2006 College Football Preview
I believe I have finally recovered from the bittersweet, ultra-hyped, emotionally-exhausting, yet unforgettable 2005 college football season. Speculations of the USC-Texas matchup lasted almost the entire season which became a game of a lifetime, but nevertheless, left me worn out and indifferent as a fan of both teams due to the amount of hype for the game. The thing I hated most was the bickering between USC and UT with the lack of recognition for Reggie Bush’s Heisman win from Vince Young and the complete lack of class from Matt Leinart during his Rose Bowl post-game interview. Although a lesser game for the average fan, I enjoyed the 2004 National Championship game much more when one of my teams (USC) completely destroyed the arch rival (Oklahoma) of my other team (Texas). I hope 2006 would be a less mentally stressful season by not pitting USC, Texas, or Tennessee against each other, yet if either two gets to the championship game, what a feat it would be, since none are heavy favorites like last year.
I definitely will have less time to work on this year’s preview, but having written last year’s preview saves me much time for this year. I won’t have time to review every team in the 6 major conferences, but I will give my prediction for the top 15 teams at the end of the season with full reviews followed by teams 16-25 without reviews.
TOP 25
Main factors going into my top 25 picks include the team’s talent, chemistry, and schedule. There is not a solid pick for the top team this year, so it is likely that there won’t be an undefeated national champion this year, meaning teams with early tough games are still likely in the chase after a loss. Predicted regular season records are in ( ) after the team name followed by who I think they will lose to.
1. Texas (11-1) lose at Nebraska (or Texas Tech)
Offense – Everyone tends to write off Texas as a contender just because Vince Young is gone, but recruiting gurus should know that the state of Texas churns out football talent like they do cattle, and a majority of them goes to the University of Texas. Colt McCoy (#11QB) and Jevan Snead (#4QB) will attempt to do the impossible and replace Vince Young. One would expect a significant drop in production from the QB spot, but in recent years, several great QBs have been replaced by adequate successors such as Carson Palmer by Matt Leinart at USC, Chris Simms by Vince Young at Texas, David Greene by DJ Shockley at Georgia, Stefan LeFors by Brian Brohm at Louisville, Kyle Boller by Aaron Rodgers at Cal, and Rex Grossman by Chris Leak at Florida. McCoy will get the 1st start of the season after having a great off season, but Snead will definitely see some playing time. I believe a good offense is based on a good offensive line. The Texas OL should not see a significant drop off despite losing tackle Jonathan Scott and guard Will Allen. Tackle Justin Blalock (#7OL), center Lyle Sendlein, and guard Kasey Studdard will lead the way here. Running behind it will be sophomore sensation Jamaal Charles (#6RB), Henry Melton, and 5th year senior Selvin Young. Speedster Ramonce Taylor will transfer due to academic and legal troubles and will be missed, but his departure will not be crippling to the Longhorns. Mack Brown will likely start Selvin Young at the beginning of the season, but it would be ludicrous to think Charles getting less than 15 carries a game. The experienced OL will give whoever the QB enough time to throw to a deep and under-appreciated group of receivers. Limas Sweed (#17WR), Billy Pittman, Nate Jones (#21WR), and Jordan Shipley (#7WR) are the main receivers. I expect one of these receivers will become a go-to receiver by midseason. Sweed seems like that person with the acrobatic touchdown catch in the 4th quarter against Ohio State last year.
Defense – Texas has always had good defensive lines with past players like Casey Hampton, Shaun Rogers, Cory Redding, Marcus Tubbs, and Rod Wright. This year’s line is no different with DT Frank Okam (#2DL), DE Tim Crowder (#17DL), DE Brian Robison, DE Brian Orakpo, and blue chip recruit DE Eddie Jones (#2DL). Okam and Crowder are the cream of the crop All-American candidates. Returning starters Robert Killebrew (#15LB) and Rashad Bobino will be joined by another highly touted recruit Sergio Kindle (#1LB), who was in for the spring. The 6-4 225 Kindle played linebacker and running back in high school and has the makings to become one of Texas’ all time greats. Thorpe Award winner Michael Huff (1st round Oakland) and Cedric Griffin (2nd round Minnesota) are playing on Sundays now, but FS Michael Griffin (#20DB), CB Tarell Brown (#11DB), and CB Aaron Ross has the coaches sleeping just fine at night.
Prediction – I expect Texas to fully play to their potentials now that Mack Brown got the monkey off of his back by winning the national championship. I expect offensive coordinator Greg Davis to be more aggressive with his play calling in big games (against Ohio State and Oklahoma). The schedule is a tough grind for Texas, but I’m not worried about Ohio State or Oklahoma, instead, I’m worried about the 3 road games in 4 games in late October and early November where Texas has to play Nebraska, Texas Tech, and a potentially dangerous Kansas State team in that stretch on the road. I expect Texas to start the season 7-0, but stumble against either Nebraska or Texas Tech. But despite the loss, the Longhorns will still win the Big XII Championship game and repeat as the National Champions.
2. USC (11-1) lose at Arizona
Offense – Skeptics are out on the Trojans’ ability to reload on offense. Who wouldn’t when they lose Heisman trophy winners Matt Leinart and Reggie Bush, all-time USC touchdown leader Lendale White, All-American linemen Winston Justice, Deuce Lutui, Fred Matua, and senior TE Dominique Byrd? This sounds like the 2003 season when similarly, the Trojans had to replace a Heisman trophy-winning QB (Carson Palmer), two starting RBs (Sultan McCullough and Malaefou MacKenzie), and 4 year starter guard Zach Wilson. The similarity doesn’t just stop there. With all the changes in 2003, the WR corps returns 2-1000 yard receivers in stud Mike Williams and senior Keary Colbert. Likewise, the only constant on the 2006 Trojan offense is the receiving corps. Stud Dwayne Jarrett (#4WR) and senior WR Steve Smith (#3WR) are both potential All-Americans who bring experience, size, speed, and leadership to the young offense. Backing them up are former high school stars Patrick Turner (#3WR), TE Fred Davis (#3WR), and true frosh David Ausberry (#2WR), Jamere Holland (#4), and Vidal Hazelton (#6WR) who might see the most action out of the frosh WRs. Throwing to these golden targets is former top high school QB prospect John David Booty (#1QB). After 3 years of waiting, it is finally Booty’s turn to run things. Despite back problems, Booty has been named the starter over Mark Sanchez (#2QB) who might be the next John David Booty, a QB with the skills, but no playing time. In 2003, two true frosh took over at running back. I look for the same this year as true frosh Stafon Johnson (#3RB), Emmanuel Moody (#6RB), Allen Bradford (#3LB), and CJ Gable (#9RB) all looked impressive in August scrimmages. However, the starting job is not theirs yet. In 2003, White and Bush were impressive as freshmen, but Hershel Dennis started all 12 games. I expect Chauncey Washington (#12RB) and Desmond Reed to battle for the starting job at running back. All-Conference-caliber linemen Ryan Kalil and Sam Baker return to anchor a talented group which includes former #1 offensive line prospect Jeff Byers, Chilo Rachal, Kyle Williams, and Drew Radovich (#5OL).
Defense – Continuing the eerie resemblance of the 2003 season, the strong safety position is open for competition with the departure of 3 year starter and All-American Darnell Bing. 2003 saw a similar situation when senior Troy Polamalu, who was the heart and soul of the defense, graduated. There is rumor that LB Dallas Sartz will be moving to the SS position, but Kevin Ellison and true frosh Allen Bradford, who has yet to settle on a position, might also take the position. Josh Pinkard has the FS position locked up while the corners will be manned by Kevin Thomas, Cary Harris, and Terrell Thomas amongst others. The linebackers will be very strong with no significant losses from last year. Keith Rivers (#2LB) is my pick for USC’s defensive MVP in 2006. Oscar Lua, Brian Cushing (#5LB), Thomas Williams (#8LB), Rey Maualuga (#1LB), and Sartz will combine for the majority of the playing time at linebacker. The defensive line has two future top picks on it in DT Sedrick Ellis (#8DL) and DE Lawrence Jackson (#6DL). Jr. Jeff Schweiger (#3DL) is no slouch either.
Prediction – I had a tough time predicting USC’s 11-1 record for 2006. There is no way USC can go undefeated again with so many uncertainties, yet the Trojans host the 4 most likely teams to beat them in Nebraska, Arizona State, California, and Notre Dame. Arkansas is a dangerous road game but there’s no way they can upset USC with a rookie QB and offensive coordinator and without star RB Darren McFadden. So I settled on Arizona. Yes, coming off of back to back 3-win seasons, I expect them to beat USC in Tucson in much of the same fashion as how Cal upset USC in 2003. I think it is interesting to point out that not only is the 2006 Trojans very similar to the 2003 Trojans, they are virtually mirror images of the 2005 Auburn Tigers! Auburn lost QB Jason Campbell, RB Carnell Williams, and RB Ronnie Brown in the 2005 draft and ended up losing to Georgia Tech in its first game in 2005 against a tough non-conference team (Georgia Tech). However, they did bounce back and ended with a 9-2 record. The Trojans (who beat Campbell, Williams, and Brown’s Tigers in 2003) also face a stiff non-conference opponent to start the season (Arkansas) on the road. In 2003, nobody gave USC a chance on the road against a top 5 Auburn team and all they did was demolish them 23-0. Expect the same this year.
3. Ohio State (10-2) lose at Texas, at Iowa
Offense – One of the finest offensive machines in the country, The Ohio State Buckeyes are the early favorites for the National Championship due to it. Troy Smith leads the way as the pre-season All-American at quarterback. His ability to beat opponents with his legs and arm will cause much chaos in opposing defenses. After alternating series with Justin Zwick (#7QB) in the game against Texas where head coach Jim Tressel opted for Zwick over Smith for the last series (Zwick was sacked for a safety as Ohio State lost by 3 points), Smith took over the rest of the season and dazzled. He will be protected well by 4 returning starters on the line. The left tackle position will be handed to the prize of last year’s recruiting class, Alex Boone (#2OL) who started 4 games last year. The running backs possess depth and talent as incumbent Antonio Pittman returns from a 1331 yard season. He is backed up by Maurice Wells (#11RB) and true frosh Chris Wells (#1RB). The wide receiver duo of Anthony Gonzalez (4.29 in the 40) and Ted Ginn Jr. (4.22 in 40) will keep the safeties honest. Senior WR Roy Hall has a 6-3, 240 frame that he uses as a good down-field blocker.
Defense – None of the defensive back 7 returns in 2006. Although DTs David Patterson (#11DL) and Quinn Pitcock (#11DL) will anchor the line sufficiently, there won’t be much support behind them. It’s hard to replace AJ Hawk, Anthony Schlegel, and Bobby Carpenter, all of whom were drafted by the NFL. However, John Kerr returns as the WLB. If you remember, Kerr had 114 tackles as a true frosh at Indiana before transferring to Ohio State 2 seasons ago. And as a true powerhouse program, there will be plenty of talents to fill the spots. It’s just a matter of whether they’ll fulfill their potentials this season for Ohio State to play for the National Championship. Just to name some names in the front seven, DE Jay Richardson, DE Vernon Gholston, DE Lawrence Wilson, DE Alex Barrow, MLB James Laurinaitis, SLB Marcus Freeman, and MLB Larry Grant. Ashton Youboty, Donte Whitner, and Nate Salley are all gone from the secondary in pursuit for NFL careers. They’ll likely be replaced by a handful of underclassmen in rFr. Andre Amos, So. Malcolm Jenkins, So. Jamario O’Neal, So. Nick Patterson, rFr. Anderson Russell, and others.
Prediction – As the experts say, offense sells tickets and defense wins championships right? Well, it seems like both the AP and coaches disregarded this common knowledge. They can’t be serious in picking a team that is returning only 2 starters on defense to win the National Championship. With this young and uncoordinated defense, I won’t be surprised if Ohio State loses their first 2 games, however, I think the Buckeyes will narrowly escape Northern Illinois like they did Marshall in 2004 and San Diego State in 2003. No such luck against Texas in Austin, as Texas will take over the #1 position in both polls with a victory. I also think Iowa will beat Ohio State after a tough win against Penn State. OSU should cruise to the bowl game the remainder of the way. Michigan will be a tough game, but the defense should have gelled by then, and the game is in the Horseshoe. I admit this is a talented offense, but to think Jim Tressel has an explosive offense is just too weird. Tressel is known for being a conservative, ground-pounding, defensive-oriented coach.
4. Louisville (11-1) lose at Rutgers
Offense – All the talk in the Big East is about how West Virginia is going to take that next step and challenge for the National Championship after beating Georgia in last year’s Sugar Bowl. However, I think Louisville will be the team to beat with their balanced offense featuring pro-style QB Brian Brohm (#8QB) and big back Michael Bush (1,877 rushing yards in last 2 yrs). Last year was the first year when both players assumed full-time duty at their respective positions, so I expect them to put up gaudy numbers this year. Mario Urrutia will prove to be a dangerous deep threat at WR if he stays healthy this year. Although the skills positions are loaded, the offensive line is questionable as the squad loses 36 starts from last year in Travis Leffew, Jason Spitz, and Jeremy Darveau. A pair of JC transfers will fill in after sitting out last year. They are tackles Marcus Gordon and Marcel Benson, each with a 6-6, 315+ pound frame, but they might have to battle a pair of sophomores in T George Bussey and G Danny Barlowe. Sr. Renardo Foster (6-7, 322) will also get a shot at the tackle position.
Defense – All 4 starters from the secondary are back. Even though last year’s squad ranked a lowly #83 in passing defense, there’s no replacement for experience as CB Rod Council, CB William Gay, SS Jon Russell, and FS Brandon Sharp combines for 51 starts in their collegiate careers. Nate Harris leads returning players with 66 tackles and 7 sacks from last year at the MLB position. Abe Brown at WLB has great speed (4.45) along with his 2 year starting experience. It’s good and dandy that 6 of 7 starters return from the back 7, but the big question on defense is: Who is going to replace Dumervil and Stanley? Elvis Dumervil, 1st team All-American, 2005 Big East Defensive Player of the Year, takes his 20 sacks from the defensive end position last year to the NFL. Defensive tackle Montavious Stanley was a run stuffer who also was drafted by the NFL. Without these two on the line, the superb linebackers might be neutralized by opposing blockers who work their way past the line. On the bright side, Amobi Okoye is an All-American caliber lineman who can help mold youngsters like Adrian Grady, LT Walker, Deantwan Whitehead, and Aundre Henderson.
Prediction – The reason I pick Louisville over West Virginia is because of their balanced attack I already mentioned, the fact they play WV at home, and the fact that Louisville would have already played a big game against Miami prior to the matchup against WV. Last year, Louisville blew a 17 point lead in the 4th quarter against the Mountaineers at Morgantown. Two years ago, Louisville almost shocked Miami in their own backyard, proving that they can hang with the big boys. I’m sure this team has learned from those experiences. You might ask, if you predict them to beat Miami and West Virginia, the 2 toughest opponents the Cardinals will face all year, what prevents you from placing them in the BCS Championship game? With big victories, come big let downs. There are 2 very dangerous games following Miami and West Virginia, at Kansas State and at Rutgers. I think Louisville will sneak by KSU, but Rutgers and their running game behind Ray Rice and Brian Leonard will be too much for the young defensive line. But when it comes down to it, I just don’t think they play a strong enough schedule in the Big East.
5. Auburn (10-2) lose at South Carolina, Arkansas
Offense – Last year would have been a spectacular season if not for the 1st and last games, losing to Georgia tech to end a 15-game winning streak and losing to an inferior Wisconsin team in what was Barry Alvarez’s last game. Auburn was able to win with pretty much the same formula as when QB Jason Campbell and RBs Carnell Williams and Ronnie Brown were still on campus, run the ball and pass just enough to keep defenses honest. Although QB Brandon Cox (#20QB) is no Jason Campbell, he proved to be an efficient enough QB to keep Auburn on the winning side. After getting 1 year under his belt, he will be looked upon for a bigger role in 2006. The focus of most opposing defenses will be RB Kenny Irons. The South Carolina transfer didn’t raise many eyebrows at the beginning of 2005, but finished with 1,293 rushing yards, beating out some decent backs in the process (Brad Lester, Tre Smith, and Carl Stewart). This is considered to be one of the best groups of RBs in the country, but I don’t think there is anyone outstanding other than maybe Irons. This group won’t have the luxury of running behind LT Marcus McNeil (2nd round SD), but guards Ben Grubbs and Tim Duckworth are back. WRs Devin Aromashodu and Ben Obomanu will definitely be missed despite putting up less than 800 yards combined in 2005. Courtney Taylor is back from injury and is looking to live up to expectations. Frosh Tim Hawthorne (#7WR) is looking to make a splash in his 1st year, but will likely be playing behind Rodgeriqus Smith, Montez Billings (#20WR), Robert Dunn, and James Swinton.
Defense – The defense loses 2 All-Conference players in Stanley McClover and TJ Jackson, but returns Marquies Gunn and Quentin Groves at the end positions. The duo combined for 10.5 sacks in 2005. Will Herring returns as the leading tackler from 2005 and 2nd Team All-SEC selection at safety. He will be converted to a linebacker this year, joined by Karibi Dede who started 12 games last year. Kevin Sears and Tray Blackmon (#3DB) is a pair of DB converted to LB who are expected to fill the 3rd spot at linebacker. The secondary will be a strong one with 3 returning starters despite losing 2004 starter Montavis Pitts who only started 1 game last year. The senior Pitts has decided to transfer after being charged with DUI. Despite that, David Irons (2nd Team All-SEC) and Jonathan Wilhite should be more than adequate at the CB positions. Eric Brock and Aairon Savage will be the safeties. One area the secondary needs to improve upon is getting interceptions. Last year, no one on the team had more than 1 interception.
Prediction – To win the SEC, Auburn must do better than the -3 turnover ratio from last year. The Tigers were victims to 5 turnovers and 11 penalties against Georgia Tech in last year’s opener loss. It’s a shame how the scheduling committee in college football pits big games early in the season before teams warm up. Several examples include Tennessee-Florida (3rd week), Miami-Florida State (1st week), and Auburn-LSU (3rd week). These games not only have national title implications, but are also decides the winner of the conference and division! I think Auburn will win at home against LSU but lose in back-to-back weekends at South Carolina and Arkansas. The Gamecocks are the toughest road test for the Tigers while Arkansas would have Darren McFadden back by early October when they take on the Tigers. Auburn also goes to Tuscaloosa to take on arch rival Alabama in the Iron Bowl, but it hasn’t been much of a rivalry as of late where Auburn has won 4 straight. Florida and Georgia both comes to Auburn and should both put up a good fight, but I think Tommy Tuberville will be ready for both games.
6. West Virginia (11-1) lose at Louisville
Offense – QB Pat White and RB Steve Slaton burst onto the college football scene last year by combining for 2,080 yards on the ground, leading WV to an 11-1 record and a BCS bowl win. This year, many are counting on White and Slaton to accomplish even more, but I say, beware of the sophomore slump! We’ve seen it before, young 1st year players explode against opponents who didn’t expect them to do so only to have mediocre 2nd years. All the preseason hype will have that effect on White and Slaton as opposing defensive coordinators will without a doubt gameplan to stop this poor man’s version of Tommy Frazier and Lawrence Phillips. Center Dan Mozes is an All-American candidate leading the offensive line, which will be strong up the middle, but weaker on the edges with 2 new tackles starting. The receivers are more seasoned this year, featuring speedster Brandon Myles. No body put up big receiving numbers last year due to the new QB situation. In fact, WV did not record a 200 passing yard game all year and completed less than 10 passes 6 times! This unit should pick up the production in 2006 or it will get awfully difficult for the running game once defenders start stacking the line of scrimmage.
Defense – WV runs a 3-3-5 defense where an extra defensive back, called the Bandit, helps the passing game. The defensive line is quite impressive in 2005, yielding only 2.9 ypc, but could be misleading. WV held its first 4 opponents to under 100 yards rushing, but against the big boys, Virginia Tech, Louisville, and Georgia, the Mountaineers gave up 214, 182, and 224 respectively. Georgia ran for a whopping 8.0 ypc in the bowl game. DE Craig Wilson and DT Keilein Dykes returns as the starters. Several senior linebackers, Jay Henry, Kevin McLee, and Barry Wright will help the line in run defense. The defensive backfield only has SS Eric Wicks returning. This is another area that whittled as the season progressed, giving up 1006 passing yards and only recording 4 sacks in the last 4 games.
Prediction – WV plays virtually nobody for their non-conference slate. The toughest opponent might be Maryland at home. This is another touted team for the BCS Championship due to a good offense and easy schedule. Again, nobody looked at the porous defense and good luck from last year (+14 in turnovers). I expect Louisville to manhandle West Virginia after suffering the bitter, humiliating come-from-behind victory last year in Morgantown. I expect WV to win the rest of their games, but the 3 games wrapping up the season at Pittsburgh, against South Florida, and Rutgers will all be tossups. I have them at #6 in the poll since they start the season very high in both the AP and Coaches’ polls, meaning if they can go 11-1, they’ll be up there in the standings.
7. Miami (10-2) lose to Florida State, Louisville
Offense – This is the year #1 prospect QB Kyle Wright should live up to his potentials. As a junior, Wright enters his 2nd season as a starter after suffering a season full of sacks and injuries in 2005. If Wright is to break out, he would have done it without much help from his teammates. Starting RB Tyrone Moss (#2RB) has been suspended for the first 2 games of the season. Starting receiver Ryan Moore (#2WR) has been suspended indefinitely by head coach Larry Coker. The only returning starter on the line is center Anthony Wollschlager. This might actually be a good thing considering last year’s line gave up 35 sacks despite producing 2 NFL draft picks in RT Rashad Butler (3rd round CAR) and LT Eric Winston (3rd round HOU). Kyle Wright was sacked 9 times in last year’s game against Florida St. 2006 might be déjà vu all over again. One of the few bright spots on the offense is tight end Greg Olsen (#1TE) who looks to follow in the footsteps (on the field) of former Canes Jeremy Shockey and Kellen Winslow. I also look forward to seeing RB Charlie Jones (#8RB) and WR Lance Leggett (#11WR) step up in the absence of Moss and Moore.
Defense – Rocky McIntosh, Orien Harris, and Devin Hester are gone from the defense, but what’s left could form one of the best defenses in the country. Led by Baraka Atkins and Bryan Pata on the ends, the line should put up typical Hurricane numbers of 3 ypc and 30+ sacks on the season. LB Tavares Gooden (#7LB) returns from injury to anchor a very fine linebacking group featuring returning starter Jon Beason, Willie Williams (#1LB), and Romeo Davis among other talents. The front seven is a formidable group, however, what makes the Canes an elite defensive team is their secondary. Brandon Meriweather and sophomore Kenny Phillips (#2DB) are the best safety tandem in the country, combining for 202 tackles in 2005. They will makeup for the youth at cornerback where Kelly Jennings (1st round SEA) and Devin Hester (2nd round CHI) played last year.
Prediction – 2 of the first 3 games in 2006 will decide Miami’s fate for the season. Games against Florida State and at Louisville will be major hurdles to Miami’s quest for a championship year, especially when Tyrone Moss and Ryan Moore are suspended. Moss will be back for the Louisville game, but he will need to produce immediately. Miami also breaks in a new offensive coordinator so it might take longer for the offense to get rolling. Sandwiched between 4 road games toward the end of the season is a game against Virginia Tech at home that will decide the ACC Coastal Division. I believe if Miami manages to beat Florida State and Louisville early on, there’s no question they will beat Virginia Tech as well for a possible unbeaten season, however, I think the odds of that is too great, and Miami will lose 2 of the 3 crucial games. If Miami loses 4, this will be Larry Coker’s last year in Miami. Despite having an amazing record and a National Championship, Coker mostly won with prior coach Butch Davis’ players and program. Coker did maintain the recruiting magic of the Davis era, but has struggled to meet high expectations. Last year’s humiliating defeat to LSU in the Peach Bowl by the score of 40-3 really did not sit well with fans and critics.
8. Tennessee (10-2) lose at South Carolina, at Arkansas
Offense – The word is that QB Erik Ainge improved under new QB coach and offensive coordinator David Cutcliffe. By new, I actually mean this will be Cutcliffe’s 7th season as OC in Knoxville after serving as the OC from 1993-98 under Fulmer, followed by 6 years as the head coach at Ole Miss. Cutcliffe was responsible for the development of 2 overall #1 NFL draft picks in Peyton and Eli Manning. Last year’s, often controversial, rotation of QBs between Ainge and Rick Clausen led to a disastrous 5-6 season where Ainge never got into any kind of rhythm only completing 45.5% of his passes. Although Ainge will be pushed by Jonathan Crompton (#3QB), the starting QB job is his to lose. The injury to starting RB Gerald Riggs last year helped returning starter Arian Foster develop into a go-to back and the next in the long line of great Tennessee backs. Foster is looking for his 6th straight 100-yard game to start his career in the opener against Cal, but despite the production, there are a handful of talented backs chasing Foster in rFr. Montario Hardesty (#22RB), rFr. LaMarcus Coker (#18RB), and So. Ja’Kouri Williams (#15RB). Former offensive lineman, current head coach Phillip Fulmer ensures another talented OL, led by LT Arron Sears, who made my All-American team (See previous post). Center David Ligon moved to LG while Michael Frogg fills his spot. Eric Young (#4OL) and Anthony Parker makes up the right side of the line. Other talented linemen include C Josh McNeil (#9OL), G Jacques McClendon (#9OL), and T Chris Scott (#7OL). The receivers underachieved last year with the rotating QBs, but Robert Meachem (#5WR), Jayson Swain (#7WR), and Bret Smith (#10WR) should rebound nicely.
Defense – 5 starters were lost to the NFL draft in CB Jason Allen (1st round MIA), DE Parys Haralson (5th round SF), LB Omar Gaither (5th round PHI), DT Jesse Mahelona (5th round TEN), and LB Kevin Simon (7th round WAS). However, plenty of talents will be back including DT Justin Harrell who was 2nd Team All-SEC. He will be joined by blue-chippers Demonte Bolden (#6DL) and Turk McBride (#3DL). It will be tougher to replace last year’s linebackers, but Jerod Mayo (#22LB), Ryan Carl, and Marvin Mitchell will get first stabs at the jobs. Backups include Rico McCoy (#8LB), Ellix Wilson, and Adam Myers-White (#12DB). Jason Allen is gone, but everyone else from the secondary returns as InQuoris Johnson and Jonathan Wade will be the corners and Antwan Stewart and Jonathan Hefney the safeties. The star of last year’s recruiting class Demetrice Morley (#7DB) will also chip in at safety.
Prediction – Although Tennessee suffered a weak recruiting season due to the 5-6 record, the cupboard is far from empty. There are former top ten high school players at virtually every position and they usually go 2 or 3 deep. The defense was very good last year, yielding only 2.5 ypc and 907 totally rushing yards. In terms of the offense, I believe Cutcliffe will turn things around. The schedule is tough as always. The Volunteers has been scheduling the big boys for non-conference games in the last few years (Notre Dame in ’01, ’04, and ’05, Syracuse in ’01, Miami in ’02 and ’03). This will continue as California comes to town for the season opener (Tennessee will play at Cal in 2007, NC State, and UCLA in 2008). Cal hasn’t won any significant big games on the road recently, so I think Tennessee will handle them in Neyland. Although a tough schedule, the big games are fairly spread out, giving the Vols enough time to prepare for each. However, the downside of this is the potential to overlook weaker opponents. I think the first 4 games at home will be won despite 2 of them being top ten opponents. The only losses I believe will be to arch-nemesis Steve Spurrier’s Gamecocks and a talented Arkansas team, who might have found a QB by the November 11th game time. It will be a successful season if the Vols beat Florida, Georgia, and win a bowl game. I think they have enough talent and the right coaches to do those things.
9. California (9-3) lose at Tennessee, Arizona State, at USC
Offense – Jeff Tedford is known as a QB coach who excels in the passing game, but in the last few years, the running game has been his forte. For 3 straight years, Cal has had the leading rusher go over 1,000 yards and the backup over 600 yards. The trend started in 2003 when Adimchinobe Echemandu had 1,195 yards and JJ Arrington 607. In 2004, Arrington returned with an amazing 2,018 yards overshadowing then-sophomore Marshawn Lynch’s 628 yards. Last year, Lynch had 1,246 yards while his back up Justin Forsett had 999 on the ground. This year, both Lynch and Forsett are back to undoubtedly become the 2nd pair of 1,000 yard rushing teammates from the Pac-10 in 2 years (USC’s Bush and White both went over 1,000 yards last year). Part of the Cal running success is due to the offensive line. They lose 3 NFL draft picks including the rock from last year, tackle Ryan O’Callaghan. Erik Robertson and Scott Smith returns as starters while inexperienced players will battle for the other 3 spots. T Andrew Cameron, C Alex Mack, and G Noris Malele will start in the season opener, but expect Mike Tepper, Mike Gibson, and Bryan Deemer to push them. The QB position was up for grabs among Nate Longshore (#18QB), Joe Ayoob (JC#6QB), Steve Levy and Kyle Reed. Longshore, who was the starter last year until he broke a leg in the opener, won the job in the end. He will be throwing to highly touted WR DeSean Jackson (#1WR), Robert Jordan, and Lavelle Hawkins (JC#5WR), all of whom are capable playmakers.
Defense – Everyone says nobody (but USC) in the Pac-10 plays defense. Cal came close to joining USC last year, but still gave up 360 yards a game and 29 points per game in the last 7 games of the season including the bowl game. I expect big changes this year as speed and size are evident on the defense. The D-line returns all 4 starters headed by All-American candidate at tackle Brandon Mebane. The line of DE Abu Ma’afala, DT Matthew Malele (#14DL), DE Nu’u Tafisi (JC#21DL), and Mebane combined for 12.5 sacks and 13 tackles for loss. Ma’afala was able to beat out last year’s starter Phillip Mbakogu (#11DL) who had 5.5 sacks last year. Linebacker Desmond Bishop (JC#3LB) is on many people’s list for best linebackers in the nation and is joined by Justin Moye and Worrell Williams. The defensive back is manned by a savvy All-American caliber senior in Daymeion Hughes who had 12 passes broken up and 5 interceptions last year.
Prediction – Writers are pegging the Golden Bears as a dark horse for the National Championship. They’ve got the offense and defense to beat anyone and a schedule tough enough to be respected by poll voters. But before talks of National Championship, they have to prove they’re 2nd best in the Pac-10 first. Everyone expect Cal to give USC fits last year, but all they did was lose 35-10 and go 4-4 in conference to finish a disappointing 4th in the conference. The 2006 road schedule will be killer, going to Tennessee’s 100,000 plus crowd, Washington State, and USC. I think the offensive line won’t have enough time to gel and the offense will sputter against the Vols. Arizona State will be a tough game after cakewalk Portland State. The last 2 road games of the season could spell losing streak for Cal since Arizona is a rising team in the Pac-10 and USC, well, they’re USC. I don’t think this will be Cal’s year, but I respect what Tedford has done with the program, turning average high school prospects into productive college players at a demanding academic institute. You can tell Tedford wants to engage stiffer competition by scheduling Tennessee for a home-and-home and Minnesota in 2006.
10. LSU (9-3) lose at Auburn, at Florida, at Tennessee
Offense – As a Texas fan, it’s funny and ironic to think that top QB prospect Ryan Perrilloux (#1QB) from last year picked LSU over Texas because he wanted to play right away. A year later, he’s the 3rd string QB at LSU where he would have likely been the starter at Texas. This is good news for LSU fans nevertheless. Starter JaMarcus Russell (#4QB) suffered injuries toward the end of the season but regained his starter status. Backup Matt Flynn (#17QB) led the 40-3 demolition of Miami in the Peach Bowl in place of Russell. Protecting them will be a slightly weaker line after the departure of Andrew Whitworth, Rudy Niswanger, and Nate Livings. Back are Brian Johnson and Will Arnold as the guards. rFr Ciron Black (#21OL) will be the blindside protector of Russell. The running production will be a bit down this year. Joseph Addai is gone while Justin Vincent (#9RB) and Alley Broussard (#8RB) are both coming back from ACL injuries. Broussard is the likely starter after having almost a year to recover from his injury. True frosh Charles Scott comes in as the #7 prospect in the country. On paper, LSU has the most talented group of receivers in the country, comprised of Early Doucet (#1WR), Xavier Carter (#2WR), and Amp Hill (#12WR), however, none of the three will start. Instead, Seniors Craig Davis and Dwayne Bowe will remain starters.
Defense – The defense put up some good numbers last year, holding opponents to less than 100 yards rushing per game while registering 38 sacks. Somehow, Appalachian State rushed for 176 against the defense despite being shutout by the Tigers. Only DE Chase Pittman and LB Ali Highsmith are back starting in the front 7. Despite losing 3 draft picks on the line, LSU has traditionally been strong here. There are many highly touted players including Glenn Dorsey (#7DL), Ricky Jean-Francois (#14DL), Marlon Favorite (#19DL), Tyson Jackson, Charles Alexander, and Tremaine Johnson. The linebacking unit makes up experience with talent where Darry Beckwith (#20LB) and Luke Sanders (#9LB) will start alongside Highsmith. Making up for the inexperience up front is the best secondary in the SEC. LaRon Landry (#18DB) leads this unit as one of the best free safeties in the country. SS Jessie Daniels and CB Chevis Jackson are returning starters. Jonathan Zenon fills the other CB position after getting in 4 starts last year.
Prediction – LSU only has 4 road games this year. Unfortunately, they are against Auburn, Florida, Tennessee, and Arkansas. I predict the Tigers will lose all of those games except against Arkansas. The reasons are the 3-headed monster at quarterback, the injuries at running back, the underachieving receivers, and a doubtful line. Defense will keep these games from being blow outs, but defenses at Auburn, Florida, and Tennessee are equally good. The home schedule might look like a breeze but Arizona and Fresno State look like potential upsets. Alabama also has a decent chance of squeezing out a win in Baton Rouge.
11. Penn State (9-3) lose at Ohio State, at Minnesota, at Wisconsin
Offense – Michael Robinson’s senior season rejuvenated a traditional power house with an 11-1 record. This year, the team will be handed to QB Anthony Morelli (#6QB) who I called to start last year over Robinson. Morelli is less agile but has the size (6-4, 220) and arm to be an NFL QB. His targets will be a trio of sophomores in blue chipper Derrick Williams (#1DB), Deon Butler, and Jordan Norwood. If 2006 is anything like 2005, expect true frosh Chris Bell (#5WR) to chip in some catches. Williams was electric at times last year, but will need to recover from a broken arm. With Morelli’s arm and all the speed at WR, I expect Penn State to score lots of points through the year. Tony Hunt was a receiver but converted to RB and had 1,047 rushing yards last year. The line is a bit weaker this year losing 4 starters during the offseason, but the most important part returns in LT Levi Brown with 34 career starts.
Defense – Penn State has the best linebackers in the country. With 3 returning starters, I think the 2006 Lions linebackers are even better than the 2005 Ohio State Buckeye linebackers. The star of the group is OLB Paul Posluszny, who won the Butkus and Bednarik awards, turned down the NFL and returns for his senior season. OLB Dan Connor (#3LB) can fly with 4.55 speed. He started the last 7 games last year after being suspended during the first 3. Tim Shaw started all 12 last year and will be the MLB. Not only are the starters impressive, this is also a deep group with Jerome Hayes, Tyrell Sales, and Sean Lee. The D-line loses Tamba Hai (1st round KC) and only returns Jay Alford as the starting DT who had 8.5 sacks last year. Similarly, the defensive backfield loses all 4 starters including star CB Alan Zemaitis (4th round TB). Justin King (#4DB) will start at CB and is expected to excel at the position. Sophomores Tony Davis, Spencer Ridenhour, and senior Donnie Johnson are the other projected starters back there.
Prediction – Joe Paterno did the unexpected last year to go 11-1 after combining for 7 wins in the previous 2 years. Penn State came within 1 second from going 12-0 as Michigan miraculously scored a touchdown to beat the Nittany Lions. A lot of last year’s core are gone in QB Michael Robinson, DE Tamba Hali, and CB Alan Zemaitis, but Penn state returns virtually all the position players on offense and the best linebackers in the country. The season starts with a couple of tough road games at Notre Dame and at Ohio State. If Penn State can split these two, it will setup nicely for the rest of the season. I expect Penn State to over look Minnesota right before they beat Michigan at home. Wisconsin is another team that can sneak up on the Lions. This is a season where lots of sophomores and freshmen on the team can develop into star players. Next year should be a title hopeful year for the Lions.
12. Florida (9-3) lose at Tennessee, at Auburn, at Florida State
Offense – Chris Leak (#2QB) returns for his senior year and 2nd year under the Urban Meyer regime. Although Meyer brings in star recruit Tim Tebow (#3QB) who is more mobile, I expect the QB job to be Leak’s to lose. All the receivers return other than leading receiver Chad Jackson (2nd round NE). Andre Caldwell (#1WR), Dallas Baker, and Jemalle Cornelius (#14WR) will be more than capable to make up for the lost of Jackson. The back up receivers are also very talented in Kenneth Tookes, who might start, Nyan Boateng (#8WR), and Percy Harvin (#1WR), this year’s star recruit. DeShawn Wynn (#8RB) returns as a senior starter at RB although the running game has not been very good averaging only 3.9 ypc last year. The RB group doesn’t look very impressive in the spring, so don’t be surprised if youngsters Markus Manson, Kestahn Moore, Chevron Walker, or Mon Williams see more action as the season progresses. Another area of concern is the offensive line, losing every starter besides C Steve Rissler who moves over from guard. There will be talented players playing the line, but the lack of experience will definitely hurt.
Defense – There are lots of experience on the defensive line. DE Joe Cohen, DT Steven Harris, and DT Marcus Thomas return as starters while DE Ray McDonald will be returning from an injury to reclaim his starting job at defensive end in 2006. Earl Everett (#12LB) and Brandon Siler (#22DL) return as the leading tacklers from 2005. Siler already has 3 years of starting experience despite being only a junior. The defensive backfield loses 3 starters but has talented Reggie Lewis, Avery Atkins (#14DB), Kyle Jackson (#5DB) and Tony Joiner vying for those starting spots. Starting free safety Reggie Nelson (#10DB) brings back 46 tackles and 4 sacks. This unit should be the best defense in the SEC.
Prediction – Traditionally, the Urban Meyer effect is really felt in his 2nd year at a school. I expect the same here at Florida, however, it is awfully hard to improve on a 9-3 season. I do expect the offense to run a lot smoother in the second year. The defense will be solid but what’s keeping this from a 10-win season is that Florida has too many big road games. Florida goes to Tennessee, Auburn, and Florida State this year and plays Georgia in a neutral site (Jacksonville, FL). I expect Auburn to lose those road games, but they will beat Georgia and LSU (LSU is the homecoming game, imagine that!). What is with squeezing in Western Carolina in late November?
13. Michigan (9-3) lose at Notre Dame, at Penn State, at Ohio State
Offense – Most of the offensive weapons return from an unfulfilling 2005 season. QB Chad Henne (#1QB) barely completed over half of his passes (51.4%) in the 4 losses to Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Ohio State despite a good 23 to 8 TD/INT ratio on the year. RB Mike Hart (#11RB) had a sensational freshman year in 2004, but was plagued by injuries last year and only had 662 yards on the ground. Highly touted freshman Kevin Grady (#2RB) filled in for Hart and had 483 yards in 2 starts. With the O-line returning T Jake Long and G Adam Kraus, I expect both the running game and passing game to improve. WR Jason Avant led the team with 1007 yards last season and will be missed in 2006, but Steve Breaston and Mario Manningham (#6WR) are both back. Other receivers include Adrian Arrington (#10WR), Carl Tabb (#12WR), and Doug Dutch (#14WR). The offensive line replaces 3 starters, but got replenished with a good recruiting class including Stephen Schilling (#4OL) and Justin Boren (#11OL).
Defense – The Wolverines run a 3-4 defense which is rarely used in college. Alan Branch returns with his 5 sacks at the end position. Although Gabe Watson is gone at the nose, Terrance Taylor (#11DL) and Marques Walton will compete for that position. Will Johnson (#29DE) will likely start at the other DE position although LB LaMarr Woodley (#2LB) often lines up as a DE with success as can be seen from his 7 sacks last year. Top tackler LB Dave Harris is back along with LB Prescott Burgess (#1DB) who was the #3 tackler last year. CB Leon Hall (#23DB) has been tagged by many as a preseason All-American. He will be joined by So. Morgan Trent who got in 3 starts last year at cornerback. Safeties Jamar Adams and Ryan Mundy (#5DB) are back for 2006. Last year, Mundy was lost due to injury but the Wolverines did surprisingly well without him. They will definitely get a boost with the return of Mundy.
Prediction – Many suspects that Lloyd Carr’s job is in jeopardy after a 7-5 season in 2005 and losing to Ohio State for the 4th time in 5 tries. This will be a crucial year for Carr, and I think he will respond positively by challenging Ohio State for the Big Ten championship. I predict Michigan to lose road games at Notre Dame, Penn State, and Ohio State, but all those are definitely winnable games. Michigan is my dark horse pick for the National Championship since they are much like the 2004 Auburn Tigers coming off of a disappointing season. As you remember, the 2004 Auburn team went from preseason favorites to win the championship to a 7-5 squad at the end of the year. No body really expected much out of them the following year despite having the core of the group back. Head coach Tommy Tuberville’s job was also in limbo after rumors that Louisville head coach Bobby Petrino will take his job. All Auburn did was going 13-0 in 2004. The most obvious similarities between the 2006 Wolverines and the 2004 Tigers is that both has a very good QB, 2 dominating running backs, an All-American caliber corner, and head coaches on the hot seat.
14. Notre Dame (8-4) at Georgia Tech, Penn State, at Michigan State, at USC
Offense – Senior QB Brady Quinn (#12QB) is projected to have a phenomenal season after blossoming under Charlie Weis last year. His favorite target, WR Jeff Samardzija (#22WR) had only 24 catches in 2 years prior to last year, when he caught 77 for 1249 yards and 15 touchdowns. The underappreciated running game is spearheaded by Darius Walker (#13RB) and will be supplemented by Travis Thomas (#22RB) and true frosh sensation James Aldridge (#2RB). Although I really like Darius Walker, the running game has disappeared from time to time last year, gaining 44 yards against BYU, 48 against Tennessee, and 62 against Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl loss. LT Ryan Harris (#18OL) anchors a line that has much talent, but limited experience. This year’s recruiting class includes 3 top offensive linemen in Sam Young (#1OL), Matt Carufel (#5OL), and Chris Stewart (#14OL). If the line holds up, this will be the top offense in the country.
Defense – There are many skeptics for the Irish defense in 2006. After seeing Ohio State record big play after big play against Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl, speed has been the question for this squad. This year, CB Ambrose Wooden (#8CB) and SS Tom Zbikowski (#9QB) are returning starters, both having sub-4.3 speed. CB Mike Richardson and FS Chinedum Ndukwe are both returning starters in the backfield. This group gave up at least 300 yards passing in 5 straight games last year, including 408 yards on only 19 completions at Washington. ND fans are counting last year’s experience will lead to better results in 2006. The defensive line has many blue-chippers lining up, featuring team leader in sacks last year, Victor Abiamiri (#1DL) with 8. DTs Trevor Laws, Derek Landri, and DE Ronald Talley are the other projected starters. Maurice Crum is the only returning starter at linebacker where he’ll be joined by Joe Brockington and Anthony Vernaglia, forming a fairly weak linebacking corps.
Projection – Many polls list Notre Dame as preseason #1. Once again, those are the ones who fell in love with the offense and turned the other cheek on defense. Everyone remembered what an amazing game they played against USC, but they forget that Reggie Bush ran all over the defense in that game. In the 4th quarter on the crucial 4th down play near midfield, Notre Dame’s defensive backfield not only didn’t stop the conversion, they gave up a huge play that allowed the Trojans to get inside the redzone. Things didn’t improve as the season went on. Notre Dame gave up 317 passing yards to BYU, 239 yards rushing to Navy, and 347 passing to Stanford. Although those were all wins for the Irish, it showed how vulnerable Notre Dame is against good offensive teams. Everyone jumped on the bandwagon after they started the season 2-0 against ranked teams Pittsburgh and Michigan, 2 teams that combined for an underachieving 12-11 in 2005. Last year’s Fiesta Bowl was a reality check for Charlie Weis and crew, losing 34-20 to Ohio State, who racked up 617 total yards against Notre Dame. 2005 was a dream season for the Irish, but it seems eerily similar to 2002 when Tyrone Willingham went 10-2 and got blown out of the bowl game and fell to a 5-7 season in 2003. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a similar record in 2006.
15. Virginia Tech (8-4) lose at Boston College, Clemson, at Miami, at Wake Forest
Offense – There aren’t any big names on offense this year. Sean Glennon was named the starter after battling Cory Holt and Ike Whitaker (#9QB). All three are underclassmen who don’t bring a lick of experience and would rely heavily on the other 10 men on the field for the Hokies to have any chance to compete. The running backs also feature 2 sophomores and a redshirt freshman competing for the job. Branden Ore ran for 647 yards as a redshirt last year, but might have to share times with George Bell (#14RB). WRs Eddie Royal and Josh Morgan will be the targets for Glennon. The two will be joined by David Clowney who was the leading receiver from last year. The line loses 3 starters and doesn’t look like they will improve upon the 4.1 ypc and 34 sacks allowed from last year. Yeah, so basically, the VT offense looks like they’ll compete for the most anemic offense in the country.
Defense – As usual, the Hokies should have a pretty good defense, but the pressure is greater this year to make up for the lack of offensive firepower. Last year’s squad held 10 straight opponents under 160 yards passing at one point. 5 starters return from that defense, led by linebacker Vince Hall (#9LB) who led the team with 112 tackles last year. Xavier Adibi (#11LB) returns with 69 tackles in 2005 where rover Aaron Rouse returns with 77 tackles from last year. Chris Ellis is the only returning starter on the DL while the other 3 positions will be filled with semi-talented juniors and seniors. After losing NFL draft picks Jimmy Williams and Justin Hamilton, there might be a slight drop off in the secondary, but despite that, CB Brandon Flowers, Roland Minor, Victor Harris (#5DB), Safeties DJ Parker and Rouse will continue the trend of VT’s good pass defense. And it wouldn’t be complete without mentioning Tech’s special teams. Punter Nic Schmitt, who squats 605 (not a typo, 605 pounds!), will punt and possibly kick as well.
Prediction – So why is this team with an abysmal offense ranked in the top 10? Tech starts the season against Northeaster, UNC, Duke, and Cincinnati. That should be plenty of time for Frank Beamer and his staff to solidify the question marks (and there are many of them) on offense. Despite the youth, the running game should be able to carry the Hokies’ offense through those first 4 games. The defense could very well pitch 4 shutouts against the early opponents. However, after an off weak, a game at Boston College will be very tough. The back to back game against Clemson and at Miami just 2 weeks later will officially end Tech’s chances for the national title. The last road game at Wake Forest looks like an easy win, but I think the losses to Clemson and Miami will demoralize the team enough for the Demon Deacons to swoop in for a win.
16. Iowa 17. Arkansas18. Florida State 19. Georgia 20. Nebraska21. Utah22. Texas Tech23. Oklahoma 24. Clemson25. Arizona
