. I believe this is the year Mark Mangino lives up to my expectations from the day he took this job.

KANSAS STATE



Offense
Dylan Meier and Allen Webb battled for most of the 2004 season for the starting QB position. Meier was plagued by injuries but was effective most of the time. If Meier stays healthy, I believe he should lock up the position by the 4th game against Oklahoma. Thomas Clayton (#13 RB) will fill the huge shoes vacated by Darren Sproles. Clayton is a speedster who transferred from Florida State. Carlos Alsup will also see carries, but his knee problems raise doubts in my mind. 2 returning starters at the WR position will no doubt help Meier at quarterback. Yamon Figurs has blazing speed while Jermaine Moreira will be the possession receiver. There are much to worry about on the O-line as only one starter returns in senior Jeromey Clary at RT. The other positions will be filled by a bunch of red shirt freshmen and sophomores. If the line doesn’t gel fast, another 4-7 record isn’t out of the question even for Kansas State.

Defense
Last year’s failure can be attributed to the defense as they gave up 4.1 yards per carry and only had 21 sacks. The line returns 2 seniors in Scott Edmonds and Derek Marso who combined for 11 of those sacks. Being traditionally built on JUCO players, this year is no different as Bill Snyder recruits Steve Burch and Willie Williams for the DL. Quintin Echols and Tearrius George are also JUCO players who might start on the line. Marvin Simmons (#5 LB) returns at linebacker as well as Brandon Archer. Ted Sims looks to bounce back from last year’s injury and play effectively as the middle LB. The secondary only returns free safety Jesse Tetuan as a starter, but the replacements at CB and SS all played significant minutes last year. Kyle Williams and Maurice Porter are JC transfers who are favorites to start at CB.

Prediction
You can call last year a fluke, but you never know if it will turn into a streak since KState is a JUCO-based program where not many starters return each year. This year’s schedule is tough after 3 inferior out-of-conference opponents (Florida International, a down Marshall team, and North Texas). The Wildcats will go on the road against Oklahoma and Texas Tech in a 3-week span and finishes the season with 2 straight road games against Iowa State and Nebraska before finishing with Missouri. I don’t expect Kansas State to contend for anything this year due to the young offensive line, the uncertainty at QB, an unproven RB corps, and a defense that only returns 5 players.

MISSOURI



Offense
Many expected Missouri to win the 2004 Big 12 North after Brad Smith’s monstrous 2003 season, however, inexplicably, both Smith and Missouri took a step back as they finished 2004 with a 5-6 record. In 2004, Brad Smith had 853 less rushing yards and his completion percentage dropped from 60.3 to 51.8. Many people blamed head coach Gary Pinkel for trying to make Smith more of a pocket passer, but I think the fact that the Tigers only had 1 returning starter on the OL had something to do with it also. Smith’s rushing average dropped from 6.6 ypc in 2003 to a meager 3.4 ypc last year. This year’s line only returns 2 starters but should definitely be better than last year. A pair of hot prospects, Chase Patton (#12 QB) and Chase Daniel (#7 QB, might redshirt), will backup Smith and should be the future of Tigers football. Phenom recruit Tony Temple (#4 RB) will line up at running back in his 2nd season in Missouri. The receivers are a speedy group with Sean Coffey, Brad Ekwerekwu, and William Franklin. I look for them to spread the defense and create room for Smith to roam.

Defense
This year’s defense only returns 4 starters. The D-Line loses 2 NFL draft picks and has to replace them with JUCO transfers and underclassmen. The linebackers were very disappointing last year despite having hot recruits. I look for Dedrick Harrington (#20 WR) to be better after switching positions and David Richard (#10 LB) to win his starting spot back. The DB positions need to replace a CB and the SS, but FS Jason Simpson is a good senior who led the team with tackles for loss (13) last year.

Prediction
The underachieving Tigers from 2004 should be very hungry for 2005. Brad Smith is still one of the most electrifying players in college football, but I don’t expect him to make Missouri this year’s version of the 2004 Auburn Tigers, who went undefeated after a 5-loss season. The schedule is fairly easy compared to other Big 12 teams as they get Texas, Nebraska, and Iowa State at home. The biggest road challenges are Colorado and Kansas State toward the end of the season. Despite the fair schedule, Brad Smith, and Tony Temple, I am still skeptical about the Tigers only returning 10 starters.

NEBRASKA



Offense
The 1st losing season since 1961 can be attributed to a dramatic change in Nebraska’s offensive philosophy. 1st year coach Bill Callahan from the Oakland Raiders replaced the run-oriented Husker offense with his West Coast offense in 2004. It’s hard to ask an option quarterback in Joe Dailey, who had more INTs than TDs, to perform in Callahan’s offense. This year, 2 JC transfer quarterbacks will battle for the starting position. Jordan Adams was last year’s starter but was injured. Zac Taylor is the newcomer who had 3000 passing yards at the JC level last year. Despite the conversion to a pass oriented offense, Nebraska lured high school prospect Marlon Lucky (#3 RB), who is a big back. Last year’s 1000-yard rusher Cory Ross is back for his senior year who also had 21 catches. The receiving corps needs to develop just like the QBs. The leading returning receiver only had 308 yards and that was 2nd best on the team 29 yards shy of the leader. Improvements are expected but how much out of this young group can you expect? SR Mark LeFlore looks to lead this group along with TE Matt Herian. The switch from run blocking to pass blocking yielded a surprising 4.7 ypc and only 16 sacks. Although 2 starters departs, 2 senior starters return. Red shirt freshman Gary Pike (#4 OL) will take the LG spot. One note on special teams is true frosh Jordan Congdon (#1 K) will be the starting kicker.

Defense
The Huskers are anchored by a tremendous D-line. 2 returning senior starters in Titus Adams (#14 DL) and LeKevin Smith (#31 DL) will head the DT positions. A healthy Adam Carriker at DE will help getting much needed pressure on the opposing quarterbacks. Jay Moore had 8 QB hurries in limited time last year and will start opposite of Carriker. Losing a player like LB Barrett Ruud, who had 143 tackles last year, will be a big question, but Stewart Bradley returns while 2 JC players (Dontrell Moore and Steve Octavien) provide some experience while Phillip Dillard (#16 LB) and other youngsters develop. Just like Ruud, it’s going to be hard to replace DBs Josh Bullocks and Fabian Washington who were 2nd and 1st round NFL draft picks respectively. The cornerbacks could be impressive with sophomore phenom Cortney Grixby (#6 DB) who started 2 games as a true freshman and JC recruit Zack Bowman who can blaze with 4.25 speed. Daniel Bullocks is the senior leader of this defense at his SS position. Bullocks returns as the leader in INTs (5) and had 58 tackles in 2004. Despite having both J. Bullocks and Washington last year, Nebraska gave up a whopping 268 passing yards per game last year and only had 25 sacks. Even with J. Bullocks and Washington gone, this secondary has a good chance on improving upon last year’s numbers, especially with a healthy and more experienced D-line to provide more pressure.

Prediction
The schedule will give Callahan’s squad all the time they need to warm up to Big 12 play. The first 5 games are at home including an opener against Maine. A pair of BCS non-conference foes follow in Wake Forest and Pittsburgh, both winnable games. The critical game of the season should be the Homecoming game against Texas Tech, who slashed Nebraska for 70 points last season. This will be a revenge game and also will test the Husker secondary mightily. Oklahoma and Kansas State will both come to Lincoln this year before the annual season finale against Colorado which could decide the Big 12 North Champion. Don’t expect Callahan’s 2nd year to bring the Huskers back to powerhouse status, but do expect better than last year’s losing record. Callahan did a good recruiting job, both from the high school ranks and the JC environment. Several JC recruits will play immediately which would be huge for Nebraska.

OKLAHOMA



Offense
Oklahoma loses Heisman QB Jason White, a few key members of the O-line (C Vince Carter, RT Jammal Brown, and LT Wes Sims), and almost the entire receiving corps (Mark Clayton, Mark Bradley, Brandon Jones, Will Peoples, and Ataleo Ford), 3 of whom were drafted. This would almost immediately mean a move to the cellar for any other team, but this is OU. They still have Heisman runner-up in RB Adrian Peterson as well as 2 good receivers in Travis Wilson and Jujuan Rankins. Peterson put up unbelievable numbers last year, which is only another reason for an expected decline in his production due to the heavy loss in other offensive units. Travis Wilson is possibly the most underrated WR in the nation and is due for a big year. He was in the mix last year with big names like Clayton, Bradley, and Jones, but this year, he will get to shine. On the other hand, Wilson could also be a bust just as easy as he can be a star since the QBs are not experienced, and he is the featured WR on the team. There are many highly touted players to fill in for the departed players, but there should be a transitional period for expected offensive starters like QBs Rhett Bomar, Paul Thompson, and Tommy Grady; WRs Malcolm Kelly, Tristen Ross, Lendy Holmes, and Eric Huggins; OLs Chris Bush, Brandon Keith, and Akim Millington.

Defense
Like the offense, the defense also only has a handful of returning starters. 4 players are lost to the draft in Lance Mitchell, Dan Cody, Brodney Pool, and Konte Nicholson. Dusty Dvoracek will anchor a D-line that lost 3 starters. Larry Birdine will start this year after posting an impressive 7 sacks off the bench last year. This year’s #1 prospect at DL, DeMarcus Granger might see playing time as a true freshman. The linebacker position loses Mitchell, but returns Rufus Alexander, Zach Latimer, and Clint Ingram. The backups are also high prospects out of high school, which means this year’s LB recruits, Ryan Reynolds (#3 LB), Curtis Lofton (#10 LB), and Lamont Robinson (#25 LB) might see little time or be red-shirted. The secondary also returns 1 starter (SR CB Chijioke Onyenegecha), but has a bunch of speedy blue chippers stepping into the other positions. SO CB Marcus Walker (#2 DB) had 4 starts last year as a true frosh while SO FS Tony Cade (#4 DB) has CB speed. Bo Pellini left as co-defensive coordinator from 2004. The other DC, Brent Venables, returns with Bobby Jack Wright as his co-DC.

Prediction Another 10-win season is almost guaranteed, but the morale in Norman is low due to back to back bowl losses. Oklahoma only plays 3 road games this year (plus 2 neutral site games in Dallas and Kansas City), but will end the year playing 8 consecutive weekends. The last game is in Lubbock against Texas Tech which could be a potential upset in the making due to fatigue on the Sooners’ sideline. The Red Raider’s offensive style is not favorable for any defense that might be banged up or worn out. OU will play 4 games and have a bye week before heading to Dallas to take on Texas. Even if the new starters manage continuity by then, I expect them to struggle in the game due to the combined atmosphere of the Cotton Bowl and the Texas State Fair. This year’s Texas-OU matchup should be different since gone is the invincible mystique of the Sooners after being obliterated by USC 55-19 in last year’s Orange Bowl. It is interesting to point out that up until the 2003 Big 12 Championship, everyone related to college football would say Bob Stoops is the best “big game” coach in the country, including some Longhorn fans. In just over a season, Stoops turned into possibly the biggest “big game chokers” by going 1-3 in championship games from 2003-2004, including 2 losses (1 blowout) in the national championship game.


OKLAHOMA STATE



Offense
After getting used to the Woods to Woods connection last year, we might never hear that again as Donovan Woods will be challenged by redshirt freshman Bobby Reid (#5 QB) for the starting QB. Reid would have been the starter last year if not for an injury. While Woods is more of a dual threat, he only averaged 3.5 ypc in 2004. Reid is bigger with a stronger arm. New head coach Mike Gundy still has the record for most passing yards as a Cowboy, so I look for him to go to Reid who is a drop back passer much like himself. OSU managed to produce some good backs in recent years in Tatum Bell and Vernon Morency. This year’s starting RB will be Seymore Shaw (#14 RB) who produced 377 yds on only 81 carries (4.7 ypc). A 1000-yard season for Shaw is not only possible, but is expected. D’Juan Woods is the leading receiver from 2004, but either Tommy Devereaux or Tevin Williams need to step up and relieve some of D’Juan’s pressure. The O-line is returning 4 starters, but could take a while to get used to new head coach Mike Gundy.

Defense
DE Nathan Peterson (#26 DL) is only a sophomore, but showed what a great pass-rusher he is with 3 sacks in his 1st game last year. He returns along with Marque Fountain as the ends while Xavier Lawson-Kennedy (#7 DL) and Walter Thomas fills in as the tackles after Clay Coe and Efe Mowarin departs. Both Lawson-Kennedy and Thomas are strong players who should have no problem holding up the point of attack. Rodrick Johnson and Lawrence Pinson return as starting linebackers as well as Pagitte McGee who also had starting experience. Daniel McLemore and his 4.2 speed will line up at CB across the field from returning starter Vernon Grant. Jamie Thompson led the team in tackles in 2004 with 85 and returns to his SS position but will have Thomas Wright as his fellow safety instead of the departed Jon Holland.

Prediction
1st year coaching is always hard, especially when you are one of the weaker links in America’s toughest division, the Big 12 South. Les Miles did a marvelous job at Oklahoma State, but even his best season (9-4) is barely good enough for the worst season for Mack Brown (9-3) and Bob Stoops (7-5). Gundy should open with a 3-0 start. If he doesn’t he should probably be fired considering the opponents are Montana State, Florida Atlantic, and Arkansas State. From there, the schedule is a nightmare with home games versus Colorado, Missouri, Texas and Texas Tech and road games against A&M, Iowa State, Oklahoma, and Baylor. You know it’s tough when your homecoming game is against a possible top 10 Texas team. Hey, at least they can end the season on a positive note at Baylor.


TEXAS



Offense
The hype is the scariest thing in sports, and the hype started for Texas 6 months ago when they won the Rose Bowl in what was known as Vince Young’s come out party. Because of that performance, Vince Young is one of this year’s Heisman favorites, and the Horns are national title contenders as well. Before I jump on the bandwagon and start losing my head as a Longhorn alum and fan, I went back to the Rose Bowl game to see how good UT really was in that game. Upon further inspection, Vince Young shredded an average defensive team that allowed 368, 190, and 205 rushing yards the previous 3 weeks. Despite Young’s 192 rushing yards and 5 TDs, Texas only won by 1. So, I’m not going to get all excited yet about this year’s Longhorn team. I’m not being skeptical, just cautious. Vince Young will be great, but unless he can keep defenses honest with his arm, the offense will struggle, especially without Cedric Benson in the backfield. This isn’t all Young’s fault either. One of the prospects at WR (Nate Jones, Jordan Shipley, Limas Sweed, George Walker, Tyrell Gatewood, Jermichael Finley, and Myron Hardy) needs to step up this year and let the safeties know they can’t just sneak up to the line of scrimmage. Another major issue is the running back situation. Four year starter Cedric Benson left school as the 2nd all-time Longhorn rusher behind Rickey Williams. Now, it is up to Selvin Young, Ramonce Taylor, Jamaal Charles and Henry Melton to battle for the position. I expect Young to start the season until Taylor, Charles, or Melton is ready to take over. Whoever becomes the running back, they should have great lanes to run through since the offensive line returns 4 starters, all capable of All-American honors in Jonathan Scott, Justin Blalock, Will Allen and Kasey Studdard. If the line can pave the way for a 4.7 yard average for the running back corps, then they’ve done their job.

Defense
The defensive line is questionably the best Texas D-line since the 1999-2000 line which featured 1st round draft picks Casey Hampton and Shaun Rogers. This year’s line is composed of All-American candidate Rodrique Wright (#2 DL), Larry Dibbles (#8 DL), Tim Crowder (#17 DL) and Brian Robison. Backing them up are hot prospects in Frank Okam (#2 DL) and Aaron Lewis (#9 DL). The linebacker corps loses All-American Derrick Johnson, but returns senior Aaron Harris (#7 LB). It seems like Eric Hall and Eric Harris will battle out the strongside LB position while Robert Killebrew takes on the weakside. Harris and the crew will do an admirable job this year, but it’s hard to match Johnson’s 9 forced fumbles last year, which set an NCAA record. Cedric Griffin and Michael Huff is a pair of shutdown senior cornerbacks. It’s going to be tough to decide which one to pick on since both have great speed, both are big (6-2 193 for Griffin, 6-1 205 for Huff), and the two combined for 62 games started at the collegiate level. DC Greg Robinson left for the HC position at Syracuse, but filling his position is Auburn DC Gene Chizik who led the #1 scoring defense in the nation last year.

Prediction
This team is loaded for a national title run. Since many key players are seniors (TE David Thomas, RG Will Allen, LT Jonathan Scott, DT Larry Dibbles, DT Rod Wright, LB Aaron Harris, LB Eric Hall, CB Cedric Griffin, and CB Michael Huff), this is a make or break season. However, the schedule is fairly tough. A non-conference game against Ohio State in early September will be a pace-setter for the rest of the season. That’s only the 1st hurdle as Texas still has to face the team that owned them for the last few years Oklahoma as well as Texas Tech’s rising program. The season wraps up in College Station against arch rivals Texas A&M Aggies who is an improved team under Dennis Fanchione. This year’s Red River Shootout against Oklahoma is 100% mental for the Longhorns since they are a better team on paper this year. Texas need to find who is the 3rd CB before the Texas Tech game since Tech is known for their aerial attack which could line up 3-5 receivers for most of the game. The A&M game should continue to be as one-sided as the Texas-OU games in the last few years.

TEXAS A&M



Offense
QB Reggie McNeal enters his 4th season as the starter. The senior can pass as well as run and should enjoy a fine senior year. Walk-on Ty Branyon won the backup job last year, but I expect Stephen McGee (#7 QB) to beat out Branyon for the position and could eventually lead to a starting job next year. Courtney Lewis can be a 1000 yard rusher this year if he stays healthy enough to build upon a successful 2004. The O-line returns 4 starters and should also be solid in paving the way for Lewis and McNeal. The star of the line is senior Jami Hightower (#5 OL). Martellus Bennett (#1 TE) is this year’s key recruit and could play right away, but sophomore Joey Thomas (#9 TE) will challenge for playing time. The receiving corps returns 5 of the top 6 from 2004 and only loses Terrence Murphy. Senior DeQawn Mobley is a JC transfer in his 2nd year at A&M. He is a gifted athlete at 6-2, 201 and an incredible 41.5 inch vertical leap. We might see a lot of passes going his way inside the red zone.

Defense
Texas A&M’s recent defenses hardly deserve the “Wrecking Crew” moniker it possessed for so long. This year’s defense returns 8 starters and could make improvements. The D-line has 3 returning starters, including 2 sophomores in Jason Jack (#12 DL) and Red Bryant. Another sophomore will start at end in Chris Harrington. Overall, the line has good depth, but lacks the pass rusher they desperately need. Keep an eye on redshirt freshman Cyril Obiozor. All 3 starting linebackers return from last year. Justin Warren (#4 LB), Archie McDaniel, and Renuel Greene are all upperclassmen, but none of the 3 even cracked the top 5 in tackles on the team last year. The cornerbacks are very green, featuring mostly freshmen (Danny Gorrer, Alton Dixon), sophomores (Erik Mayes, Broderick Newton), 1st year JC transfers (Marquis Carpenter), and converted players (Ray Ray Jones from SS). However, everyone is very high on redshirt freshman Danny Gorrer who has 4.4 speed. The safeties has thunder and lightning qualities in big hitter Jaxson Appel and speedy Japhus Brown (4.3 speed). Appel led the team with 85 tackles in 2004, but lacks the coverage skills and size. Despite the negatives, Appel is one of the best in the nation.

Prediction
You gotta give it to RC Slocum for scheduling tough games to begin the season instead of I-AA pushovers. The Aggies played at Utah in 2004; Utah, Pitt, and at Virginia Tech in 2003; VT and at Pitt in 2002; and Notre dame in 2001. Now in Franchione’s 3rd year, A&M starts the year at Clemson, SMU, and Texas State. With scheduling like that and the decision to play Texas Tech in Dallas, it seems like Texas A&M athletic director Bill Byrne really is admitting A&M doesn’t belong with the big boys of the Big 12 South in Texas and Oklahoma. A&M might get their 4-0 or 3-1 start, but it should be very tough having to go on the road against Colorado, Kansas State, and back to back games at Texas Tech and Oklahoma. No matter how badly those games go, the big one is always against Texas on November 25 for the season finale. The Aggies might get into a lot of shootouts this season, but it remains to be seen if their offense can hang with the top tier defenses of Texas and Oklahoma. My guess right now is no.

TEXAS TECH



Offense
Mike Leach can be dubbed as the Steve Spurrier of this decade. He has consistently proven his offensive system by plugging in sub-par quarterbacks who churns out record-shattering numbers. Just to show you the numbers, Kliff Kingsbury had 5017 passing yards and 45-13 TD-INT ratio in 2002, BJ Symons had 5833 yds and 52-22 in 2003 as a 1st year starterin 2003, Sonny Cumbie had 4744 yds and 32-18 in 2004. For 2005, Leach actually has 2 talents at QB to work with in Phillip Daugherty (#22 QB) and Graham Harrell (#16 QB), but the early favorite is another senior Cody Hodges who might be the next Symons or Cumbie. Leach will also get more talented skill position players this year. RB Taurean Henderson is a converted WR who rushed for 16 TDs last year and caught 60 passes. There will be probably 3 or 4 WRs with at least 50 receptions this year, but none are more talented than Jarrett Hicks who could be an All-American in 2005 with a weak group of WRs in the college game. Cody Fuller, Joel Filani, and LA Reed are the other possible starters at WR. The offensive line loses 3 starters including the entire left side.

Defense
A veteran D-line returns for the Red Raiders. The only returning non-starter might have the most talent in Keyunta Dawson who can rush the QB with his 4.48 speed at the end position. Dawson led the team with 6.5 sacks last year despite only 2 starts. Brock Stratton leads the linebackers despite only being 5-11. On the other hand, his fellow linebacker John Saldi is 6-5 playing the strong side. The secondary consists of Khalid Naziruddin who took over the starting job last season at cornerback. The former walk-on had 83 tackles last year. Antonio Huffman is the other corner while Vincent Meeks and Dwayne Slay are the safeties.

Prediction
It’s tough to build a program in the Big 12 South with teams like Oklahoma, Texas, and Texas A&M soaking up all the talents and headlines, but Mike Leach is doing just fine. Although Tech’s program is still not in the upper echelon of college football, it is showing steady progress toward that status. Last year’s Holiday Bowl upset of California was a great statement game for the program and high school prospects around the nation. This year, a win against Oklahoma at home in the season finale will really sound some alarms. I think they have a great chance at beating the Sooners. Tech plays only one game on grass in 2005 and faces basically 3 Division I-AA schools to start the season (Florida International, Sam Houston St., and Indiana St.). Come on Leach, do you want to be seen as the bully who picks on retarded kids?

July 24, 2005

College Football Preview – Part 1/7, SEC



In the world of America’s big four professional sports, there are only two days when no games are played; the day before and after MLB’s all star game. Summer time belongs to baseball fans, but in the three day baseball all star hiatus, my attention turns toward my number one passion, COLLEGE FOOTBALL.

One of the happiest days for me every year is when the different sports magazines come out with their College Football Previews. It is no different this year. Although I have been a die-hard Sporting News guy since 2001, I have shifted toward Phil Steele last year due to the massive amount of information it provides. In previous summers, I’m either reading preview magazines in a cubicle or in the summer school classroom. A little change this year, I’ll be reading in my bedroom. The reason I am writing a preview is not only because I love college football, but also because I believe writing the preview will help me understand the teams better. I’ve already done my homework on teams I love in Tennessee, Texas, and USC, but this way, I’ll be up to date on the rest of the field.

Let’s get to the point. I will break down the 5 main BCS conferences in the following order: SEC, Big12, PAC10, Big Ten, and ACC. Forgive me Big East fans, but other than Louisville, no other teams pose a threat to win the national title. I will also rank the top 15 teams going into the season and the top 15 teams at the end of the season. Finally, I will present my first annual All American Team.

SEC



I grew up in SEC country in Knoxville, Tennessee, so I have always believed that SEC is to college football as Athens is to ancient Greece. For the better part of the 90s, the SEC East dominated the conference with championship-caliber teams such as Tennessee and Florida with a recent resurgence of Georgia back to powerhouse status and the newly Steve Spurrier-led Gamecock crew of South Carolina. Despite weak links in Vanderbuilt and Kentucky, there is no doubt the East has been the better division for the 90s.

The West can boast about Alabama’s title run in 1992, but ever since, probations for Auburn and Alabama has weakened the division. Nick Saban managed to turn LSU into national prominence in 2003 as co-champions, but with his departure, LSU might fall back to mediocrity within 3 years which is when players he recruited are due to graduate. Les Miles is a formidable replacement, but doesn’t have the track record as a recruiter at Oklahoma State; however, LSU practically recruits with its name alone, being in the football hotbed of Louisiana. Regardless, LSU is in a transitional phase. Auburn turned in probably the most disappointing season in the last ten years with their 7-5 2003 season despite being picked as the national champion favorites in several publications. They erased the bitter taste with a 13-0 2004, but still wasn’t good enough to play for the national title. I feel it was a real injustice for the Tigers since SEC is a premier conference with 7 teams averaging attendance better than 80,000 last year. To go undefeated in a conference where so many people cares and so many powerhouses play is just unbearable.

The format I am going to use is that I will write a few paragraphs about each team in the league. Then, at the end, I will rank the teams twice, once for the beginning of the season and again for how I think they will finish, which means I will factor in their schedules.

ALABAMA



Offense
Brody Croyle is back for his 15th season at quarterback. Ok, seriously, the once-highly touted (#2QB in 2001) quarterback comes back after being knocked out for the season in the 3rd game of 2004 for his senior season (5th year). Croyle should enjoy a fine senior season, but his health should be a concern after missing significant time in 2003 and 2004. Leading passer Spencer Pennington is gone to pursue a baseball career, so Croyle will be backed by Marc Guillon. Kenneth Darby looks to build on a good sophomore season in which he rushed for 1101 yards and 8 TDs. All the top receivers from 2004 are back so improved production is expected especially with Croyle pulling the trigger. The biggest concern is the OL where 3 projected starters are redshirt freshmen; however, the Tide are used to replacing the OL in the past few years and has one of the best guards in the nation in JB Closner, 1 of only 2 seniors starters on offense (Croyle).

Defense
The starting defense returns 7 seniors and 9 starters from 2004. Wallace Gilberry led the team with 6.5 sacks last year and is only a sophomore this year on the DL. He will be joined by three returning starters. The linebacking crew is solid with DeMeco Ryans and Freddie Roach. The defensive backs are all returning starters. In the mix is Simeon Castille, a highly recruited CB with good size (6-1, 187). He had an interception in his first game as a true freshman last year. This is a defense that practically returns everyone from a 2004 team that held 10 of 12 opponents under 135 yards passing, and 6 of 12 teams under 100 yards rushing. There should be no concerns here.

Prediction
Despite the 6-5 2004 regular season, Alabama was a better team than their record indicates. Without starting QB Brody Croyle, the Tide were able to stay in the game at Tennessee (lost 13-17) and vs. Auburn (lost 13-21). The 2005 season hinges on the health of Croyle. With a favorable schedule, the Tide has a chance to win the SEC West. Alabama gets Arkansas, Florida, Tennessee, and LSU at home with only 4 road games; the toughest being the last game of the season at Auburn. LSU and Auburn on back-to-back weekends at the end of the season will be a major test. I believe head coach Mike Shula will enjoy his best year in his 3rd season.

ARKANSAS



Offense
Gone is the human gazelle, Matt Jones. In comes a bunch of inexperienced QBs in speedy sophomore Robert Johnson (4.5 in the 40), redshirt freshman Alex Mortensen (Chris Mortensen’s son), Landon Leach, and Cole Barthel (baseball player). I expect Robert Johnson to win the job provided he fully recovers from hernia repair operations. The receiving corps is young as well, although loaded with speed (Chris Baker 4.27, Cedric Washington 4.3, Cedric Logan 4.37, Michael Coe 4.48, and Marcus Monk 4.5). Among them, Marcus Monk is the man with an unbelievable combination of size and speed (6-6, 224lb, 4.5 speed). He played basketball and football in high school and was the valedictorian of his high school class. While only a sophomore, he’s already a terrific pro prospect but need to prove he’s more than just an athlete. The Hogs will have to rely predominantly on their ground attack this year with De’Arrius Howard and Peyton Hillis. You’ve probably heard of the phrase “Thunder and Lightning” before used to describe a combination of a power back and a speed back such as USC’s Lendale White and Reggie Bush, but here at Arkansas, they have “Thunder and More Thunder” with Howard and Hillis. Howard is a bruiser at 6-0, 228lb, with 4.4 speed, while Hillis is the fullback at 6-2, 238lb. Both are top 10 prospects at their positions coming out of high school (Howard #7 at RB, Hillis #9 at RB) and had amazing numbers (Howard rushed for 2746yds his senior year while Hillis ran for 2631yds!). Although an underachiever, Howard could pull a Cedric Cobbs in 2005 and redeem himself. Hillis is still a youngster looking to further develop. Darren McFadden is a hot prospect (#9RB) who might beat out both Howard and Hillis, but if I were coaching the Hogs, I would redshirt him. The OL features 4 returning starters and 3 seniors and should once again be a strong unit under OL coach Mike Markuson.

Defense
The Hogs like to convert WRs to the DL (Jamaal Anderson, Anthony Brown, and Desmon Sims). Sims and Brown are the projected starters despite weighing 228lbs and 223lbs respectively. The defensive scheme is moving from 4-2-5 to 4-3, so seniors Sam Olajubutu and Pierre Brown will start as the OLB with their tremendous speed. The secondary had a year to mature and should be more experienced with senior SS Vickiel Vaughn as the anchor to the unit.

Prediction
The offense has the talent and potential to be great, but hasn’t yet performed on the field. I believe Houston Nutt, one of the better coaches in the nation, will have his team play well in the SEC West. The defense should be better against the run this year after wearing out last year, giving up 295 rushing yards to LSU in the season finale. The schedule doesn’t have Florida or Tennessee, but is still a handful. Back-to-back weekends on the road against defending champion USC and Alabama will either break or make this team. After a home game against defending SEC champ Auburn, the Hogs will still have to face Georgia and LSU on the road. I like Arkansas’ offense, but I believe they’ll have to wait until next year for the young quarterback and receivers to develop and for the schedule to become more favorable. Hats off to Arkansas for scheduling powerhouse teams (Texas in ’03 and 04, USC in ’05 and ’06).

AUBURN



Offense
The Tiger offensive backfield is completely depleted after their 13-0 2004 campaign. QB Jason Campbell (#25 WAS), Carnell “Cadillac” Williams (#5 TB), and Ronnie Brown (#2 MIA) were all first round NFL draft picks. Going into 2005, the QB battle is among a sophomore and two redshirt freshman in Brandon Cox, Calvin Booker, and Blake Field. Cox is the early favorite since he backed up Jason Campbell last year. Cox was an extremely accurate passer in high school setting an Alabama state 6A career record for completion percentage at 68.7%. He completed 70.8% of his passes in his senior year of high school. The RB situation is not as green as the Tiger QBs, but still very inexperienced. Tre Smith, a junior, will have first stabs at the starting tailback position after missing 2004 due to medical reasons. He was a backup to Brown and Williams and also returned punts in 2003. With heavy losses in the backfield, Auburn is going 3-wide this season, a justifiable move. Wide receivers Courtney Taylor (Jr.), Devin Aromashodu (Sr.), Ben Obomanu (Sr.), Anthony Mix (Sr.), and tight end Cooper Wallace (Sr.) are all back with tons of experience. Their presence indicates a change of pace from two years of ground game with Cadillac and Ronnie Brown. This corps will also feature youngsters in James Swinton and highly touted frosh Montez Billings (#20WR). The inexperience of the backfield will be aided by a veteran and talented front line. Sr. tackle Marcus McNeill, a possible All-American will anchor a line that also features Troy Reddick (tackle).

Defense
Everyone will remember the trio of Tigers who were drafted in the 1st round of the 2005 NFL on the offensive side of the ball, but DB Carlos Rogers was also taken (#9 WAS). Also gone for 2005 is 13 game starter in 2004, CB Junior Rosegreen. The defensive backfield looks like a sieve at this time. The DL isn’t much better, only returning 1 starter; however, Stanley McClover, nicknamed “The Predator” by Tommy Tuberville, is a budding star. Despite a strong linebacking crew in Kevin Sears, Antarrious and Travis Williams (no relation…Travis is the cousin of Duce Staley), The Tigers defense has their work cut out for them. Along with a bunch of inexperienced players, they have to adjust to new defensive coordinator David Gibbs after Gene Chizik left to fill the position at Texas vacated by DC Greg Robinson.

Prediction
Auburn’s young team is blessed with a forgiving schedule for 2005. Although The Citadel, UL Monroe, and LA Tech are off the schedule, the Tigers don’t play an away team until mid October. Still, it will be a challenge provided season opener foe Georgia Tech features All-American WR Calvin Johnson and formidable QB Reggie Ball who could have a field day over the green Auburn secondary and defensive line. Auburn fans, get ready for the Tigers to give up some ugly numbers on defense this year.

FLORIDA



Offense
This is a terrific offense, one of the best in the country. One knock is the running game as the SEC leader in rushing, Ciatric Fason, departed after 2004. His position will be fought out by some blue-chippers in DeSahwn Wynn (experienced), Skyler Thornton (all-around back), and Markus Manson (speedster who can break long ones). Although first year head coach Urban Meyer has proven he can win without a star running back, the SEC is a completely different from the Mountain West and Mid Atlantic Conference. You have to be balanced to win. At quarterback is savvy junior Chris Leak who should put up All American numbers. Don’t worry about the wide receiver position as talented upper-classmen (Andre Caldwell Jr., Chad Jackson Jr., and Dallas Baker Sr.) fill the starting roles and are backed by a plethora of highly-touted recruits (Nyantakyi Boateng #8WR and David Nelson #19WR). The line returns 3 starting seniors and should be solid. Adjustment to Urban Meyer’s system might prevent Florida from winning the SEC East, but the offense is composed of juniors and seniors as well as top talents out of high school.

Defense
The top 2 tacklers from last years team returns in linebackers Brandon Siler (So.) and Earl Everett (Jr.). Siler was amazing last year to lead the team in tackles (77) as a true freshman. Todd McCullough is the favorite to replace 3rd round draft pick Channing Crowder, but true frosh Jon Demps (#17LB) will challenge for playing time. There’s a gem in the secondary in junior CB Demetrice Webb who is so good he might leave for the NFL after this year. The safety spots are held by senior returning starter Jarvis Herring and high school prospect Kyle Jackson (#5SS) who is a sophomore. True freshman Avery Atkins (#14DB) and junior college transfer Reggie Nelson are also going to contribute to the secondary. The defensive line will be solid, returning every starter from a squad that gave up only 3.7 yards per carry last year.

Prediction
Urban Meyer’s quarterbacks are all running, dual-threat QBs from Josh Harris at Bowling Green in 2001-2002, to Alex Smith at Utah in 2003-2004. Now he has Chris Leak at Florida who is no different from the other two in their style of play except Leak has a much bigger arm than both Harris and Smith. This is a good sign for Florida to avoid a 5-loss season for the first time since 2001. I like both the Gator offense and defense in that there are talent and experience. The schedule is not bad for an SEC school. With 2 “warm-up” games at home before taking on Tennessee in the Swamp, the Gators should be favorites for that matchup. The hardest game should be October 15 at LSU. Georgia and Florida State are both big games but the Gators get off weeks before each game. Will Florida challenge for the championship? Yes. Will they win it? No. It’s hard for a coach to win the national title in his first year at a school even if it is Urban Meyer and even if his team is oozing with talent. Maybe his second year, like what Jim Tressel of Ohio State and Bob Stoops of Oklahoma, but few will pull a Larry Coker at Miami. Even for Coker who won the national championship in his first year as head coach, it was actually his 7th season at Miami. This means Coker was already very familiar with the school, the athletes, the program, the local media, and the fans, which is what Urban Meyer needs to do before he can win the championship.

GEORGIA



Offense
Remember the David Greene/DJ Shockley controversy a few years back? Now that Greene is gone, Shockley gets 1 year to prove himself. He won’t get much help from receivers Reggie Brown and Fred Gibson because they’re gone as well, but a running back corps composed of Thomas Brown (#3RB), Kregg Lumpkin (#3RB), Danny Ware (724 yds as true freshman), Tyson Browning, Tony Milton, and Michael Cooper will be one of the best in the country. An assortment of injuries to these running backs in the previous few years means that each one had their time to shine and they did just that. Brown and Lumpkin are blue chip prospects out of high school while Ware, Browning, and Cooper all proved that they can handle the load if asked. The receivers are very weak with the departure of Brown and Gibson (both NFL draft picks), but the key might be short passes to the talented tight end Leonard Pope as deep routes aren’t Shockley’s bread and butter. Recruit Mohamed Massaquoi (#5WR), Sean Bailey (#6WR), AJ Bryant (#10QB, converted WR), and Mario Raley (#18WR) will haul in the passes. The offensive line is good and massive, averaging 6-5, 314lb. There might be a few NFL prospects here, headlined by guard Max Jean-Gilles.

Defense
The Bulldogs lost key players in the DL unit (David Pollack, Defensive Player of the Year), the LB unit (Odell Thurman, 2nd round NFL pick), and the DB unit (Thomas Davis, 14th overall NFL pick). There are a bunch of highly-touted players on the squad, but few have lived up to their expectations. Sr. DT Kendric Golston (#3DL) for example, started as a true freshman, but has yet to live up to his potentials due to injury and disciplinary issues. The DL returns 3 senior starters, and could be the key to this defense. Due to injuries last year, the linebacking crew does have some experience, but someone needs to step up early. Odds are that sophomore Brandon Miller (#10DL) and redshirt freshman Josh Johnson (#17) will be starters by the end of the year.FS Greg Blue wasn’t a highly sought after athlete coming out of high school, but no doubt, he is the leader of the team. He will anchor the secondary as well as the entire defense.


Prediction
I’m guessing the play calling for this years Bulldogs is run, run, and more run. The massive OL, an option quarterback DJ Shockley, and a handful of running backs led me to my conclusion, but if you look at Georgia’s big-game opponents Florida, Tennessee, and Auburn, they all have tremendous front-7s and good safety support. I just don’t see Georgia making much noise after losing their leaders on offense (David Greene) and defense (David Pollack). It is not out of the question for Georgia to start the season with 2 home losses versus Boise State and South Carolina. It doesn’t get much easier after that with visits to Tennessee and Georgia Tech plus matchups against Arkansas, Florida, and Auburn. I don’t think Georgia will win the SEC East due to the loss of players and their schedule.

KENTUCKY



Offense
Andre Woodson (#25 QB) starts as a sophomore quarterback for the Wildcats. He is big (6-5, 230), not quite Jared Lorenzen big, but big as in tall. Despite being a sophomore, Woodson had some playing time last year and did pretty well. He is also impressive in spring ball. Another sophomore starts at tailback in Rafael Little, who was the 2nd leading rusher last year. Sophomores Jacob Tamme and Keenan Burton will start at TE and WR respectively, as well as fellow classmen Aaron Miller and Micah Jones on the O-line. You guessed it; there are a lot of youth on the squad, and little talent due to probation.

Defense
The defensive scheme switched from 4-2-5 to 3-4 to a 4-3 in just 2 years. Wanting to stop the run, DC Mike Archer made the change from his 3-4 style. They lose valuable linebackers in Chad Anderson who quit the team and Jon Sumrall due to injuries. With Durrell white moving to the line, this unit looks very weak. Both the D-line and secondary returns 3 starters so they should be better off. Muhammad Abdullah is a seasoned senior who has been productive in the past 2 seasons.

Prediction
I don’t see Rich Brooks improving in his 3rd season with the loss of scholarships due to probation and a nasty schedule. Not only does Kentucky have to face Florida, Auburn, Georgia and Tennessee, they have in-state rival Louisville to worry about in the opener. For a program like Kentucky, all you can ask for is to finish the season strong so you can build on something next year. Even this looks like a daunting task as the Wildcats finish with UGA and UT, 2 teams who combined for 1195 yards of total offense and 99 points against UK last year.

LSU



Offense
Thanks to Nick Saban, it’s hard to find a player on LSU’s roster ranked outside of the top ten at their position coming out of high school. Let’s take a look: JaMarcus Russell (#4QB), Alley Broussard (#8RB), Justin Vincent (#9RB), David Jones (#4TE), Early Doucet (#1WR), Xavier Carter (#2WR), Andrew Whitworth (#8OL), and Herman Johnson (#9OL). Russell or Randall, Randall or Russell? That was what fans tried to figure out the entire season. Then in the bowl, it became Russell or Flynn! New coach Les Miles doesn’t have a history of quarterback controversies because he never had really good prospects to begin with. Now, he will have to face the question of the three headed monster, Russell, Flynn, or Perrilloux. The other three-headed monster occurs at the running back position, with Broussard, Vincent, and Addai all deserving of the starting nod. And yet another hairy situation is who starts at wide receiver?! Craig Davis and Dwayne Bowe are upperclassmen returning starters who led the team in receiving last year, but Doucet, Carter, and Amp Hill (#12WR) are all phenoms. The line returns 4 starters to ensure the safety of the position players. Andrew Whitworth is a returning All-Conference 1st Team player. Welcome to a powerhouse school, Les Miles, where you have to make the hard decision of which blue chipper to start.

Defense
The defensive line loses Marcus Spears (#20 overall NFL pick), but returns 3 senior starters in Kyle Williams, Claude Wroten, and Melvin Oliver. Their backup consists of another throng of blue chippers in Glen Dorsey (So. #7DL), Tim Washington (redshirt Fr. #16DL), Marlon Favorite (rFr. #19DL), Ricky Jean-Francois (Fr. #14DL), and Al Jones (Fr. #16DL). The linebacking corps makes up for the lack of pure talent with experience. 3 seniors will start off the year with Luke Sanders and Darry Beckwith as possible torch bearers. The safeties are strong in LaRon Dandry and Jessie Daniels, but both starting cornerbacks depart. Replacing the CB position is one of the most difficult things in college football, but LSU has blue chippers doing that in Sammy Joseph, Ronnie Prude, and Mario Stevenson. At LSU, not only does one wave of blue-chip players replace another wave of blue-chip players, even coaches come with credentials. Nick Saban was a defensive minded coach and will be replaced by the new defensive coordinator Bo Pelini, the former DC at Oklahoma and interim head coach at Nebraska in 2003.

Prediction
At first glance, LSU wasn’t too appealing of a choice for national title contention, but just looking at their roster made me start to change my mind. There are so many NFL-caliber players at LSU with tons of potential. Just as I start to jump on the bandwagon, I came back to earth for several reasons. First, like Urban Meyer, this is Les’ first year at LSU in an unfamiliar conference. The fact that he coached with success in a major conference before and has retained the offensive coordinator, Jimbo Fisher, from the previous staff might make him more successful than Meyer, however, I don’t think he can win a title in his first year. Second, all the uncertainties on offense will cost them a chance to beat Tennessee, which is only their 3rd game of the season. I don’t believe their CBs would adapt that early in the season either. The schedule is very friendly with the three big games (Tennessee, Florida, and Auburn) all at home, but wait, did I see that correctly? Appalachian State? APPALACHIAN STATE is on their schedule??? Come on, the LSU practice squad can beat App. St.! It is a homecoming game, so maybe it’s like a fan appreciation gesture, schedule an easy opponent so the fans can get wasted by the 1st quarter and not miss any football. It’s also a good way of burning redshirts and practice running up the score. If this years Rose Bowl invitation comes down to the wire again like last year, voters could look at Appalachian State on LSU’s schedule to turn them into 2005’s version of Auburn.

MISSISSIPPI



Offense
Along with Eli Manning, gone are the wins, and also the head coach, David Cutcliffe (after 2004). Much of the maligned season was due to the departure of the leading quarterback (Eli Manning), running back (Tremaine Turner), and wide receiver (Chris Collins) from 2003. However, Cutcliffe took the blame and got the axe, despite being one of the better coaches in the nation in my opinion. This year’s squad should be much more experienced with all 3 quarterbacks returning, including super sophomore prospect Robert Lane (#5 QB), senior Vashon Pearson, 827 rushing yards on 5.1 average, and 3 senior WRs in Mario Hill, Taye Biddle and Mike Espy. A pair of bookend tackles return to aid the offense, but the center and both guards have to be replaced.

Defense
Much like the offense, the defense suffered from losing 5 of the top 7 tacklers from the 2003 team. Last year’s defense only held opponents under 100 yards rushing in 1 game. Head coach Ed Orgeron should improve the run defense since he has been one of the best defensive line coaches while at USC. 3 starters return to the D-line, which is likely to be starting 4 seniors this year. Hot prospect Jerrell Powe (#2 DL) is a talent recruited by Orgeron this year. Patrick Willis might have a break out year at the MLB position as a junior starter. He had 70 tackles and 5 sacks in 2004. The secondary is spearheaded by FS Charles Clark who led the team with 76 tackles last year, although he had no interceptions. In fact, the entire defense only had 8 interceptions last year, an area that needs to be addressed.

Prediction
I expect new coach Orgeron’s presence to be felt on the defensive side of the ball. After all, he should have learned a thing or two in his 4 years under Pete Carroll, who was both HC and DC at USC. His offensive coordinator is one of Tommy Tuberville’s protégé, Noel Mazzone. These two men combined for a 26-0 record last year! If nothing else, their winning attitudes should give a boost to this team. The Orgeron defense will be tested right away as Ole Miss opens the season at Memphis, who features one of the nation’s best running backs in DeAngelo Williams (1948 yds, 22 tds last year). Although the road games against Tennessee and Auburn will be tough, the Rebels get both Vandy and Kentucky from the east. You can expect a near .500 record for the year.

MISSISSIPPI STATE



Offense
The offense returns 8 starters for 2005. Omarr Conner (#20 QB) is a mobile QB who should do well in this offense which doesn’t require him to pass the ball too much. Besides, he will be handing off the football most of the time to senior Jerious Norwood (#6 RB). Norwood had a solid junior campaign and could be even more spectacular in his 2nd season under head coach Sylvester Croom and offensive coordinator Woody McCorvey, both of whom were running back coaches (Croom for the Packers and McCorvey for Tennessee). The only thing to worry about on offense is the line, where 3 starters need to be replaced.

Defense
The defense also returns 8 starters, featuring defensive end Willie Evans who is one of the best in the SEC with 67 tackles (2nd on team), 5.5 sacks, and 9 tfl last year. Former cornerback Quinton Culberson converted to middle linebacker late last year and will start this season. The secondary should be fairly strong since they only gave up one 300-yard passing game last year, however, 5 foes rushed for over 200 against the Bulldogs including Vanderbilt who doesn’t even have a 500-yard rusher for the season. I expect the run defense to improve with 3 starters returning on the line.
Prediction
Croom’s stint at MSU started with a boom in a victory against Tulane, but then lost 5 in a row, including a humiliating loss to Maine. It seems like Croom is doomed, but he mustered out a miraculous upset of Florida in Starkville, which brought him immediate immunity. The loss to Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl was hard to swallow, so I look forward to an improved season. Looking at the schedule, it looks like Miss. St. could once again be 1-5 to start (the schedule includes Auburn, Georgia, LSU, and Florida in the 1st 6 weeks). Despite that, they have a chance to win out the last 5 games of their season, which would be a tremendous job regardless of how the 1st 6 games go. This is only Croom’s 2nd year, so be patient. Croom is getting some pretty good prospects so the future looks good.

SOUTH CAROLINA



Offense
Spurrier is back. Spurrier is back. Spurrier is back. That’s all you need to know for offense. Ok, ok, here’s a little more about the Gamecocks. As a college football fan, it is sad knowing Demetris Summers won’t be back this season after being kicked off the team for undisclosed reasons. Summers was the #1 running back prospect in the class of 2003. Cory Boyd, the 2nd leading rusher last year, will start at RB if his off-field problems subside, or else, either senior RB Daccus Turman or freshmen Mike Davis (#31 RB), Taylor Rank (#54 RB), and Bobby Wallace (#78 RB) will have their shot at the tailback position. We all know Spurrier doesn’t need a prospect at QB to succeed, so whoever takes over should do fine. The wide receiver corps loses Troy Williamson (#7 overall pick by MIN), so they will be down a notch. Look for Spurrier’s recruits, OJ Murdock (#16WR) and Carlos Thomas (#22 WR), to play a factor this year. The O-line returns 2 starting tackles in Na’Shan Goddard and Jabari Levey and a good youngster in sophomore guard James Thompson; however, it will be difficult converting the blocking scheme from Lou Holtz’s option offense to Spurrier’s “Fun ’N Gun”. South Carolina will struggle early offensively getting used to a new offense as well as finding the right personnel.

Defense
The D-line loses 5 players from 2004, including all 4 starters. Despite the greenness on the line, this could eventually be a solid unit by year’s end. Senior De’Adrian Coley doesn’t have much experience but has linebacker speed (4.58) at the end position. A very highly touted DT in Marque Hall (#10 DL) could be a dominating player in the middle. Ricardo Hurley (#3 LB) is a senior returning starter who should make a run at All-Conference. Flanking him will be JUCO star Mike West and senior Lance Laury who had 90 tackles as a freshman. The secondary returns 3 starters headed by SEC freshman of the year Ko Simpson at FS. Simpson is the returning leader in both tackles (61) and interceptions (6).

Prediction
Right off the bat, Spurrier gets Georgia in Athens and Alabama at home in the 2nd and 3rd games of the season. The Gamecocks don’t get an off week until after their 6th game. If the offense looks sharp after the October 15th matchup against Vandy, then Tennessee and Florida should start worrying, but unless the offense pans everything out by then, South Carolina will be looking at a 6-loss season.

TENNESSEE



Offense
The long line of quarterback excellence came to an end last season, or was it just a pause? Dating way back to Andy Kelly (1988-91) who left as UT’s all time leading passer, Heath Shuler (1992-93) who was 2nd in the 1993 Heisman voting and #3 overall pick in the 1994 NFL draft, Peyton Manning (1994-97) who will be idolized in East Tennessee for decades, Tee Martin (1998-99) who led UT to their national title in 1998, and finally Casey Clausen (2000-03) who was a four-year starter and a second coming of Peyton Manning. Freshmen QB Brent Schaeffer and Erik Ainge took over last season as true freshmen, but Rick Clausen finished the season after both were injured. This year’s quarterback Erik Ainge comes back from his injury, and could become the next Manning or Clausen. Schaeffer transferred and Clausen could challenge for the starting job not to mention Jonathan Crompton (#3QB) will also be on campus (likely will redshirt). The running attack is led by heralded senior Gerald Riggs who finally fulfilled his #3RB ranking out of high school last year by leading the team in rushing with 1130 yds and 5.7 ypc. Some say this is Tennessee’s best WR corps in history, which is saying quite a lot. I don’t agree, but simply because they haven’t performed on the field. In terms of potential, the UT receivers are definitely a top tier group with Jayson Swain (Jr.), Chris Hannon (Sr.), Robert Meachem (So.), CJ Fayton (Sr.), Bret Smith (Jr.), and Slick Shelley (Fr. #9WR). The OL was injury plagued last year, which means this year’s group has a lot of starting experience. The star of the O-line is senior tackle Arron Sears.

Defense
I am really high on the DL with All-American caliber seniors in Jesse Mahelona and Parys Haralson. The 2 combined for 12 sacks and 21 tackles for loss last year. Demonte Bolden, a terrific prospect (#6DL) will play a backup role. Three seniors will start at linebacker in Omar Gaither, Kevin Simon, and Jason Mitchell. Simon was a starter and a great prospect out of high school (#2LB), but was injured last season after just 2 games. If he avoids the injury bug, Simon could be All Conference. The secondary returns all 4 starters including Jason Allen who could have gone pro. Allen will be moved back to CB. Blue-chipper Demetrice Morley (#7DB) was a five-star recruit out of Miami (how Phillip Fulmer pried him away from the trio of Florida schools is beyond me) and should lock up one of the safety spots by midseason. The Volunteer defense has a lot of talented players. Along with defensive coordinator John Chavis, one of the best in college football, this could be a scary defense in 2005.

Prediction
Great offense, loaded defense, good depth everywhere, great coaching staff, too bad the schedule is a killer. I would love to see the Vols go undefeated this year, but at Florida and at LSU in late September looks very scary right now. Even if Tennessee goes into October undefeated, games against Georgia and at Alabama are toss-ups. Oh and don’t slight their season opener opponents UAB, which is no cupcake of a team. I am also worried about disciplinary issues and injury issues. It seems like a constant theme that the program revolves around players getting into trouble. I also wonder if the training staff should get a make-over due to massive injuries to the players in the past 5 years. It just seems like Tennessee catches the plague every other year, which brings up the question of the athletes’ conditioning. For the Vols to make it to this years Rose Bowl (national championship game), they’ll need at least two Clint Stoerners from their opponents.

VANDERBILT



Offense
One name comes up when you talk about the 2005 Vanderbilt Commodores football team, JAY CUTLER. A lot of writers and scouts are saying Cutler might be one of the good NFL prospects you never heard of. He has excellent speed and has a prototypical quarterback body (6-4, 225). He also raised his completion percentage from 48.6% as a freshman to 61% as a junior last season. Those might be things scouts look at, but I don’t expect that to turn into performance this year…not on this team. Cutler might go on to make millions in the NFL, but he is getting no help from the rest of the offense. Both leading running backs from last season are gone. Norval McKenzie graduated and Kwane Doster is dead. The line returns some seniors but Cutler’s blind side is composed of 2 players with 2 starts combined in guard Josh Eames (So.) and tackle Ryan King (Sr.). The receivers situation is better since they return 2 of the top 3 from last year. Erik Davis has proven himself over the last 2 years as a dependable target. This offense comes down to Cutler and his leadership abilities. If he acts and plays like the senior leader he is, the offense will gel and overachieve. I guess we, as well as the NFL scouts, will see if that quality is within him.

Defense
Another name comes up for the Vandy Commodores, MOSES OSEMWEGIE. Just like Cutler is the leader of the offense, Osemwegie is an all-conference caliber linebacker on defense. MLB Jonathan Goff is only a sophomore but started the last 4 games as a freshman. If his growth continues, he could be a valuable sidekick to Osemwegie. The question is, “can the D-line be effective enough for the linebackers shine?” The DE position is filled by Chris Booker, who missed the entire 2004 due to injury, and Herdley Harrison, a converted LB. Booker can be a good speed-rusher if he fully recovers from the ACL injury. The secondary is very weak.

Prediction
Every BCS conference has one. The Big Ten has Northwestern, the Big XII has Baylor, the ACC has Duke, the Big East has Rutgers, and for the SEC, it is Vanderbilt. No, we’re not talking about highest average GPA on the football team; we’re talking about the cellar dwellers (although the GPA and losing records might be related). Vandy has 1 winning season in the SEC in 44 years and 22 consecutive losing seasons. It’s hard to expect much from those kind of numbers, but I believe HC Bobby Johnson might turn things around in his 4th season. Johnson was a winner at the Division I-AA level with Furman, and I think he has Vandy geared up for a surprisingly good season. By good, I mean a 5-6 record. Although their record is 2-9 last year, many of those losses were winnable games. I expect luck to shift to Vandy’s side this year. It’s been done before, Gary Barnett at Northwestern and Steve Spurrier at Duke.

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