College Football Preview – Part 4/7, BIG TEN

BIG TEN

I expect this to be a big year for the Big Ten. 4 teams will battle for the conference championship in Iowa, Michigan, Ohio State, and Purdue. Michigan and Ohio State has the most talent while Purdue has an easier schedule and the fact that they lost 5 games last year (see Purdue’s Prediction for more info). I think Iowa Michigan and Ohio State will beat each other up enough for Purdue to sneak in to win the Big Ten. The second tier teams this year will be Penn State, Michigan State, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. Northwestern, Illinois, and Indiana once again wraps up the bottom. Illinois and Indiana are both breaking in new respectable coaches, so I look for them to improve in the next few years.

This should be know as the linebacker conference. AJ Hawk (OSU), Anthony Schlegel (OSU), Bobby Carpenter (OSU), Abdul Hodge (Iowa), Chad Greenway (Iowa), Dan Connor (PSU), Paul Posluszny (PSU), Tim McGarigle (NU), and Pierre Woods (UM) are all capable of winning awards by the end of the year. There are also some very electrifying athletes on offense such as Ted Ginn of Ohio State and Steve Breaston of Michigan, 2 athletes who can change the game in a flash of the eye whether it is on a punt return, reverse, or a reception. There are a wealthy amount of young guns behind center too. Chad Henne had a remarkable freshman year as did Drew Tate. Brandon Kirsch has some high expectations as the 1st year starter at Purdue. It won’t be the Big Ten without an ample of running backs. Michael Hart and Laurence Maroney are both capable of rapping up multiple 200 yard games and are head and shoulders above the other running backs in the conference.

ILLINOIS

Offense
Illinois was pretty much a door mat for the Big Ten. Then in 2001, led by QB Kurt Kittner, they had a 5-game turnaround to go 10-1 and went to the Sugar Bowl. Since that season, Illinois has reverted back to its door mat ways going 1-11 in 2003 and 3-8 last year which led to the firing of head coach Ron Turner. Ron Zook starts anew after a tumultuous tenure at Florida. There will be a QB battle heading into the new regime with Tim Brasic being the mobile QB while Kisan Flakes, Chris Pazan, Billy Garza are more drop-back QBs. Brasic will be the early favorite for having some experience and being the type of mobile QB Zook likes. The focal point on offense will be Pierre Thomas (#32 RB) who had 893 yards, 8 TDs, and an impressive 5.9 ypc last year. EB Halsey is a dependable backup to Thomas having led the team in rushing in 2003. The 2 backs are down right scary if both can remain injury-free for 2005. Due to Thomas and Halsey, true frosh Rashard Mendenhall (#8 RB) might not see any action this year. Due to the QB rotation and injuries, the receiver production was meager. Jason Davis the FB was 2nd on the team in receptions. WR Kendrick Jones had a fine season despite all that having 47 catches. Jones returns as well as DaJuan Warren, a promising sophomore, and Lonnie Hurst, a dependable receiver coming back from injury. Also in the mix is last year’s recruit Derrick McPhearson (#23 WR) who spent last year at Fork Union Military Academy. Melvin Bryant lines up at TE with some speed to burn. The O-line loses a draft pick and an all-conference honorable mention. Guard Matt Maddox moves to center to replace Duke Preston (4th round pick). Martin O’Donnell (#7 OL) is only a sophomore and looks to improve on his 10-start redshirt freshman season.

Defense
The line was simply appalling in 2004 giving up 194 rushing ypg and only recording 12 sacks. 3 starters return this year, and they also add a good player in Ismail Abdunafi (#5JC DL). Chris Norwell moved to the D-line from the O-line and had a fine season last year with 40 tackles. Abdunafi and Norwell should hold down the inside and cut down on that 194 rushing yards allowed per game. Sophomore Xavier Fulton and Scott Moss need to put more pressure on the opposing QB for this line to improve. The Illini loses leading tackler and sack leader Matt Sinclair at LB and also Mike Gawelek and his 73 tackles. So. J Leman does return to build upon a 56-tackle freshman campaign. He will be joined by plenty of youth in redshirt freshman Sam Carson (#23 LB), Remond Willis, and sophomore Anthony Thornhill. A solid secondary returns 3 starters, but loses leader Kelvin Hayden who was a 2nd round NFL draft pick. Justin Harrison and Morris Virgil returns as the leading tacklers at SS and FS respectively. Travis Williams is a solid backup with starting experience. Alan Ball will be joined by speedy Charles Bailey at the cornerback positions. With the returning starters and Coach Ron Zook’s defensive background, this defense should put up much better numbers this year.

Prediction
Ron Zook never got a shot with the Florida fans down in Gainsville. Despite his recruiting efforts, which Florida ranked 7th, 2nd, and 13th in 2004, 2003 and 2002, he never managed less than 4 losses a season. It’s tough to get 10-win seasons when you have to face Tennessee, Georgia, and Florida State on a yearly basis, so I don’t think there’s anything wrong with Zook’s win-loss record at Florida. He inherits a bad team at Illinois, but does have some weapons in Pierre Thomas, EB Halsey, and Kendrick Jones on offense and Justin Harrison and Morris Virgil on defense. There are some tough out of conference games to be played against Rutgers and at California. The Big Ten schedule is also very tough going on the road against 3 top teams in the conference in Iowa, Ohio State, and Purdue. I look for another sub-.500 season until Zook gets the program under his full grasp within 2 or 3 years. I think Zook is a terrific pickup for the Illini and fully believe that he will succeed at Illinois.

INDIANA

Offense
This is an offense depleted of its skilled position players from a year ago. The line comes back in tact with center Chris Jahnke leaving; however, Chris Mangiero is back after starting the first 4 games before getting hurt last year. He will be joined by seniors Brandon Hatcher, Adam Hines, Isaac Sowells, and junior Justin Frye. Sowells is a monster at 6-3, 330 pounds and squats close to 700 pounds! 2 years on the line together should have gelled this unit enough to improve upon the 27 sacks given up last year and only 3.2 yards per carry on the ground. QB Matt LoVecchio graduated, leaving the job to sophomore Blake Powers who saw some action last year. Powers, 6-4 228, is similar in size to Ben Roethlisberger who 1st year head coach Terry Hoeppner had as his QB at Miami (OH). Mike Vlahogeorge and Graeme McFarland are also in the mix at QB. Leading rusher BenJarvus Green-Ellis had 794 yards last year, but transferred to Mississippi during the off season. 2 seniors in Chris Taylor and Yamar Washington will both get playing time at RB this year. Washington had a serious knee injury in 2003 and should be back to full strength for 2005. I believe Indiana will put up solid rushing numbers provided the depth at both RB and OL. Courtney Roby will be missed with 55 catches for 810 yards and 7 TDs in 2004, but senior Jahkeen Gilmore definitely has the ability to be the go-to receiver with his sub-4.4 speed. Marcus Thigpen and Courtney Clency add more speed to the position while James Hardy has a 6-7 frame and soft hands to boot. A drop in production is expected when you lose the school’s all time receiving yards leader in Roby.

Defense
The defense returns 9 starters. Combine that with new defensive coordinators Brian George and Joe Palcic, Indiana should finally see improvement from a defense that allows 5.0 ypc rushing and only having 52 sacks for the previous 3 seasons. Victor Adeyanju, Kenny Kendal, and Ben Ishola are all capable of putting pressure on the QB from the end position. Kyle Killion is the leader of this defense having 107 tackles and 5 sacks as an outside linebacker last year. John Pannozzo moves over from FB to fill the middle LB position while Jake Powers plays on the weak side. The defense gave up 256 passing yards per game last year as one of the worst passing defenses in the nation. 3 starters return to the secondary including young corners Leslie Majors and Tracy Porter, who made Big Ten’s all freshmen team last year. Buster Larkins starterd all 11 games last year and should provide consistency for the pair of sophomores in Majors and Porter. Aaron Mitchell is undersized while Will Meyers is coming back from an injury. The two will battle for the SS position while Will Lumpkins is the senior starter at FS replacing Herana-Daze Jones.

Prediction
Out is Jerry DiNardo, who always seems to be coaching BCS conference door mat teams in Indiana and Vanderbilt, and in is Terry Hoeppner, who helped put the other Miami (of Ohio) on the college football map. Don’t put much hope in an Indiana turnaround for this year due to the lack of position players on offense. Terry Hoeppner will need a few years to transform this into his team. Even Antwaan Randle El couldn’t do better than a 5-6 record at Indiana, so have patience.

IOWA

Offense
It is amazing that Iowa was 10-2 last year despite a non-existent running game (871 yards (2.0 ypc) on the season and 214 of those came in the opener against Kent State!). QB Drew Tate (#18 QB) basically had to put the team on his shoulders being a 1st year starter. All he did was throw for 2,786 yards on 62.1% completion rate and a 20-14 TD-INT ratio, good enough for 1st Team Big Ten. Tate and the Iowa wrapped up 2004 in fine fashion when he hit Warren Holloway for a 56-yard touchdown while time ran out to beat LSU 30-25. The Iowa running backs should provide more support this year for Tate after an unbelievably injury-plagued 2004. Cory Mack was dismissed and Shonn Greene didn’t qualify before the season even started. FB AJ Johnson was suspended for the season. His backup Marcus Schnoor tore his ACL against Kent State while RBs Jermelle Lewis, Albert Young, Champ Davis, and Marques Simmons all got hurt, leaving 6th string RB Sam Brownlee as the leading rusher in 3 games. Simmons returns as the starter with Damian Sims and true frosh Corey Robertson (#30 RB) as his backups. Don’t expect the Hawkeyes to rush for less than 1,000 yards on the season again. Capital One Bowl hero Warren Holloway is gone, but the top 3 receivers return in Clinton Solomon, Ed Hinkel, and TE Scott Chandler. Trey Stross (#24 WR) and Marcus Wilson are this year’s key recruits at WR. The offensive line looked horrible on paper last year, allowing 40 sacks and only paving the way for 2.0 ypc on the ground, but we all know the running backs were all hurt, allowing opposing D-lines to tee-off on Drew Tate. Head coach Kirk Ferentz is a great OL coach and always does a fine job with the line. This year’s line features talented Mike Jones (#2 OL), Brian Ferentz (Kirk’s son), and Mike Elgin as the starters while highly talented Seth Olsen (#47 OL) and Marshal Yanda (#65JC OL) backs them up. This year’s recruits on the OL are one of the best groups in the nation and should be fabulous 2 or 3 years down the line. This group includes Dan Doering (#3 OL), Dace Richardson (#5 OL), Rafael Eubanks (#16 OL), and Kyle Calloway (#70 OL).

Defense
Drew Tate shouldn’t take all the credits for Iowa’s 2004 season. The defense was spectacular for most of the season. They lose 7 starters including a pair of all-conference linemen in Tim Roth and Jonathan Babineaux, a pair of NFL draft picks. All 4 starters are gone, and almost all of the backups are underclassmen. At this point, all I can say is that Richard Kittrell (#32 DL), George Eshareturi, Matt Kroul, Kenny Iwebema, Ted Bentler, Ryan Bain, and Alex Kanellis will be in the mix for the line, since there aren’t any experience here. Iwebema will be counted on to make an immediate impact as a pass rusher. With this young line, the linebackers will be counted on for leadership, and there are plenty of talent with leading tacklers Abdul Hodge and Chad Greenway who had 116 and 113 tackles last year respectively. Both are all-conference for the past 2 years. The secondary returns 3 starters including 2 senior cornerbacks. Jovon Johnson and Antwan Allen both had 4 picks last year. Marcus Paschal returns at SS as the 3rd leading tackler on the team last year, but will have to battle a torn ACL suffered in the bowl game last year. If he can’t comeback in time, Miguel Merrick and Charles Godfrey will be the safeties.

Prediction
Sometimes the numbers just don’t tell the whole story. Iowa finished 117th in rushing in Division I-A last year, yet was an amazing 10-2. In their only 2 losses, the Hawkeyes only had 354 yards. Despite only 168 yards against Penn State, they won with the bizarre score of 6-4. In another game against Minnesota, the defense gave up 337 yards on the ground alone, yet was able to muster out a 29-27 win. Call it luck or the Ferentz-factor, either way, Iowa is the anti-Purdue, in other words, they find a way to win close games. The offensive output should increase this year, but the D-line is very vulnerable. Every one of their in-conference opponents are capable of putting up 200 yards on the ground against Iowa, especially Minnesota and Michigan. Both of those games are at home, so at least that helps a little. Faced with one of the tougher schedules in the Big Ten, I expect Iowa to lose at least 3 games this year, but this should be a year when both the O-line and D-line matures for 2006.

MICHIGAN

Offense
After starting QB John Navarre and starting RB Chris Perry departed after the 2003 season, 2004 looked very cloudy for the Wolverines. No doubt, there were QBs and RBs battling for playing time during the first few weeks, but after the dust was settled, two true frosh had very good seasons as the starters in QB Chad Henne (#1 QB) and RB Mike Hart (#11 RB). Henne grasped the college game very fast and is expected to do great things in just his 2nd year. His backup was last year’s starter (but never played due to injury), Matt Gutierrez (#12 QB) who has more speed. You would think a running back with 1455 yards from the previous season will be a lock at starter; however, this is not the case for Mike Hart. He will have the upper hand in winning the starting RB job, but will have to fend off true frosh phenom Kevin Grady (#2 RB). Grady is 230 pounds, but has 4.5 speed. Also in the mix is last year’s 2nd leading rusher Max Martin (#21 RB). With the departure of All-American Braylon Edwards, there will definitely be a drop off in talent, but Jr. Steve Breaston, who is already a great return man, and So. Adrian Arrington (#10 WR) look to become the next generation of great Michigan WRs. Sr. Jason Avant (#10 WR) is a seasoned receiver who will be counted on for big plays and leadership, especially early in the season. A top recruit WR will join the team this year in Mario Manningham (#6 WR), but I don’t expect him to see much time on the field (possibly redshirt). The offense will have another great line to work with despite losing All-American David Baas. Matt Lentz and Adam Stenavich are a pair of seniors who belong with the best of the OLs in the country. Jake Long made 2nd team all-conference despite being only a redshirt freshman last year.

Defense
The line will be strong this year led by seniors Gabe Watson (#5 DL) and Pat Massey (#7 DL). Watson is a tremendous NFL prospect who demands double teaming with his 6-4, 331 frame. Massey is a good rusher on the end who had 5 sacks last year. LaMarr Woodley (#2 LB) and Pierre Woods (#9 DL) are two players who can play either the end or outside linebacker positions. Both are good pass rushers as Woodley had 4 sacks and 12 tackles for loss last year while Woods had 7 sacks in 2003 before missing much of last year due to injuries. Scott McClintock (#9 LB) will be the seasoned veteran returning starter at the MLB position. He is good against the run and also covers well in passing situations. Prescott Burgess (#1 DB) is another blue chipper out of high school. He has been converted to the linebacker position after switching to the 3-4. There are also several blue chippers backing up the front seven such as Marques Slocum (#6 OL), Terrance Taylor (#11 DL), Jeremy Van Alstyne (#17 LB), Will Johnson (#29 DL), William Paul (#21 DL), Eugene Germany (#15 LB), and James McKinney (#13 DL) on the defensive line and Shawn Crable (#2 DL), Chris Graham (#30 LB), and Brandon Logan (#24 LB) for linebackers. Marlin Jackson and Ernest Shazor are gone, leaving 2 huge voids to fill on defense. Ryan Mundy (#5 DB)and Leon Hall (#23 DB) are back with their 21 combined starts last year at FS and CB respectively. Like the other positions, there is a plethora of talent in Morgan Trent (#19 WR), Charles Stewart (#26 DB), Darnell Hood (#33 RB), Anton Campbell (#33 RB), Brandon Harrison (#19 DB), and Antonio Bass (#22 DB).

Prediction
Do you want an interesting fact? Michigan has lost its 1st road game of the season for the last 5 years! They lost twice to Notre Dame (2002 and 2004), Oregon in 2003, Washington in 2001, and UCLA in 2000. Obviously, the Michigan AD is aware of this situation and did not schedule an away non-conference game this year. The Wolverines kick off conference play with two tough road games at Wisconsin and at Michigan State; both are games in which Michigan can be upset. There is more certainty on offense going into the season compared to last year, but the defense is somewhat questionable. Despite having tremendous talent on the DL, Michigan only had 21 sacks last year. The pass rush was almost nonexistent in the last 4 games having only 3 sacks. Part of the reason is that the final 4 opponents of ’04 averaged 257 rushing yards per game against Michigan, which is another doubt coming into the season, whether or not the run defense has the stamina to last an entire season. The rushing D was solid at the beginning of last season giving up only 71.6 yards per game over 8 games. In that stretch, only 2 teams managed more than 100 yards on UM. The DBs are also another concern for Michigan. A CB and SS need to step up and try to replace Marlin Jackson and Ernest Shazor, which are tough tasks to do. Despite these issues, there is no doubt that the offense will be solid and that the defense has enough talent to fix those problems. Don’t make the mistake of taking Michigan out of your national title contender conversations.

MICHIGAN STATE

Offense
With a mobile QB, the Spartans were able to rush for an impressive 2,862 yards on 5.7 ypc in 2004. 4 players rushed for over 600 yards, and 3 of them returns for this year, the only loss being DeAndra Cobb to the NFL. Jason Teague and Jehuu Caulcrick are back as dependable runners but lack the break away speed. Teague has the average RB body while Caulcrick is a load at 240 pounds. True frosh Javon Ringer (#27 RB) might see some time because of his 4.35 speed. QB Drew Stanton (#16 QB) had 687 rushing yards and 1600 more passing in 2004. He split time last year with Damon Dowdell and Stephen Reaves, both of whom are gone this year, so Stanton will be the definite starter. Backing him up will be redshirt freshman Brian Hoyer (#23 QB) and Domenic Natale, both of whom could see action provided Stanton was injury-prone in the past. Stanton will have a solid group of receivers to work with in Matt Trannon (#16 TE), Kyle Brown (#6 WR), Aaron Alexander (#20 QB), and Agim Shabaj. Trannon is a basketball player with good size and can be a good NFL prospect. Brown is a physical receiver with speed to burn. The line returns 3 starters on the left side while prospect Roland Martin (#2 OL) could fill the RG position as a redshirt freshman. The line was the Spartan’s strength last year paving the way for the running game and only allowing 8 sacks all year. This year should be no different with a mobile QB in Stanton.

Defense
The defense loses several impact players in Ronald Stanley, Jason Harmon, Roderick Maples, and Kevin Vickerson. Clifton Ryan and Brandon McKinney returns after allowing 172 rushing yards a game in 2004 with only 20 sacks. Domata Peko (#10JC DL) will be battling for the DT position with JC transfer Bobby Jones while Michael Bazemore, Ryan, and Nick Smith look to get into the backfield more often at the end positions. David Herron is a starter at LB who is back for another 90+ tackles season. He will be joined by Kaleb Thornhill and Sir Darean Adams, 2 sophomores looking to gain experience fast. Smith was a safety before being moved to a hybrid SS/LB position by head coach John L. Smith, but as of August 29, Smith was moved back to SS, probably due to the inexperience in the secondary where the lack of experience is the biggest concern. The only returning starter in the secondary, Jaren Hayes, was suspended indefinitely by Coach Smith so Demond Williams will take his spot while Aston Watson has the other CB position. Greg Cooper (#11 DB) won the job at SS over sophomore Michael Bell, while Cole Corey backs up Smith. If Hayes can’t return to the secondary in the near future, this could be a long and ugly season for the Spartans.

Prediction
Michigan State definitely has a season to look forward to with lots of excitement on offense. However, if the defense doesn’t mature in time, there could be a lot of shoot outs for Spartan fans. A key to success is the turnover margin. Michigan State had only 1 season with a plus turnover margin in the last 5 years. Not surprisingly, that was the year they had the best record within the 5 years, going 8-4 in 2003. The September schedule is fairly easy with a potential to go 4-0; however, it will be easy to overlook games at Notre Dame and at Illinois, since Michigan and Ohio State follow those games. The home game against Michigan will be huge. Despite all the national title talks by Michigan, I won’t be surprised if the Spartans pull a big upset against the Wolverines. I’m marking MSU down for a bowl appearance this year since it would be unusual for John L. Smith to go bowl-less for 2 straight years.

MINNESOTA

Offense
Head Coach Glen Mason has established Minnesota as having one of the best running systems in the nation. For 4 straight years, Minnesota has averaged more than 200 rushing yards per game. The Golden Gophers had 2 players rush for more than 1,000 yards in both 2003 and 2004. This year, RB Laurence Maroney will have the ball to himself with the departure of Marion Barber III. Maroney combined for 2,534 yards in his first 2 years and 22 TDs. I expect him to have at least 1,700 yards this year. He will get a lot of help from a small (no one over 300 pounds), but effective line including 1st team all-conference C Greg Eslinger and G Mark Setterstrom. The line paved the way for 5.4, 5.5, 4.7, and 5.1 ypc the previous 4 years, and should duplicate those numbers again this year. Bryan Cupito will start at QB although it doesn’t make much sense with Cupito being a pocket QB; however, the more mobile Adam Ernst gave up football due to injuries while John Carlson moved to DB. Mike Maciejowski will be Cupito’s backup. Maciejowski is a good leader who learns fast and can be the starter in the near future. 4 of the top receiving yards leaders return for 2005, but then again, this is Minnesota where they practically run on all 4 downs. Ernie Wheelwright and Jared Ellerson are a pair of receivers capable of going deep to stretch the defense. If needed, this is a receiving corps that is capable of scoring fast or run the 2 minute drill. Provided that QB Cupito has a strong arm, it’s not completely ridiculous to see Minnesota run for 300 yards and pass for 300 yards in the same game this year.

Defense
Despite having one of the best offenses in the Big Ten, the defense is porous if not down right awful in 2004. This is the defense that gave up 238 on the ground to Indiana and 372 passing yards to Illinois State! Sack leader Darrell Reid is gone with his 7.5 sacks, so either Keith Lipka or Eric Clark needs to step up with their game. Mark Losli and Anthony Montgomery should be fine in the middle against the run provided they combine for 52 starts at DT. LB Kyle McKenzie returns as the leading tackler last year. He was pushed by Leland Jones during the spring but his experience won the job in the end. Mario Reese will line up at LB this year despite playing as a DE last year. He could be used to pressure the QB in situations. John Shevlin has great speed being recruited as a DB. He had a good game in the Music City Bowl which should carry over into this season. There are also some real talents on the bench with Jones and Alex Daniels (#34 LB). Trumaine Banks is back as CB. He will be joined by Jamal Harris who saw time as a redshirt freshman last year. Last year’s starter at SS Terrance Campbell will be playing behind Brandon Owens who has 4.5 speed. John Pawielski is back as the FS and is very good against the run.

Prediction
Last year’s regular season ended in a bad fashion, losing to Iowa 27-29 when the Golden Gophers out rushed the Hawkeyes 337 to 6. Howevery, they put out a good effort in defeating Alabama in the Music City Bowl. Pretty much the same is expected this year for Minnesota. I don’t think they can touch the top 4 teams in the conference in Michigan, Ohio State, Purdue, and Iowa, where Minnesota has to play all 4. For the optimists, at least Minnesota controls their own destiny. I think Minnesota will be a fun team to watch with Laurence Maroney possibly chasing 2,000 yards. It will also be interesting to see how much passing Mason will do with a talented QB and receiving corps.

NORTHWESTERN

Offense
Brett Basanez (#24 QB) is a senior quarterback who is capable of doing some fine things with 3 of his top receivers back. Despite a career full of injuries and inconsistent play, Basanez needs just 529 yards to surpass Zak Kustok as Northwestern’s all time leading passer. He could be magnificent at times, throwing for 513 yards against TCU, but awful at other times, 1 for 15 with 3 INTs against Air Force in 2003. Mark Philmore, Kim Thompson, and Jonathan Fields all return at WR so Basanez will definitely have this group of experienced WRs to throw to. There are also depth at the position with last year’s starter Shaun Herbert and 6th leading receiver Brandon Horn coming off the bench. Brandon Robertson lines up at RB being only a sophomore. He beats out Terrell Jordan and Tyrell Sutton (#24 RB) who will be the main backup. This is a good line returning 2 from a squad that helped to 4.6 ypc and only 12 sacks. Zach Strief is a good talent with a 6-7, 335 pound frame.

Defense
DE Loren Howard (#33 DL) was a tackling machine at the end position but was hurt last year. He had 81 tackles as a true frosh, which is just unheard of for the DL. Barry Cofield also returns, but Luis Castillo (1st round NFL draft pick) is gone. Trevor Schultz and Corey Wootton are the other 2 starters on the DL. Leading tackler Tim McGarigle comes back with his NCAA-leading 151 tackles at MLB. The senior will be joined by experienced LB Nick Roach and Adam Kadela, who was injured for most of last season. The secondary was awful at the beginning of last year, but was able to hold Penn State, Michigan, and Illinois all under 200 yards passing towards the end. It would be a good finish leading into the off season if not for Hawaii, who torched the Wildcats for 405 passing yards. Herschel Henderson and Marquice Cole will be the starting CBs with Jeff Backes suffering shoulder injuries. Reggie McPherson and Frederic Tarver will be the FS and SS respectively.

Prediction
Randy Walker did a great job in 2000 followed by 2 sub-.500 seasons. Northwester is coming off of back-to-back 6-6 seasons which is really better than what it seems. No body would expect the Wildcats to win 6 games last year, but all they did was upset Ohio State and Purdue. They were in 4 overtime games last year, winning 3 of them. I don’t expect people to overlook Northwestern this year, and you can bet Purdue and Ohio State will remember the losses last year when the Wildcats travel to West Lafayette and Columbus.

OHIO STATE

Offense
After Craig Krenzel’s departure, two QBs, Justin Zwick (#7 QB) and Troy Smith (#31 QB), who he battled for the starting job in 2002 were fighting for his job in 2004. It was the classic case of the 6-4-NFL-type-gunslinger (Zwick) vs. the Michael-Vick-slashing-runner (Smith). Zwick won the starting job, but poor play and injuries opened the doors for Smith who did nothing but run and win. Smith was suspended for the bowl game, which forced Zwick to play through pain in order to preserve Todd Boeckman’s redshirt status. I think it will be another two-headed-monster this year with Smith getting most of the playing time; however, the coaching staff will not forget about what Zwick did for them last year and put him in a few key situations. Smith will be suspended for the 1st game of this season, so Zwick will open the season. Much of the ruckus at the RB position over the past 2 years has been the lack of Maurice Clarett. Now that Clarett finally got his wish after being drafted by the Denver Broncos in the 3rd round, we can finally move forward. Despite not having Clarett for 2003 and 2004, there were still a lot of talent for Ohio State at RB in Lydell Ross (#18 RB), Maurice Hall (#8 RB), and Antonio Pittman (#19 RB). Ross had a respectable 826 yards in 2003, but the trio were nevertheless labeled as underachievers after a 2004 season where no one rushed for more than 500 yards. Ross and Hall departed, leaving Pittman to battle redshirt freshman Erik Haw (#18 RB) for the job. Pittman will start the season due to his experience, but I expect Haw to be the starter by the time of the Michigan game. Haw is simply a tremendous blend of size and speed at 6-1, 210 lbs and 4.21 speed. True frosh Maurice Wells (#11 RB) will also be in the mix. The receiver position is very talented in Santonio Holmes, the dependable possession receiver, and Teddy Ginn (#1 DB), the raw, but speedy game-breaker. Holmes made 2nd team all-conference last year despite the QB shuffles. I expect him to improve this year with some QB stability. Ginn started the year as a DB in 2004, but it is undeniable that his shifty speed and vision is much better used on the offensive side of the football. It seems like every time Ginn touches the ball, he’s taking it to the house. This year, you can expect to see a ton of WR screens, reverses, direct snaps to Ginn, flea-flickers, and whatever other ways to get the ball to Ginn, who is also a dangerous punt returner (25.6 ave and 4 TDs). Almost the entire OL returns including team captains C Nick Mangold and RG Rob Sims. The LT needs a replacement, likely So. Steve Rehring, but two blue chippers are breathing down his neck in redshirt freshman Kyle Mitchum (#6 OL) and true frosh Alex Boone (#2 OL). This offense returns 9 starters from 2004, so it will definitely be consistent. Though, I wouldn’t expect them to be putting up 40 points per game, a feat the Buckeyes only accomplished once in the last 2 years (and that’s in 3 OTs).

Defense
Like the Offense, the defense returns 9 starters, as well as their top 11 tacklers from 2004! The star of the defense is senior linebacker AJ Hawk, the captain and leader of this team for the past 2 years. Hawk has been a tackling machine the past 2 seasons with 106 in 2003 and 141 in 2004. He should go down as one of the great Buckeye linebackers along with Chris Spielman, Pepper Johnson, and Andy Katzenmoyer. Bobby Carpenter and Anthony Schlegel are the other 2 linebackers and also are the 2nd and 3rd leading tacklers on the team. Without a question, this trio of linebackers are all tackling machines and the best unit in the country. Other than the three, their backups might be starters at any other college in America. John Kerr is a transfer from Indiana who had 114 tackles as a true frosh! Mike D’Andrea (#1 LB) was a tremendous recruit out of high school, but missed most of last year due to a torn knee. This prototypical linebacker needs a fine senior year to showcase himself to the NFL. Marcus Freeman (#8 LB) has a ton of talent, but unfortunately will have to pay his dues by sitting on the bench as a sophomore. Chad Hoobler (#4 TE) is new to the position in his 2nd year. It will be crucial for the defensive line to keep tackles off of this talented corps of linebackers. With 3 starters returning, they will have no problem doing that. There isn’t a beefy clog on the line (all are less than 300 pounds), but Marcus Green, Quinn Pitcock (#11 DL), and Mike Kudla (#23 LB) will make up for their size with experience. Either Jay Richardson or David Patterson (#11 DL) will fill in the other end position, but regardless of who is starting, there isn’t a lot of pass-rushing ability on this line. Cornerback Ashton Youboty (#30 DB) is back after breaking up 14 passes and picking off 4 others last year. Nate Salley is the senior co-captain on defense and hits hard from the FS position. SS Donte Whitner (#9 DB) was 4th on the team in tackles last year in only 6 starts. The problem will be finding a 2nd CB. Ted Ginn was starting at CB last year, but it is unlikely for him to play both ways. Tyler Everett (#24 DB) will start in this position, but I look for EJ Underwood (#17 DB), Sirjo Welch (#18 DB), and Brandon Underwood (#28 DB) to get playing time as well.

Prediction
Never underestimate a team that returns 18 of 22 starters. Kicker Mike Nugent will be missed sorely and is possibly the biggest loss to this team. Nugent has been to Ohio State what Adam Vinatieri is to the New England Patriots. I predict the Buckeyes to lose at least one game on a missed field goal this season. The non-conference slate is no walk-in-the-park this year. Although all three are home games, Miami (OH), Texas, and San Diego State are all tough opponents. Teams were torching the Buckeye secondary late in the 2004 season. I expect Miami (OH) to exploit that weakness with QB Josh Betts who had 3495 passing yards and 24 TDs last year. The Texas vs. Ohio State game will be the 1st clash of the titans in 2005. It will be interesting to see if Ohio State’s tackling machines on defense can contain the Houdini-esque Vince Young. San Diego State had Michigan upset last year only to miss 2 field goals late in the game and lost by 3. In their Big Ten scheduling, Ohio State misses 2 of the better teams in Purdue and Wisconsin. I think Ohio State is solid on both offense and defense, but lacks the big-play ability on both sides of the ball. The offense is another classic Jim Tressel team; one that does barely enough to win. The defense won’t put too much pressure on the opposing passer, has a questionable secondary, and wasn’t all that impressive against the run (allowing 130 yards per game in 2004) despite having wave after wave of tremendous tacklers. But those aren’t even the biggest questions Ohio State needs to answer in order to win the national title, the biggest question is how are they going to replace kicker Mike Nugent? I don’t think anyone will disagree when I say Nugent is as important as any special teams player are to their team in the last few years. The lack of his presence will be felt this year in close games. No matter what you say, it seems like Jim Tressel always has the ability to win close games. In his 4 years at Ohio State, he is 11-3 in games decided by less than 7 points. I think a large part of that and the national championship has to do with the talent that John Cooper recruited. We’ll see how he does with his players in this, his 5th, season.

PENN STATE

Offense
Zach Mills is gone at QB, leaving Michael Robinson as the most experienced QB and Anthony Morelli (#6 QB) the arm of the future. Robinson has great speed and a strong arm, but put up horrible numbers at QB. He also played receiver where he led the team in reception yards. I think WR is the most suitable position for Robinson while Morelli starts at QB; however, Robinson beat out Morelli for the starting job out of the spring. Tony Hunt led the team with 777 rushing yards last year when Austin Scott and Rodney Kinlaw were unable to perform due to various reasons including injuries and missing team meetings. Both Scott and Kinlaw are back this year to push Hunt for playing time. This unit should be solid. Hunt led the team in receptions, which goes to say how ineffective the receiving corps was last year. If Robinson moves to WR, this would be a very good group with Mark Rubin returning for his sophomore season and blue chip athlete Derrick Williams (#1 DB) likely to start as a true frosh. Williams has been compared to Ted Ginn with his 4.24 speed. The offensive line is composed of 5 returning starters who were all very highly touted recruits out of high school in C Ez Smith (#13 OL), RG Tyler Reed (#10 OL), LG Charles Rush (#4 OL), RT John Wilson (#28 OL), and LT Levi Brown (#47 DL). They will definitely improve upon the 3.9 ypc with 3 capable RBs returning this year.

Defense
The defensive line was pretty good against the run last year, yielding only 3.2 ypc, but only recorded 19 sacks all year. The line returns all 4 starters for the 2nd straight year and should once again be dominant in run defense, but ends Tamba Hali (#13 DL) and Matthew Rice (#34 DL) need to put more pressure on opposing QBs. This is yet another great Big Ten linebacking corps with starters Paul Posluszny (#32 LB), Dan Connor (#3 LB), and Tim Shaw, with reserves JR Zwierzynski (#16 RB), Tyrell Sales (#17 OL), Dontey Brown (#21 LB), and true frosh Jerome Hayes (#18 LB). Posluszny led the team in tackles including 12 tackles for loss in a breakout year in 2004. Dan Connor lived up to his hype, recording 85 tackles in only 4 starts. Despite injuries, Shaw had 50 tackles in limited playing time. The secondary gave up only 162 passing yards a game and had an amazing 5-16 TD-INT ratio, despite the front 7 only getting 19 sacks. 3 starters return plus Chris Harrell, who had 49 tackles in 2003, returns after missing all of last year. Alan Zemaitis brings his 4.3 speed back for his senior season as the top CB. His counterpart will be Anwar Phillips who had 10 passes broken up and 4 INTs last year as most teams picked on him rather than Zemaitis. Both are all-conference caliber athletes. Blue chipper Justin King (#4 DB) is a true frosh who might play CB or WR. Calvin Lowry (#28 DB) started all the games at SS last year and will complement Harrell at the FS spot. If this defense can put some pressure on the QB with around 30 sacks, it could be as much of a shut-down defense as there is in college football.

Prediction
It seems like yesterday that Penn State was going undefeated with Ki-Jana Carter and Kerry Collins, when the Nittany Lions whipped my Tennessee Volunteers in the Fiesta Bowl in the early 90s. Now it seems like they went from powerhouse to door mat in just a flash of the eye going 7-16 in the last 2 seasons. Could this be the year that Joe Pa brings Penn State back to glory? With a defense like this, anything is possible, just ask the 2002 Ohio State Buckeyes. The Lions play an easy schedule to open the season, facing South Florida, Cincy, and Central Michigan at home before opening Big Ten play. The back-to-back-to-back games against Minnesota, Ohio State, and Michigan will be huge. I think if Penn State can 2 of those games, their season would be considered a success. I even think they are capable of winning 9 games if, and only if Michael Robinson is moved to WR while Anthony Morelli starts at QB. I expect Penn State to be in every game for at least 3 quarters due to their defense.

PURDUE

Offense
Despite the departure of NFL draft pick QB Kyle Orton, this will be another offensively explosive Purdue team. Brandon Kirsch (#27 QB) is an experienced quarterback who didn’t just play mop-up minutes in the past. In 94 attempts, Kirsch managed to complete 61.7% of his passes for 711 yards, 7 TDs, and only 3 INTs. Backing him up will be Curtis Painter (#29 QB), a redshirt freshman who Joe Tiller is very high on. The strength of the offense will once again be the receivers. Taylor Stubblefield and John Standeford are gone, but returning starters Kyle Ingraham and Dorien Bryant (#11 WR) are more than capable themselves. Ingraham is a 6-9 giant who had 7 touchdowns last year. Bryant is a perfect complement to Ingraham being 5-10, 175 with 4.4 speed. Other contributors at WR include JC transfer Brian Hare, a dangerous deep threat (26.0 yards per catch in 2004), Ray Williams, and Kevin Noel (#25 WR). True frosh Selwyn Lymon (#11 WR) is the star of the future who has speed and size. With all this talent at WR, the leading receiver for 2005 might be TE Charles Davis (#22 TE) who is a sure-handed receiver and also a good 6-6 260 pound blocker. Jerod Void will spearhead the running game, but do expect him to split time with Brandon Jones. Void was solid last year, but only averaged 3.9 yards per carry. Redshirt freshman Kory Sheets has the homerun speed as the 3rd string back. The offensive line was good but not great last year; however, considering their youth, it was a pretty good season. Sophomore Jordan Grimes played as a true freshman, the first one to do so for Joe Tiller. Sean Sester is a redshirt freshman who might also play a lot of minutes, so expect some inconsistencies this year.

Defense
The Boilermakers are picked as the dark horse national title contenders by many due to their 11 returning starters on defense. The D-line was very young last year, but only gave up 3.1 rushing yards per carry, which is extremely up to satisfaction. DE Ray Edwards (#19 LB) led the team with 8 sacks last year while Anthony Spencer had 7.5 on the other side. The presence of these two talented ends means Rob Ninkovich, who had 4 sacks in one game last year, can only come off the bench. Brandon Villarreal and Brent Grover (#10 LB) are both excellent clogs against the run despite their less-than-prototypical size. This year’s class includes JB Paxson (#10 DL) and Jared Zwilling (#40 DL). Purdue did a good job replacing all 3 linebackers. George Hall stepped in at MLB and had 92 tackles. Stanford Keglar was excellent as a redshirt freshman starting all 12 games and had 61 tackles. Bobby Iwuchukwu and Cliff Avril were also contributors. This year’s group should be better with the returning experience and also added a super talent in Kyle Williams (#5 LB) who didn’t qualify at Iowa last year and ended up at Purdue. Brian Hickman and Paul Long are the starting CBs, but neither are very good, resulting in the Boilermakers giving up 240 passing yards a game last year. Long is only a sophomore so there is still room to grow. Fabian Martin might be counted on at corner. Bernard Pollard at SS led the team in tackles last year and has tons of experience starting since he was a true frosh.

Prediction
This is the dark horse for the Rose Bowl for several reasons. First, all the starters on defense return and 7 more return on offense. Second, the schedule looks very favorable, missing both Michigan and Ohio State for their conference games. Third, Purdue has the magical 7-5 record from last year. The 1997 Arizona Wildcats were 7-5 before going 12-1 in 1998; 2000 national champion Oklahoma Sooners were 7-5 in 1999; the 1999 Washington Huskies went 7-5 in 1999 only to turn in a 11-1 2000 campaign capped off with a Rose Bowl win; the 2002 national champion Ohio State Buckeyes were 7-5 in 2001; the Iowa Hawkeyes were 7-5 in 2001 before the stunning 11-1 regular season turnaround in 2002; the USC Trojans were 6-5 in the 2001 regular season before going 36-3 in the next 2 years including 2 national titles; the LSU Tigers were 8-5 in 2002 before winning a share of the title in 2003; the Auburn Tigers were 8-5 in 2003 before going 13-0 in 2004; the Virginia Tech Hokies were 8-5 in 2003 before winning the ACC title in their first year in the conference in 2004. Getting my drift? Better watch out for 5-loss teams based on these records. Purdue needs to concentrate on improving their pass defense which gave up way too many big plays in 2004. Pressure on the quarterback this year will improve which will directly affect the secondary performance. They won’t face any gunslinger quarterbacks other than Iowa’s Drew Tate and Notre Dame’s Brady Quinn, another reason why the passing defense should improve. The key games are road games at Minnesota and Wisconsin and the home game against Iowa; however, look out for the trip into the desert against Arizona. As you know, I think this is the Wildcats’ breakout year and could do so at Purdue’s expense. Another key issue is winning close games. Last year, Purdue got off to a 5-0 start before losing the next 4 games by 3, 2, 3, and 2 points. They have a great kicker in Ben Jones, who should help lift them in close games this year.

WISCONSIN

Offense
John Stocco had a steady but unimpressive 1st season as the starting QB. His inconsistency at the end of last year opened up the QB competition this year with sophomore Tyler Donovan and redshirt freshman Bryan Savage both in the mix. Anthony Davis had a ton of talent but was hurt most of the time in the last 2 seasons. He is gone this year and leaves the job for Brian Calhoun (#20 RB), who you might remember as part of the talented Colorado Buffaloes backfield in 2003. The sprinter has excellent speed either on a handoff or on a reception. Booker Stanley is the returning leading rusher on the team with 350 yards last year, but will mainly be used as a backup this year. Brandon Williams is the go-to receiver after hauling in at least 40 passes in all 3 years he’s been here. Owen Daniels is the next best receiver being the senior tight end who was converted from a QB. Jonathan Orr is another dependable WR who had a fabulous 2003 season with 842 receiving yards. The line was fairly impressive last year giving up only 22 sacks; however, 16 of the 22 came in the last 4 games including a season high of 7 in the bowl game against Georgia. The losses are heavy on the OL this year, but returns team leader C Donovan Raiola and NFL prospect Joe Thomas (#12 OL). There are potentially 2 freshmen who might get significant playing time in redshirt freshman Kraig Urbik and true frosh Andy Kemp (#13 OL).

Defense
How do you replace 4 NFL draft picks on the D-line alone? You don’t. Erasmus James was probably the most dominant defensive end in college football last year when he was healthy who is playing in the NFL now. There are some green talents on the line this year, most notably sophomores Nick Hayden (#14 DL) and Justin Ostrowski (#5 DL). Dontez Sanders leads a good linebacking unit which also includes Andy Crooks and Mark Zalewski. Sanders and Zalewski started every game last year. Crooks was a true frosh who started 5 games and should improve this year. High school phenom Travis Beckum (#4 LB) might play this year despite the talent and depth of the position. The secondary only returns 1 starter in Brett Bell (#10 DB) who plays cornerback. There aren’t much to be said about this defensive unit since they lost so much during the off season. I’m pretty sure someone will step up by the end of the season, but it is hard to say who right now.

Prediction
2004 ended in a sour note with a 3 game losing streak after beginning the season 9-0; however, it was still a nice turnaround from the 19-18 records over the previous 3 years. 2005 will be head coach Barry Alvarez’s last season as head coach who will remain the athletic director at Wisconsin. Bret Bielema is being tagged as the replacement who is the current defensive coordinator. He is familiar with the Big Ten after 9 seasons as an assistant at Iowa before going to Kansas State where he was the DC before coming to Wisconsin. This might be a down year for the badgers and it might take a few years for the program to bounce back due to coaching changes. I don’t expect Bielema to pull a Pete Carroll or Larry Coker or Jim Tressel since Wisconsin isn’t quite the recruiting hotbed as USC, Miami, and Ohio State are. Anyways, back to this year, a tough schedule from day one when Bowling Green’s high-octane offense comes to town. BG quarterback Omar Jacobs is on many people’s Heisman Trophy watch list. The Big Ten schedule doesn’t bet any easier, starting with Michigan and ending with Iowa, albeit both are at home. I don’t expect Wisconsin to challenge for the Big Ten title this year, but they will definitely upset one of the teams going for that honor in Michigan, Purdue, and Iowa.