College Football Preview – Part 6/7, Predictions

PRESEASON PREDICTIONS

Due to time restraints, I won’t be able to preview the ACC. In a nutshell, it’s going to be a 3 horse race among Virginia Tech, Miami, and Florida State. Miami has the defense, but offensive instability plus the fact they play 2 huge road games to launch the season will cripple them for the rest of the season. Virginia Tech also has 2 road games to open the season, but against much weaker opponents. I’m still not sold on Marcus Vick, but since they get Miami at home, I give them the edge right now for winning their division. Florida State is also breaking in a new QB in Xavier Lee, but RB Leon Washington and Lorenzo Booker could both break 1,000 yards rushing this year. Ernie Sims and AJ Nicholson are big time linebackers who will anchor the defense. I don’t think any of the 3 will challenge for the national title this year, but I like Florida State as the ACC Champs due to their running game and the fact they play in the weaker division in the ACC.

With apologies to the ACC fans, let’s get to my preseason predictions. I will list my top 15 going into the season. This list is based almost completely on talent and partly on the AP and coaches polls already out. So here it goes.

1. USC – I think it is consensus that USC is the preseason #1 after back-to-back national championships. The offense returns intact minus Norm Chow; however, Chow’s protégé, Steve Sarkisian is back as the co-OC. Matt Leinart is a Heisman trophy winning QB backed up by 2 blue chippers in John David Booty and Mark Sanchez. Reggie Bush was a Heisman finalist while LenDale is a bruising every down back. Steve Smith, Dwayne Jarrett, Whitney Lewis, Dominique Byrd, Patrick Turner…the list just goes on and on for pass catchers. The defense will miss the 4 All-Americans who are gone, but this is USC, they have blue chip talents filling those spots. Darnell Bing is the best safety in the country as is Tom Malone for the punter position.

2. Texas – Great QB in Vince Young, great OL with NFL talents Jonathan Scott and Justin Blalock, great DL with Rod Wright, Larry Dibbles, Tim Crowder, and Frank Okam, great LB in Aaron harris and Eric Hall, great DB in Cedric Griffin and Michael Huff. Now all Texas has to do is develop a passing game, find a RB, and beat OU. Those won’t be problems considering Young can chunk the ball 75-80 yards. There are a healthy amount of young backs in Ramonce Taylor, Jamaal Charles, Henry Melton, Jerrell Wilkerson, and Michael Houston who are looking to take over next year if not this. And beating OU, that’s just a matter of time right?

3. Tennessee – If Erik Ainge is the next Peyton Manning, then Gerald Riggs will be his Jamal Lewis. With a receiving corps many call the best in Tennessee history, which is saying a lot, and an O-line full of behemoths, this unit can gun it out with anyone in the country outside of USC. The scary part is that the defense is even better than the offense. The defense returns 9 starters and has 5 All-American candidates in DE Parys Haralson, DT Jesse Mahelona, LB Kevin Simon, LB Omar Gaither, and CB Jason Allen.

4. LSU – Nick Saban was an awesome recruiter and it shows with 2005’s LSU roster. They go 3 deep in virtually every position. The receiver duo of Early Doucet and Xavier Carter were prized recruits from last year who could breakout in a big way this year with true frosh Ryan Perrilloux at QB. Kyle Williams and LaRon Landry are the anchors on the defense with other prospects such as Sammy Joseph, Glen Dorsey, and Luke Sanders looking to add experience to their talent.

5. Oklahoma – This is another program that has been building for more than half a decade. Bob Stoops has been doing a fine job recruiting on a national basis. In recent year, Stoops has brought in more high school kids than from the JC ranks. Other than locking up the top in-state talents, OU has also been prying marquee recruits from the state of Texas. Adrian Peterson is the best example, who returns for his sophomore year after being a Heisman finalist last year. Paul Thompson beat out blue chip Rhett Bomar for the QB job. There are some new faces this year, but they’ll be household names pretty soon. To name a few, they are WR Malcolm Kelly, WR Travis Wilson, G Davin Joseph, DE CJ Ah You, LB Rufus Alexander, and CB Chijioke Onynegecha.

6. Michigan – Last year’s freshmen renaissance only means that Michigan will be in the national title talk for the next 2 or 3 years. QB Chad Henne and RB Mike Hart came out of nowhere to have amazing seasons and will be back this year. True frosh Kevin Grady will challenge Hart for some carries as one of the nation’s top recruits this year. WR Steve Breaston is one of a handful of players who can change the game in an instant. There is the always good OL consisting of Matt Lentz, Jake Long and Adam Stenavich. The defense loses some very talented DBs, but DT Gabe Watson, DE Pat Massey, and DE LaMarr Woodley will be the strength of this year’s defense.

7. Florida – QB Chris Leak is as experienced as any QB in college football. Combine that with 1st year head coach Urban Meyer, and you have an offensive explosion waiting to happen. Andre Caldwell and Chad Jackson are a pair of able receivers with true frosh Nyantakyi Boateng waiting in the wings. The defense really gelled toward the end of the season only giving up 34 rushing yards to Florida St. LB Brandon Siler, LB Earl Everett, and CB Demetrice Webb lead that group.

8. Florida State – When starting QB Wyatt Sexton is out for the season this spring, it might be a good thing, giving way to phenom Xavier Lee. Leon Washington and Lorenzo Booker are the 2-headed monster in the backfield. 3 starters return at LB in Ernie Sims, Buster Davis, and AJ Nicholson while CB Antonio Cromartie is a lock-down corner.

9. Ohio State – Ted Ginn will be touching the ball more this year, a lot more. That’s a scary notion not to mention Troy Smith also has ankle-breaking skills at QB. The best linebacking unit (AJ Hawk, Anthony Schlegel, and Bobby Carpenter) in the nation, in my opinion, will be the back bone of the defense. Even the 2nd string LBs could start for any other team in the nation (John Kerr, Mike D’Andrea, and Marcus Freeman). The top 11 tacklers from last year returns, which gives you a pretty good idea about this defense.

10. Miami – QB Kyle Wright, RB Tyrone Moss, and WR Lance Leggett all have one thing in common: all are phenom athletes with little or no experience. LT Eric Winston is one of the best tackles in the country. On the defense, Baraka Atkins and Orien Harris are mountains in the middle of the line while LB Rocky McIntosh, SS Greg Threat, and FS Anthony Reddick can all fly to the ball. Miami is another program located in recruiting hotbeds, so the cupboard is always oozing with talent.

11. Louisville – RB Michael Bush and QB Brian Brohm are the two most exciting 1st year starters there are in college football. Although 1st year starters, both saw significant minutes last year, Bush as a sophomore and Brohm as a true frosh. Bobby Petrino was able to land some top prospects when he took over in 2003, including Brohm and Bush. WR Montrell Jones, C Jason Spitz, LT Travis Leffew, DE Dumervil, DT Montavious Stanley, and LB Brandon Johnson are all seniors who knows how to win.

12. Georgia – Despite heavy losses to the NFL draft, Georgia returns with a power running game featuring backs Thomas Brown, Danny Ware, and Kregg Lumpkin. QB DJ Shockley can also scamper if needed, being a Michael Vick-type QB. TE Leonard Pope, G Max Jean-Gilles, and C Russ Tanner will provide the blocking for the run while Pope is also a great receiving threat. The defense losses David Pollack, Odell Thurman, and Thomas Davis, but should be solid with the remaining 8 starters all returning.

13. Virgina Tech – All the hype is about Marcus Vick starting at QB where his brother Michael played. After a troubled 2004, it remains to be seen if he can flourish as a starter. Mike Imoh and Cedric Humes split time last year at RB and both return this year. Ther are lots of speed at WR with Eddie Royal and Josh Hyman. Darryl Tapp and Jonathan Lewis will anchor a line that gave up only 3.2 ypc last year. Jimmy Williams will be the team’s lock-down corner.

14. Purdue - Purdue returns 18 starters including all 11 on defense. They lose Kyle Orton, but his backup Brandon Kirsch is a talented QB with experience. They have one of the best receiving corps in the nation while the top 2 RBs return.

15. California – Marshawn Lynch scares me to death. The offensive line might be the most underrated group in college football. Coach Jeff Tedford can turn anybody into an All-American QB. The defense is a little iffy, but they are all talents who just need some playing time.

END OF SEASON PREDICTIONS

This set of rankings factor in their schedule. I will give my predicted 2005 record for each team in parentheses.

1. USC (12-0) - The schedule is very easy, so the only question is whether or not there is enough desire to win this year. I say yes. Matt Leinart won’t be back if he doesn’t have the desire. Winston Justice almost quit the team after being suspended for the entire 2004, but he wants to show people what kind of a person he really is. This will be a better year for the Trojans because of depth at OL and WR. Matt Leinart’s elbow is finally pain-free after hurting for most of 2003 and 2004. And you can count on Reggie Bush getting more touches this year. Every team from Hawaii to UCLA will be bringing their “A” game to topple the Goliath of college football, but the offense and Pete Carroll’s defense has been there done that. Don’t be surprised if SC doesn’t blow everyone out by 30 points. USC had their close victories last year against Stanford, Oregon State, and UCLA, so they can definitely win the close games.

2. Purdue (11-0) – The AP ranks Purdue at #15 while USA Today has them at #16, so why are they #3 in the Bo Shue Poll? Well if you have read my Big Ten review, you wouldn’t have to ask that, but I’ll be generous enough to fill you in. Their schedule does not include Michigan or Ohio State. Purdue is coming off of a 5-loss season. Championship teams such as the 2000 OU Sooners, 2002 OSU Buckeyes, and 2003 LSU Tigers all had 5 losses their previous season. Auburn tigers lost 5 before going undefeated in 2004, so did the 2002 Iowa Hawkeyes, 2004 VTech Hokies, 2000 Washington Huskies and the 1998 Arizona Wildcats. Other than the schedule and the 5-loss factor, there are also lots of talent on this squad.

3. Texas (10-1) - Although the schedule is tough, I think Texas control their destiny as long as they let Vince Young be Vince Young. We know he is a big-game performer from the Rose Bowl last year. I just hope he plays that way against OU this year. It will also be tough to win in Columbus and College Station, but beating OU would be a great confidence builder for Vince Young’s senior year. Being #2 in the preseason polls means that even with a loss early to Ohio State, Texas will get to the Rose Bowl if they win out the rest of their games if there are less than 2 undefeated teams.

4. Louisville (11-0) – I like Louisville to go undefeated since they have 3 bye weeks and only 5 road games. However, the Big East is like the newest Mid-Major conference, there’s just no weight in that schedule. Not one team on their schedule is on the AP or USA today’s preseason polls.

5. Tennessee (11-1) – This is a tough schedule for a talented team. Back-to-back road games against Florida and LSU will be difficult, but I don’t think Phillip Fulmer will lose to 1st year coaches. I think they’ll handle Georgia at home, but just when everything seems to be dandy, Alabama shocks the Volunteers in Tuscaloosa where Fulmer is well-hated. Fulmer should be happy just for getting out of there alive.

6. Michigan (9-2) – This is the year Michigan ends the 5-year streak in which they lose their 1st road game of the season; however, they’re going to fall to Michigan State in their 2nd road game of 2005. The game at Iowa will also be lost due to Drew Tate’s ability to pick apart a weak Michigan secondary. They will win against Ohio State, having the game in da Big House.

7. Oklahoma (9-2) – This is the year they will finally lose to Texas. The season finale at Texas Tech is also a losable game for the Sooners. OU only plays 3 road games on the season so the youngsters on the team might not be able to adapt to a lively Texas Tech crowd. The quarterback battle is settled for now, but there is no doubt in my mind there will be arguments over who should start throughout the season.

8. Florida State (9-3) – Florida State will beat Miami (FL) in their season opener simply because FSU has a proven running game, while Miami is breaking in new starters at QB and RB. The Seminoles will suffer losses to Boston College and Florida on the road while losing to NC State, who has a great defensive line, at home. Despite the record, FSU will capture the ACC title by beating VTech in the championship game.

9. Florida (9-2) – The losses will come against Tennessee and LSU, but big wins against Georgia, South Carolina, and Florida State will keep Florida fans from launching www.FireUrbanMeyer.com. Never mind, the site is already up, but is maintained by Gators to prevent Meyer-bashing. You never know, the contents of the site might change quickly after a few losses. Even though Florida beats Florida State, FSU will be higher in the polls due to their conference champion status.

10. Miami (9-2) – The two losses come against Florida State and Virginia Tech, both road games. I don’t like how the ACC schedules Miami vs. Florida State on the 1st weekend, which will be a sluggish game ultimately costing Miami.

11. Ohio State (9-2) – Big wins against Texas and Iowa will launch OSU into the top 5, but they will let up against a tough Penn State team in Death Valley. They will lose to Michigan in Ann Arbor in a game down to the wires. I just think Michigan has too much firepower on offense even though Ohio State has a great defense to counter. Since the loss comes late in the season, it will drop them in the polls below other 2-loss teams.

12. LSU (9-3) – The Tigers will be set for next year, but I just don’t think the players will adapt to a new regime quick enough to handle Tennessee. I think they will lose to them twice, one in the regular season and the other in the conference championship game. Alabama will upset LSU in Tuscaloosa.

13. Penn State (8-3) – Joe Pa will be back in my opinion for 2005. I love the defense which is capable of shutting down any offense in the country. However, they won’t be able to score much against Michigan or Purdue. They will also lose on the road to Michigan State due to their mobile QB Drew Stanton.

14. Alabama (8-3) – This will be a big year for Brodie Croyle and that tough defense from 2004. I have them upsetting Tennessee and LSU, but will lose to Florida, Mississippi State, and Auburn. I believe the Tide will overlook the Bulldogs just before taking on LSU, costing them a chance to go to the conference championship game.

15. UTEP (11-1) – The Conference USA champs will lose the away game at Memphis, but wins the rest including the CUSA championship game. UTEP will be this year’s mid-major team of the year considering my other candidates such as Boise State, Miami (OH), Bowling Green, Fresno State, Toledo, and North Texas all have considerably tougher non-conference schedules than the Miners.